Natural and anthropogenic climate change

This final report provides a broad overview of program accomplishments. Brief descriptions are provided for accomplishments with respect to intercomparisions and improvements in general circulation models, analysis of climatic data and climate model statistics, and accomplishments in the China Meteorology coordination

Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986-2005, unless otherwise stated

Theoretical study of the absorption spectra of the sodium dimer

Absorption of radiation from the sodium dimer molecular states correlating to Na(3s)-Na(3s) is investigated theoretically. Vibrational bound and continuum transitions from the singlet X Sigma-g+ state to the first excited singlet A Sigma-u+ and singlet B Pi-u states and from the triplet a Sigma-u+ state to the first excited triplet b Sigma-g+ and triplet c Pi-g states are studied quantum-mechanically. Theoretical and experimental data are used to characterize the molecular properties taking advantage of knowledge recently obtained from ab initio calculations, spectroscopy, and ultra-cold atom collision studies. The quantum-mechanical calculations are carried out for temperatures in the range from 500 to 3000 K and are compared with previous calculations and measurements where available.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, revtex, eps

Multi-scale waves in sound-proof global simulations with EULAG

EULAG is a computational model for simulating flows across a wide range of scales and physical scenarios. A standard option employs an anelastic approximation to capture nonhydrostatic effects and simultaneously filter sound waves from the solution. In this study, we examine a localized gravity wave packet generated by instabilities in Held-Suarez climates. Although still simplified versus the Earth’s atmosphere, a rich set of planetary wave instabilities and ensuing radiated gravity waves can arise. Wave packets are observed that have lifetimes ≤ 2 days, are negligibly impacted by Coriolis force, and do not show the rotational effects of differential jet advection typical of inertia-gravity waves. Linear modal analysis shows that wavelength, period, and phase speed fit the dispersion equation to within a mean difference of ∼ 4%, suggesting an excellent fit. However, the group velocities match poorly even though a propagation of uncertainty analysis indicates that they should be predicted as well as the phase velocities. Theoretical arguments suggest the discrepancy is due to nonlinearity — a strong southerly flow leads to a critical surface forming to the southwest of the wave packet that prevents the expected propagation

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Modeling land-surface/atmosphere dynamics for CHAMMP

Project progress is described on a DOE CHAMP project to model the land-surface/atmosphere coupling in a heterogeneous environment. This work is a collaboration between scientists at Iowa State University and the University of New Hampshire. Work has proceeded in two areas: baseline model coupling and data base development for model validation. The core model elements (land model, atmosphere model) have been ported to the Principal Investigator's computing system and baseline coupling has commenced. The initial target data base is the set of observations from the FIFE field campaign, which is in the process of being acquired. For the remainder of the project period, additional data from the region surrounding the FIFE site and from other field campaigns will be acquired to determine how to best extrapolate results from the initial target region to the rest of the globe. In addition, variants of the coupled model will be used to perform experiments examining resolution requirements and coupling strategies for land-atmosphere coupling in a heterogeneous environment

Modeling the Pan-Arctic terrestrial and atmospheric water cycle. Final report

This report describes results of DOE grant DE-FG02-96ER61473 to Iowa State University (ISU). Work on this grant was performed at Iowa State University and at the University of New Hampshire in collaboration with Dr. Charles Vorosmarty and fellow scientists at the University of New Hampshire's (UNH's) Institute for the Study of the Earth, Oceans, and Space, a subcontractor to the project. Research performed for the project included development, calibration and validation of a regional climate model for the pan-Arctic, modeling river networks, extensive hydrologic database development, and analyses of the water cycle, based in part on the assembled databases and models. Details appear in publications produced from the grant

Natural and anthropogenic climate change

This report covers the project progress of grant DE-FG02-86ER60422 for the period March 1, 1990--October 1, 1990. The research program includes three tasks: General Circulation Models (GCM) intercomparison and improvement, climate data-model statistics, and China project science coordination. This work has been performed in collaboration with our subcontractor, Dr. Wei-Chyung Wang, SUNY/Albany. 8 refs

Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986–2005, unless otherwise stated