Testing Todd: family types and development

Many years ago, Emmanuel Todd came up with a classification of family types and argued that the historically prevalent family types in a society have important consequences for its economic, political, and social development. Here, we evaluate Todd's most important predictions empirically. Relying on a parsimonious model with exogenous covariates, we find mixed results. On the one hand, authoritarian family types are, in stark contrast to Todd's predictions, associated with increased levels of the rule of law and innovation. On the other hand, and in line with Todd's expectations, communitarian family types are linked to racism, low levels of the rule of law, and late industrialization. Countries in which endogamy is frequently practiced also display an expectedly high level of state fragility and weak civil society organizations

When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952 to 2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups

Supplemental Material - Pacem in Terris: Are Papal Visits Good News for Human Rights?

Supplemental Material for Pacem in Terris: Are Papal Visits Good News for Human Rights? by Marek Endrich and Jerg Gutmann in Comparative Political Studies</p

Supplemental Material - Pacem in Terris: Are Papal Visits Good News for Human Rights?

Supplemental Material for Pacem in Terris: Are Papal Visits Good News for Human Rights? by Marek Endrich and Jerg Gutmann in Comparative Political Studies</p

Perception vs. experience: Explaining differences in corruption measures using microdata

International audienceMost corruption research suffers from one common problem: There is no objective measure of public-sector corruption for a cross-section of countries. Studies on the determinants or the effects of corruption typically rely on indicators of corruption perception. In recent years, a second type of indicator reflecting experience with bribery has become available. If corruption perception is primarily informed by experience with corruption, these two types of indicators should be very highly correlated, which they are not. This study examines the variation in individual corruption perception that cannot be explained by individual corruption experience alone. We find that both respondent characteristics and country characteristics affect corruption perception beyond what can be explained by individuals’ first-hand experience of corruption. Some of these biases may force us to reevaluate results of corruption research that is based on perception data, as well as the anti-corruption policies designed in response to these results