The Error Covariance Matrix Inflation in Ensemble Kalman Filter

The estimation accuracy of ensemble forecast errors is crucial to the assimilation results for all ensemble-based schemes. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a widely used scheme in land surface data assimilation, without using the adjoint of a dynamical model. In EnKF, the forecast error covariance matrix is estimated as the sampling covariance matrix of the ensemble forecast states. However, past researches on EnKF have found that it can generally lead to an underestimate of the forecast error covariance matrix, due to the limited ensemble size, as well as the poor initial perturbations and model error. This can eventually result in filter divergence. Therefore, using inflation to further adjust the forecast error covariance matrix becomes increasingly important. In this chapter, a new structure of the forecast error covariance matrix is proposed to mitigate the problems with limited ensemble size and model error. An adaptive procedure equipped with a second-order least squares method is applied to estimate the inflation factors of forecast and observational error covariance matrices. The proposed method is tested on the well-known atmosphere-like Lorenz-96 model with spatially correlated observational systems. The experiment results show that the new structure of the forecast error covariance matrix and the adaptive estimation procedure lead to improvement of the analysis states

Soil Moisture Assimilation Using a Modified Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Based on Station Observations in the Hai River Basin

Assimilating observations to a land surface model can further improve soil moisture estimation accuracy. However, assimilation results largely rely on forecast error and generally cannot maintain a water budget balance. In this study, shallow soil moisture observations are assimilated into Common Land Model (CoLM) to estimate the soil moisture in different layers. A proposed forecast error inflation and water balance constraint are adopted in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter to reduce the analysis error and water budget residuals. The assimilation results indicate that the analysis error is reduced and the water imbalance is mitigated with this approach

mechanismresponsibleforthecompletesuppressionofkrmnvortexinflowspastawavysquaresectioncylinder

The Kármán vortex shedding is totally suppressed in flows past a wavy square-section cylinder at a Reynolds number of 100 and the wave steepness of 0.025. Such a phenomenon is illuminated by the numerical simulations. In the present study, the mechanism responsible for it is mainly attributed to the vertical vorticity. The geometric disturbance on the rear surface leads to the appearance of spanwise flow near the base. The specific vertical vorticity is generated on the rear surface and convecting into the near wake. The wake flow is recirculated with the appearance of the pair of recirculating cells. The interaction between the upper and lower shear layers is weakened by such cells, so that the vortex rolls could not be formed and the near wake flow becomes stable

effectsofparticlesizeondiluteparticledispersioninakrmnvortexstreetflow

It is shown that in a Kármán vortex street flow, particle size influences the dilute particle dispersion. Together with an increase of the particle size, there is an emergence of a period-doubling bifurcation to a chaotic orbit, as well as a decrease of the corresponding basins of attraction. A crisis leads the attractor to escape from the central region of flow. In the motion of dilute particles, a drag term and gravity term dominate and result in a bifurcation phenomenon

A colorimetric sensor based on citrate-stabilized AuNPs for rapid pesticide residue detection of terbuthylazine and dimethoate

A new colorimetric sensor based on citrate-stabilized AuNPs was proposed for the rapid pesticide residue detection of both terbuthylazine (TBA) and dimethoate (DMT) with ultra-sensitivities and high selectivities. The detection mechanisms have been verified via FT-IR, UV-vis spectra, Zeta Potential, TEM and DLS. Under the optimized experimental conditions, 30 kinds of potential environmental pollutants have no interference on the TBA or DMT detection indicating the high selectivities of our AuNP-based colorimetric sensor. The limit of detections (LODs) of TBA and DMT by eye vision are respectively 0.3 mu M and 20 nM, and those based on calculation (3 sigma/S) are 0.02 mu M and 6.2 nM, respectively. The minimum detectable concentrations of TBA or DMT are much lower than the maximum residue limit (MRL) regulated by the governments of EU and China. The linear relationships of the UV-vis spectrometry demonstrate that our AuNP-based colorimetric sensor can be used for the quantitative analysis of TBA in the range of 0.1-0.9 mu M, and DMT in the range of 1-40 nM. Finally, our AuNP-based colorimetric sensor is also verified to have a good practical applicability for TBA or DMT detection in the real environmental samples. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Role of the Early Miocene Jinhe-Qinghe Thrust Belt in the building of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau topography

International audienceUnderstanding the role of southeastern Tibetan thrust faults in the development of plateau topography is key to our assessment of the geodynamic processes shaping continental topography. Detailed structural analysis along the ~400 km long Jinhe-Qinghe thrust belt (JQTB) indicates post Late Eocene thrust motion with a minor leftlateral component, inducing ~0.6 to 3.6 km of apparent vertical offset across the fault. The exhumation history of the Baishagou granite, based on thermal modeling of new apatite (U-Th)/He and fission-track results, suggests an accelerated exhumation rate (~0.4 km/Myr) between 20 and 16 Ma, corresponding to ~1.7-2.4 km of exhumation. We interpret this fast exhumation as a manifestation of the activation of the Nibi thrust, a northern branch of the JQTB, resulting in the creation of significant relief across the JQTB in the Early Miocene. When compared with previous studies, our findings show that Cenozoic exhumation and relief creation in southeastern Tibet cannot be explained by a single mechanism. Rather, at least three stages of relief creation should be invoked. The first phase is Eocene NE-SW compression partly coeval with Eocene sedimentation. During the Late Oligocene to Early Miocene and coeval with the extrusion of Indochina, the second thrusting phase occurred along the Yulong and Longmenshan thrust belts, and then migrated to the JQTB at 20-16 Ma. The third phase involved the activation of the Xianshuihe fault and the re-activation of the Longmenshan thrust belt and the Muli thrust. Uplift in the hanging wall of thrust belts appears to explain most of the present-day relief in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Paleoelevations in the Jianchuan Basin of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on stable isotope and pollen grain analyses

The southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a key region for understanding the region's surface uplift mechanisms. This study focused on the Jiuziyan and Shuanghe Formations (Fms) in the Jianchuan Basin, both of which include lacustrine calcareous mudstones and marls. Ostracods of the genus Austrocypris found within the Jiuziyan and Shuanghe Fms constrain the age of strata to the Late Eocene. This study used two different proxies, i.e. fossil pollen coexistence and the δ^(18)O (VPDB) values of carbonate (δ^(18)O_c), to reconstruct paleoelevation and the extant paleoenvironment from lacustrine calcareous mudstones and marls preserved in the Eocene stratigraphy of the Jianchuan Basin. The coexistence approach (CA) using pollen data from the Shuanghe Fm indicates a paleoelevation of 1.3–2.6 km above sea level (asl), which would most probably have been associated with a vegetation cover consisting of tropical-subtropical, deciduous, coniferous, broadleaf forests. The reconstructed mean annual air temperature (MAAT) had a value of 16.8–21.7 °C, warmer than today's MAAT (~6 °C). Oxygen isotope results from the Jiuziyan Fm, with/without modification between Eocene and modern Myanmar sea level, suggested that the surface of the Jianchuan Basin was at a paleoelevation between 0.5^(+0.8)_(–0.5) km asl and 2.5 ± 0.7 km asl (δ^(18)Omw: −8.9 ± 1.3‰, 2σ). During the Shuanghe Fm sedimentation the paleoelevation was between 0.9^(+0.7)_(–0.7) km asl and 2.9 ± 0.6 km asl (δ^(18)O_(mw): −9.5 ± 1.1‰, 2σ). Our results suggest that a stepwise uplift of Jianchuan Basin and crustal thickening initiated during the Eocene was the cause of passive surface uplift of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) rather than Miocene lower crustal flow

Favorable Marker Alleles for Panicle Exsertion Length in Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Mined by Association Mapping and the RSTEP-LRT Method

The panicle exsertion length (PEL) in rice (Oryza sativa L.) is an important trait for hybrid seed production. We investigated the PEL in a chromosome segment substitution line (CSSL) population consisting of 66 lines and a natural population composed of 540 varieties. In the CSSL population, a total of seven QTLs for PEL were detected across two environments. The percentage of phenotypic variance explained (PVE) ranged from 10.22 to 50.18%, and the additive effect ranged from −1.77 to 6.47 cm. Among the seven QTLs, qPEL10.2 had the largest PVE, 44.05 and 50.18%, with an additive effect of 5.91 and 6.47 cm in 2015 and in 2016, respectively. In the natural population, 13 SSR marker loci were detected that were associated with PEL in all four environments, with the PVE ranging from 1.20 to 6.26%. Among the 13 loci, 7 were novel. The RM5746-170 bp allele had the largest phenotypic effect (5.11 cm), and the typical carrier variety was Qiaobinghuang. An RM5620-RM6100 region harboring the EUI2 locus on chromosome 10 was detected in both populations. The sequencing results showed that the accessions with a shorter PEL contained the A base, while the accessions with a longer PEL contained the G base at the 1,475 bp location of the EUI2 gene

Summer Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau Modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

International audienceRapid warming has led to an aggregated environmental degradation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the last few decades, including accelerated glacier retreat, early snowmelt, permafrost degradation, and forest fire occurrence. Attribution of this warming in recent decades has mainly been focused on anthropogenic forcing. Yet, linkages to the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), an essential part of the climate system causing decadal to centennial fluctuations of temperature, remains poorly understood for the TP, especially at long time scales. Using well-replicated tree-ring width records, we reconstructed 358 years of summer minimum temperature (MinT) of the whole TP. This reconstruction matches the recent warming signal recorded since the 1980s, and captures 63% of the variance in 1950–2005 instrumental records. A teleconnection from the North Atlantic to the TP is further identified based in observations and simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). We propose that half of the multidecadal variability of TP summer MinT can be explained by the AMV over the past three and a half centuries. Both observations and AGCM simulations indicate that the AMV warm phase induces a zonal dipole response in sea level pressure across the Atlantic–Eurasia region, with anomalously high surface pressure and corresponding downward atmospheric motion over the TP. We propose that the descending motion during warm AMV phases causes negative rainfall and positive temperature anomalies over the TP. Our findings highlight that the AMV plays a role in the multidecadal temperature variability over the TP