Combining field work and laboratory work in the study of financial risk-taking.

A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition. Financial markets are periodically destabilized by bubbles and crashes during which investors display respectively what has been called "irrational exuberance" and "irrational pessimism". How can we best study these pathologies in competitive and risk-taking behaviours? In this article, we argue that a science of risk-taking and of the financial markets needs to draw heavily on physiology and especially endocrinology, due to their central roles in moderating human behaviour. Importantly, this science of competition and risk requires the same spectrum of research protocols as is found in mature biological and medical sciences, a spectrum running from field work conducted within financial institutions themselves to more controlled laboratory studies, which permit cause to be distinguished from effect. Such a spectrum of studies is especially important for translational behavioural science

Biogeomorphic recovery of a river reach affected by mining

Environmental changes are impacting river systems worldwide. These arise from factors such as flood magnitude–frequency changes, direct human management interventions, inadvertent human impacts on sediment supply and fluvial regimes and landscape-scale changes in climate. Historical and active metal mining is significant in this regard. Here, we investigate morphodynamic changes within a reach of the River Ystwyth, Wales, since 1845. We analyse historical and contemporary information derived from maps, river flow records (1962–2021), metal analyses of sediment samples (1970s and 2021), ground geomorphological surveys (1970s and 1986–1987) and remotely sensed imagery (2001–2021) to investigate changes during a period of active metal mining followed by a century of post-mining recovery. During the studied period, an initially meandering river was transformed into a braided one, subsequently reverting to a single sinuous channel. Sinuosity reduced from 1.31 in 1845 to 1.09 in 1982 before recovering to 1.39 in 2019. Inversely, the braiding index reduced from a maximum of 2.0 in 1987 to 1.5 in 2021. Evolution in planform was associated with a change from expansive bar formation and avulsion under braided conditions to lateral bar accretion and associated bank erosion along a sinuous single channel. The initial 19th-century channel pattern and floodplain instability seems to have been related to mining sediment toxicity effects rather than a response to high sediment volumes, with recent recovery and channel style reversion being attributable to vegetation encroachment and biomass stabilization of the floodplain. Causal factors of recent recovery appear to be colonization by gorse (Ulex europeaus) in the absence of physical control measures and a reduction in grazing by the native rabbit population because of a disease-induced decline in their numbers. These results highlight the importance of riparian vegetation in addition to sediment balance and hydrological processes in controlling fluvial responses to environmental changes

Order effects in high stakes undergraduate examinations: an analysis of 5 years of administrative data in one UK medical school.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between student performance in undergraduate objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) and the examination schedule to which they were assigned to undertake these examinations. DESIGN: Analysis of routinely collected data. SETTING: One UK medical school. PARTICIPANTS: 2331 OSCEs of 3 different types (obstetrics OSCE, paediatrics OSCE and simulated clinical encounter examination OSCE) between 2009 and 2013. Students were not quarantined between examinations. OUTCOMES: (1) Pass rates by day examination started, (2) pass rates by day station undertaken and (3) mean scores by day examination started. RESULTS: We found no evidence that pass rates differed according to the day on which the examination was started by a candidate in any of the examinations considered (p>0.1 for all). There was evidence (p=0.013) that students were more likely to pass individual stations on the second day of the paediatrics OSCE (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.54). In the cases of the simulated clinical encounter examination and the obstetrics and gynaecology OSCEs, there was no (p=0.42) or very weak evidence (p=0.099), respectively, of any such variation in the probability of passing individual stations according to the day they were attempted. There was no evidence that mean scores varied by day apart from the paediatric OSCE, where slightly higher scores were achieved on the second day of the examination. CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence that different examination schedules have a consistent effect on pass rates or mean scores: students starting the examinations later were not consistently more or less likely to pass or score more highly than those starting earlier. The practice of quarantining students to prevent communication with (and subsequent unfair advantage for) subsequent examination cohorts is unlikely to be required.University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineThis is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BMJ Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-01254

Physical and biological controls on fine sediment transport and storage in rivers

Excess fine sediment, comprising particles <2 mm in diameter, is a major cause of ecological degradation in rivers. The erosion of fine sediment from terrestrial or aquatic sources, its delivery to the river, and its storage and transport in the fluvial environment are controlled by a complex interplay of physical, biological and anthropogenic factors. Whilst the physical controls exerted on fine sediment dynamics are relatively well-documented, the role of biological processes and their interactions with hydraulic and physico-chemical phenomena has been largely overlooked. The activities of biota, from primary producers to predators, exert strong controls on fine sediment deposition, infiltration and resuspension. For example, extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) associated with biofilms increase deposition and decrease resuspension. In lower energy rivers, aquatic macrophyte growth and senescence are intimately linked to sediment retention and loss, whereas riparian trees are dominant ecosystem engineers in high energy systems. Fish and invertebrates also have profound effects on fine sediment dynamics through activities that drive both particle deposition and erosion depending on species composition and abiotic conditions. The functional traits of species present will determine not only these biotic effects but also the responses of river ecosystems to excess fine sediment. We discuss which traits are involved and put them into context with spatial processes that occur throughout the river network. Whilst strides towards better understanding of the impacts of excess fine sediment have been made, further progress to identify the most effective management approaches is urgently required through close communication between authorities and scientists

Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor.

Interoception is the sensing of physiological signals originating inside the body, such as hunger, pain and heart rate. People with greater sensitivity to interoceptive signals, as measured by, for example, tests of heart beat detection, perform better in laboratory studies of risky decision-making. However, there has been little field work to determine if interoceptive sensitivity contributes to success in real-world, high-stakes risk taking. Here, we report on a study in which we quantified heartbeat detection skills in a group of financial traders working on a London trading floor. We found that traders are better able to perceive their own heartbeats than matched controls from the non-trading population. Moreover, the interoceptive ability of traders predicted their relative profitability, and strikingly, how long they survived in the financial markets. Our results suggest that signals from the body - the gut feelings of financial lore - contribute to success in the markets.UK Economic and Social Research Council (Programme Grant), European Research Council (Grant ID: ERC AdG324150:CCFIB), Dr. Mortimer and Theresa Sackler Foundation, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, ARC DECRA Fellowship, Queensland Smart Future FundThis is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via https://doi.org/10.1038/srep3298

Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences.

Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over 8 d to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking and found that participants became more risk-averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an underappreciated cause of market instability.This research was supported by a Programme Grant from the Economic and Social Research Council.This is the version of record of the article "Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences" published in PNAS on March 2104 under the PNAS Open Access option. The published version of record is available on the journal website at http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.131790811

Implications of squirrelpox virus for successful red squirrel translocations within mainland UK

Remnant red squirrel populations in the UK mainland are threatened by squirrelpox viral disease and the reservoir of the squirrelpox virus, the invasive grey squirrel, is expanding its range. Until this threat can be effectively mitigated, there is a high risk from disease outbreaks, following proposed conservation translocation of red squirrels

Hyperthyroxinemia and Hypercortisolemia due to Familial Dysalbuminemia.

A 23-year-old man and his grandmother with hyperthyroxinemia and hypercortisolemia were heterozygous for an ALB mutation (p. Arg218Pro), known to cause familial dysalbuminemic hyperthyroxinemia (FDH). However, serum-free cortisol levels in these individuals were normal and total cortisol concentrations fell markedly after depletion of albumin from their serum. We conclude that binding of steroid as well as iodothyronines to mutant albumin causes raised circulating cortisol as well as thyroid hormones in euthyroid euadrenal individuals with R218P FDH, with potential for misdiagnosis, unnecessary investigation, and inappropriate treatment.Wellcome Trust NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centr