Proportion and factors associated with low fifth minute Apgar score among singleton newborn babies in Gondar University referral hospital; North West Ethiopia.

Back ground: New born babies with low Apgar scores are at an increased risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Objective: To assess proportion and factors associated with low 5th minute Apgar Apgar score among singleton newborn babies in Gondar University referral hospital; North West Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on singleton 261 live births from March - May, 2013. Data was collected from mother/newborn index using a structured and pre-tested questionnaire. It was then cleaned, coded and entered using EPI INFO version 3.4.3, then analyzed with IBM SPSS statistics versions 20.0. Logistic regression was used to identify significant variables with low 5th minute Apgar score. Result: The proportion of low 5th minute Apgar score in this study was 13.8%. Factors that were significantly associated with low 5th minute Apgar score were: non-vertex fetal presentation, prolonged labor, presence of meconium stained liquor, induced/ augmented labor and low birth weight. Conclusion: Mainly obstetric factors contribute to low Apgar score. Improving labor management through implementing regular use of partograph, 1:1 midwife-client ratio and advanced electronic fetal monitoring technology is recommended

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting low birth weight among pregnant women who had antenatal care visits at Debre Markos Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia

BackgroundBirth weight is a crucial factor linked to a newborn’s survival and can also affect their future health, growth, and development. Earlier, researchers focused on exploring maternal and fetal factors contributing to low birth weight. However, in recent years, there has been a shift toward effectively predicting low birth weight by utilizing a combination of variables. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting low birth weight in Ethiopia.MethodsA retrospective follow-up study was conducted, and a total of 1,120 pregnant women were included. Client charts were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data were extracted using a structured checklist prepared on the KoboToolbox (Cambridge, Massachusetts in the United States) and exported to STATA version 14 (Computing Resource Center in California) and R version 4.2.2 (University of Auckland, New Zealand) for data management and analysis. A nomogram was developed based on a binary logistic model, and its performance was assessed by discrimination power and calibration. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. To evaluate the clinical impact, decision curve analysis was applied.ResultsThe nomogram included gestational age, hemoglobin, primigravida, unplanned pregnancy, and preeclampsia. The AUROC of the predicted nomogram was 84.3%, and internal validation was 80.1%. The calibration plot indicated that the nomogram was well calibrated. The model was found to have clinical benefit.ConclusionThe nomogram demonstrates strong discrimination performance and can predict low birth weight clinically. As a result, it can be used in clinical practice, which will help clinicians in making quick and personalized predictions simply and rapidly, enabling the early identification and medical intervention. For broader applicability, the nomogram must be externally validated

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Epidemiology of neonatal mortality: a spatial and multilevel analysis of the 2019 mini-Ethiopian demographic and health survey data

Abstract Background Sub-Saharan African countries are a high-burden region of neonatal mortality and showed slow progress in its reduction. In developing countries, as long as the current trend of mortality persists, achieving a sustainable development target for neonatal mortality would be challenging. The aim of this study was to detect significant geographic areas and identify community and individual-level predictors of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia to draw attention to a policy. Methods A weighted total sample of 24,136 mothers from the 2019 mini-Ethiopian demographic and health survey data were included in the analysis. Global Moran’s I statistics was run to check the clustering of neonatal mortality and then kriging interpolation was done to predict the magnitude of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia. In addition, SaTScan analysis was also executed to identify hot spot clusters of neonatal mortality. Finally, a multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to identify community and individual-level predictors of early neonatal and neonatal mortality. Results The lifetime early neonatal and neonatal mortality among mothers in Ethiopia was 5.08 (95% CI: 4.13–6.03) and 6.54 (5.55, 7.52) per 1000 births respectively. Neonatal mortality was spatially clustered in the country and the SaTScan analysis identified significant hotspot areas of neonatal mortality in the Amhara and Afar regions and some areas of the Somali and Oromia regions. Its predicted magnitude was > 8 per 1000 births in wide areas of the Amhara and Benishangul regions. A multilevel mixed-effect logistics regression analysis identified that a lower level of maternal education, being a twin neonate, and being a male neonate were predictors of both early neonatal and neonatal mortality. Whereas, the younger age of mothers predicted neonatal mortality. Conclusions Neonatal mortality in Ethiopia is geographically clustered and sociodemographic and obstetric factors played a significant role. Policy direction should focus on evidence-based practices like midwives-led community and facility-based continuum of care from preconception to postnatal periods to possibly reduce neonatal mortality

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

This online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com on September 28, 2023BACKGROUND : Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS : Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS : In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world’s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION : Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.http://www.thelancet.comam2024School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)SDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein

Outcomes among Mothers Who Gave Birth in the Health Facility: Does Birth Preparedness and Complication Readiness Have a Role?

