Assessing global resource use and greenhouse emissions to 2050, with ambitious resource efficiency and climate mitigation policies

Achieving sustainable development requires the decoupling of natural resource use and environmental pressures from economic growth and improvements in living standards. G7 leaders and others have called for improved resource efficiency, along with inclusive economic growth and deep cuts in global greenhouse emissions. However, the outlooks for and interactions between global natural resource use, resource efficiency, economic growth and greenhouse emissions are not well understood. We use a novel multi-regional modeling framework to develop projections to 2050 under existing trends and three policy scenarios. We find that resource efficiency could provide pro-growth pro-environment policies with global benefits of USD $2.4 trillion in 2050, and ease the politics of shifting towards sustainability. Under existing trends, resource extraction is projected to increase 119% from 2015 to 2050, from 84 to 184 billion tonnes per annum, while greenhouse gas emissions increase 41%, both driven by the value of global economic activity more than doubling. Resource efficiency and greenhouse abatement slow the growth of global resource extraction, so that in 2050 it is up to 28% lower than in existing trends. Resource efficiency reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 15–20% in 2050, with global emissions falling to 63% below 2015 levels when combined with a 2 °C emissions pathway. In contrast to greenhouse abatement, resource efficiency boosts near-term economic growth. These economic gains more than offset the near-term costs of shifting to a 2 °C emissions pathway, resulting in emissions in 2050 well below current levels, slower growth in resource extractions, and faster economic growth

Genetic diversity loss in a biodiversity hotspot: ancient DNA quantifies genetic decline and former connectivity in a critically endangered marsupial

The extent of genetic diversity loss and former connectivity between fragmented populations are often unknown factors when studying endangered species. While genetic techniques are commonly applied in extant populations to assess temporal and spatial demographic changes, it is no substitute for directly measuring past diversity using ancient DNA (aDNA). We analysed both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and nuclear microsatellite loci from 64 historical fossil and skin samples of the critically endangered Western Australian woylie (Bettongia penicillata ogilbyi), and compared them with 231 (n = 152 for mtDNA) modern samples. In modern woylie populations 15 mitochondrial control region (CR) haplotypes were identified. Interestingly, mtDNA CR data from only 29 historical samples demonstrated 15 previously unknown haplotypes and detected an extinct divergent clade. Through modelling, we estimated the loss of CR mtDNA diversity to be between 46% and 91% and estimated this to have occurred in the past 2000-4000 years in association with a dramatic population decline. In addition, we obtained near-complete 11-loci microsatellite profiles from 21 historical samples. In agreement with the mtDNA data, a number of 'new' microsatellite alleles was only detected in the historical populations despite extensive modern sampling, indicating a nuclear genetic diversity loss >20%. Calculations of genetic diversity (heterozygosity and allelic rarefaction) showed that these were significantly higher in the past and that there was a high degree of gene flow across the woylie's historical range. These findings have an immediate impact on how the extant populations are managed and we recommend the implementation of an assisted migration programme to prevent further loss of genetic diversity. Our study demonstrates the value of integrating aDNA data into current-day conservation strategies

Compiling and using input-output frameworks through collaborative virtual laboratories

Compiling, deploying and utilising large-scale databases that integrate environmental and economic data have traditionally been labour- and cost-intensive processes, hindered by the large amount of disparate and misaligned data that must be collected and harmonised. The Australian Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory (IELab) is a novel, collaborative approach to compiling large-scale environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) models.The utility of the IELab product is greatly enhanced by avoiding the need to lock in an MRIO structure at the time the MRIO system is developed. The IELab advances the idea of the "mother-daughter" construction principle, whereby a regionally and sectorally very detailed "mother" table is set up, from which "daughter" tables are derived to suit specific research questions. By introducing a third tier - the "root classification" - IELab users are able to define their own mother-MRIO configuration, at no additional cost in terms of data handling. Customised mother-MRIOs can then be built, which maximise disaggregation in aspects that are useful to a family of research questions.The second innovation in the IELab system is to provide a highly automated collaborative research platform in a cloud-computing environment, greatly expediting workflows and making these computational benefits accessible to all users.Combining these two aspects realises many benefits. The collaborative nature of the IELab development project allows significant savings in resources. Timely deployment is possible by coupling automation procedures with the comprehensive input from multiple teams. User-defined MRIO tables, coupled with high performance computing, mean that MRIO analysis will be useful and accessible for a great many more research applications than would otherwise be possible. By ensuring that a common set of analytical tools such as for hybrid life-cycle assessment is adopted, the IELab will facilitate the harmonisation of fragmented, dispersed and misaligned raw data for the benefit of all interested parties. © 2014 Elsevier B.V

The analysis of relapse-free survival curves: implications for evaluating intensive systemic adjuvant treatment regimens for breast cancer

