Objective functions for comparing simulations with insect trap catch data

Targeted surveillance of high risk invasion sites using insect traps is becoming an important tool in border biosecurity, aiding in early detection and subsequent monitoring of eradication attempts. The mark-release-recapture technique is widely used to study the dispersal of insects, and to generate unbiased estimates of population density. It may also be used in the biosecurity context to quantify the efficacy of surveillance and eradication monitoring systems. Marked painted apple moths were released at three different locations in Auckland, New Zealand over six weeks during a recent eradication campaign. The results of the mark-release-recapture experiment were used to parameterise a process-based mechanistic dispersal model in order to understand the moth dispersal pattern in relation to wind patterns, and to provide biosecurity agencies with an ability to predict moth dispersal patterns. A genetic algorithm was used to fit some model parameters. Different objective functions were tested: 1) Cohen’s Kappa test, 2) the sum of squared difference on trap catches, 3) the sum of squared difference weighted by distance from the release site, 4) the sum of squared difference weighted on distance between best-fit paired data. The genetic algorithm proved to be a powerful fitting method, but the model results were highly dependant on the objective function used. Objective functions for fitting spatial data need to characterise spatial patterns as well as density (ie. recapture rate). For fitting stochastic models to datasets derived from stochastic spatial processes, objective functions need to accommodate the fact that a perfect fit is practically impossible, even if the models are the same. Applied on mark-release-recapture data, the Cohen’s Kappa test and the sum of squared difference on trap catches captured respectively the distance component of the spatial pattern and the density component adequately but failed to capture both requirements whereas the sum of squared difference weighted by distance from the release site did. However, in order to integrate the stochastic error generated by the model underlying stochastic process, only the sum of squared difference weighted on distance between best-fit paired data was adequate. The relevance of each of the fitting methods is detailed, and their respective strengths and weaknesses are discussed in relation to their ability to capture the spatial patterns of insect recaptures

Individual-based modelling of moth dispersal to improve biosecurity incursion response

1. Some biosecurity systems aimed at reducing the impacts of invasive alien species that employ sentinel trapping systems to detect the presence of unwanted organisms. Once detected, the next challenge is to locate the source population of the invasive species. Tools that can direct search efforts towards the most likely sources of a trapped invasive alien species can improve the chance of rapidly delimiting and eradicating the local population and may help to identify the original introduction pathway. Ground-based detection and delimitation surveys can be very expensive, and methods to focus search efforts to those areas most likely to contain the target organisms can make these efforts more effective and efficient. 2. An individual-based semi-mechanistic model was developed to simulate the spatio-temporal dispersal patterns of an invasive moth. The model combines appetitive and pheromone anemotaxis behaviours in response towind, temperature and pheromone conditions. The modelwas trained using data from a series ofmark-release-recapture experiments on painted applemoth Teia anartoides. 3. The model was used to create hindcast simulations by reversing the time course of environmental conditions. The ability of the model to encompass the release location was evaluated using individual trap locations as starting points for the hindcast simulations. 4. The hindcast modelling generated a pattern of moth flights that successfully encompassed the origin from 86%of trap locations, representing 95%of the 1464 recaptures observed in the mark- release-recapture experiments. 5. Comparing the guided search area defined using the hindcast model with the area of a simple point-diffusion search strategy revealed an optimized search strategy that combined searching a circle of 1 km radius around the trap followed by the area indicated by hindcast model predictions. 6. Synthesis and applications. Incorporating this novel moth dispersal model into biosecurity sentinel systems will allow incursion managers to direct search effort for the proximal source of the incursion towards those areas most likely to contain a local infestation. Such targeted effort should reduce the costs and time taken to detect the proximal source of an incursion. (Résumé d'auteur

Reaction ⁶Li(p, Δ⁺⁺)⁶He At 1.04 GeV And The Δ−N Interaction

The reaction ⁶Li(p, Δ⁺⁺)⁶He has been studied at 1.04 GeV for transferred momenta ranging from 0.11 to 0.35 (GeV/c)2. An exponential decrease of the cross section is observed. A Glauber-type calculation is presented. The possibility of extracting information on σ(ΔN) and α(ΔN) is discussed

Typical and Atypical Symptoms of Petrous Apex Cholesterol Granuloma: Association with Radiological Findings

Objective: Petrous apex cholesterol granuloma (PACG) is a lesion that can give rise to different symptoms, and correlations with etiopathology are ambiguous. The aim of this study is to analyze the association between PACG symptoms and radiological findings at presentation, in order to establish a reproduceable pre-operative radiological evaluation and guide the surgical indication. Methods: PACG patients were collected in two tertiary care hospitals. All cases underwent CT/MRI to evaluate the cyst localization and erosion of surrounding structures. Typical and atypical symptoms were then analyzed and compared to radiologic findings established in accordance with the literature. Results: Twenty-nine patients were recruited; the most common symptoms were headache (69%), diplopia (20.7%) and fainting (24.1%), an atypical clinical manifestation related to jugular tubercle involvement. Significant associations between symptoms and radiologic findings were noted in terms of headache and temporal lobe compression (p = 0.04), fainting and jugular tubercle erosion (p < 0.001), vestibular symptoms and internal auditory canal erosion (p = 0.02), facial paresthesia and Meckel’s cave compression (p = 0.03), diplopia and Dorello canal involvement (p = 0.001), and tinnitus and cochlear basal turn erosion (p < 0.001). All patients were treated via an endoscopic–endonasal approach, in which extension was tailored to each case. At a median follow-up of 46 months, 93.1% of patients experienced resolution of symptoms. Conclusions: This clinico-radiological series demonstrates associations between symptoms and anatomical subsites involved with PACG. Hence, it may guide the surgeon at the time of surgical decision, since it asserts that typical and atypical symptoms are actually related to PACG

Study of dimuon production in Indium-Indium collisions with the NA60 experiment

The NA60 experiment at the CERN-SPS is devoted to the study of dimuon production in heavy-ion and proton-nucleus collisions. We present preliminary results from the analysis of Indium-Indium collisions at 158 GeV per nucleon. The topics covered are low mass vector meson production, J/psi production and suppression, and the feasibility of the open charm measurement from the dimuon continuum in the mass range below the J/psi peak.Comment: Contribution at XXXXth Rencontres de Moriond, "QCD and High Energy Hadronic Interactions