Results of adjuvant dose intensification studies in patients with localised breast cancer have raised questions regarding the clinical usefulness of this treatment strategy. Here, we develop and fit a natural history model for the time to clinical tumour recurrence as a function of the number of involved lymph nodes, and derive plausible predictions of the effects of dose intensification under various conditions. The time to tumour recurrence is assumed to depend on the residual postoperative micrometastatic burden of tumour, the fractional reduction of residual tumour burden (RTB) by treatment, and the rate of regrowth of the RTB to a clinically detectable size. It is assumed that a proportion of micrometastatic tumours are unresponsive to adjuvant chemotherapy even at maximal dose intensity. Data fitted included the San Antonio Cancer Institute (SACI) database of untreated patients, and CALGB #9082, a study comparing a highly intensive and moderately intensity adjuvant regimen in patients with 10+ positive axillary nodes. The proportion of tumours unresponsive to maximally intensive adjuvant treatment is estimated to be 48% (29–67%). The estimated log kill for intermediate-dose therapy from CALGB #9082 was 6.5 logs, compared with 9 logs or greater for high-dose therapy. The model is consistent with a modest but nonnegligible advantage of dose intensification compared with standard therapies in patients with sensitive tumours who have 10+ positive axillary nodes, and suggests that much of this clinical benefit could be achieved using intermediate levels of treatment intensification. The model further suggests that, in patients with fewer than 10 involved axillary nodes, any advantage of treatment intensification over standard therapy would be much reduced, because in patients with smaller tumour burdens of sensitive tumour, a larger proportion of cures achievable with intensified therapy could be achieved as well with standard therapy

Role of Condom Negotiation on Condom use among Women of Reproductive Age in three Districts in Tanzania.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS remains being a disease of great public health concern worldwide. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where women are disproportionately infected with HIV, women are reportedly less likely capable of negotiating condom use. However, while knowledge of condom use for HIV prevention is extensive among men and women in many countries including Tanzania, evidence is limited about the role of condom negotiation on condom use among women in rural Tanzania. METHODS: Data originate from a cross-sectional survey of random households conducted in 2011 in Rufiji, Kilombero and Ulanga districts in Tanzania. The survey assessed health-seeking behaviour among women and children using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. A total of 2,614 women who were sexually experienced and aged 15--49 years were extracted from the main database for the current analysis. Linkage between condom negotiation and condom use at the last sexual intercourse was assessed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Prevalence of condom use at the last sexual intercourse was 22.2% overall, ranging from12.2% among married women to 54.9% among unmarried (single) women. Majority of the women (73.4%) reported being confident to negotiate condom use, and these women were significantly more likely than those who were not confident to have used a condom at the last sexual intercourse (OR = 3.13, 95% CI 2.22-4.41). This effect was controlled for marital status, age, education, religion, number of sexual partners, household wealth and knowledge of HIV prevention by condom use. CONCLUSION: Confidence to negotiate condom use is a significant predictor of actual condom use among women in rural Tanzania. Women especially unmarried ones or those in multiple partnerships should be empowered with condom negotiation skills to enhance their sexual and reproductive health outcomes

The vitamin D receptor polymorphism in the translation initiation codon is a risk factor for insulin resistance in glucose tolerant Caucasians

BACKGROUND: Although vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms have been shown to be associated with abnormal glucose metabolism, the reported polymorphisms are unlikely to have any biological consequences. The VDR gene has two potential translation initiation sites. A T-to-C polymorphism has been noted in the first ATG (f allele), abolishing the first translation initiation site and resulting in a peptide lacking the first three amino acids (F allele). We examined the role of this polymorphism in insulin sensitivity and beta cell function. This study included 49 healthy Caucasian subjects (28 females, age 28 ± 1 years old, body mass index 24.57 ± 0.57 kg/m(2), waist-hip ratio 0.81 ± 0.01 cm/cm). They were all normotensive (less than 140/90 mmHg) and glucose tolerant, which was determined by a standard 75-gm oral glucose tolerance test. Their beta cell function (%B) and insulin sensitivity (%S) were calculated based on the Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA). Their genotypes were determined by a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Phenotypes were compared between genotypic groups. RESULTS: There were 18 FF, 21 Ff, and 10 ff subjects. Since only 10 ff subjects were identified, they were pooled with the Ff subjects during analyses. The FF and Ff/ff groups had similar glucose levels at each time point before and after a glucose challenge. The Ff/ff group had higher insulin levels than the FF group at fasting (P=0.006), 30 minutes (P=0.009), 60 minutes (P=0.049), and 90 minutes (P=0.042). Furthermore, the Ff/ff group also had a larger insulin area under the curve than the FF group (P=0.009). While no difference was noted in %B, the Ff/ff group had a lower %S than the FF group (0.53 vs. 0.78, P=0.006). A stepwise regression analysis confirmed that the Fok I polymorphism was an independent determinant for %S, accounting for 29.3% of variation in %S when combined with waist-hip ratio. CONCLUSIONS: We report that the Fok I polymorphism at the VDR gene locus is associated with insulin sensitivity, but has no influence on beta cell function in healthy Caucasians. Although this polymorphism has been shown to affect the activation of vitamin D-dependent transcription, the molecular basis of the association between this polymorphism and insulin resistance remains to be determined