Background. Giving childbirth is a natural reward for human beings to replace themselves to exist in the world. Despite all the efforts made to improve maternal health, maternal morbidity and mortality continue during childbirth. Hence, this study aimed to determine the proportion of maternal birth outcomes and identify their predictors among mothers who gave birth in hospitals. Method. A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted from April 9 to June 7, 2016, among 384 postnatal mothers in Debre Tabor Hospital. Randomly selected mothers were interviewed by trained data collectors. Data were checked for completeness, entered using Epi Info version 7, and analyzed using STATA 14 software. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to control confounders and identify predictors of maternal birth outcomes. Statistical significance was declared by adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval and a p value ≤0.05. Result. About 77% (95% CI: 72.9, 81.3) of the mothers had good maternal birth outcomes. Antenatal care utilization (AOR: 2.60; 95% CI: 1.16, 5.83); BPCR practice (AOR: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.12, 3.96); self-preference of health institution (AOR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.11, 4.50); and mode of delivery: caesarean (AOR: 0.46; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.87), assisted breech (AOR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.69), and instrumental (AOR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.79) were associated with good maternal birth outcome. Conclusion. In this study, the maternal birth outcome among postnatal mothers was good in more than three-fourth of the cases. Hence, encouraging mothers to utilize health-care services and counseling and supporting them on BPCR practice are recommended

Proportion of Immediate Postpartum Anaemia and Associated Factors among Postnatal Mothers in Northwest Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background. Anaemia is a major global health problem, especially in developing countries. Postpartum anaemia hurts both maternal and newborn baby health. Anaemia in pregnancy is sufficiently emphasized; however, very little attention has been paid to postpartum anaemia in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the proportion of immediate postpartum anaemia and associated factors among postpartum mothers in Debre Markos Referral Hospital. Methods. Institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 424 study participants from August 1st to October 30th, 2019. A systematic random sampling technique was employed to select the study participants. Data were collected through both face-to-face interview and maternal chart review by using a pretested questionnaire. Data were cleaned, coded, and entered using Epi Data version 4.6.0.0 and then exported to SPSS version 24 for analysis. First, binary logistic regression was applied to identify candidate variables for multivariable regression. Then, variables at p value <0.2 were entered into a multivariable logistic regression to control possible confounders. Finally, variables at p value <0.05 were considered as statistically significant. Results. The proportion of immediate postpartum anaemia was 24.3%. Frequency of antenatal care (ANC) visits <4 times [AOR = 2.40; 95% CI (1.29, 4.43)], antepartum haemorrhage (APH) [AOR = 5.08; 95% CI (1.91, 13.55)], postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) [AOR = 4.47; 95% CI (2.25, 8.88)], giving birth assisted by instruments (vacuum or forceps) [AOR = 3.99; 95% CI (1.42, 11.23)], poor adherence to iron and folic acid (IFA) [AOR = 2.52; 95% CI (1.06, 6.04)], and midupper arm circumference (MUAC) <23 cm [AOR = 3.25; 95% CI (1.87, 5.65)] were the predictors. Conclusion. The proportion of immediate postpartum anaemia was a moderate public health concern. ANC, APH, PPH, mode of delivery, adherence to IFA supplementation, and MUAC measurement were the factors affecting the magnitude of anaemia. Therefore, interventions that would address the above mentioned factors need to be implemented

Timing and factors associated with first antenatal care booking among pregnant mothers in Gondar Town; North West Ethiopia

Background: Antenatal care service which is among strategies to maintain maternal and fetal wellbeing is strongly recommended to be initiated early during pregnancy. To developing world where there is uncommon practice of pre-pregnancy care and support, timely commencement is crucial in getting potential benefits from some of the elements of the care. Therefore, we sought to assess timing and factors associated with the first antenatal care booking among pregnant mothers attending antenatal care clinics in Gondar town health facilities; North West Ethiopia.Methods: Health institution based cross-sectional study was conducted among pregnant mothers from April to June 2012 in Gondar town. A total of 407 pregnant mothers were interviewed at exit from antenatal clinic by using structured and pre-tested questionnaire. Bivariate and multivariate data analysis was performed using SPSS for Windows version 16.0.Result: The study indicated that 35.4% of mothers started antenatal care timely (in the first trimester of pregnancy). The mean time was 4.5 months (17.7 weeks) of pregnancy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that: [(AOR (95% CI)) maternal age = 20 years (2.21 (1.33, 3.68)), pregnancy recognition by urine test (2.29 (1.42, 3.71)), mothers who perceived the right time to start antenatal care within first trimester (3.93 (2.29, 6.75)) and having decision power to use antenatal care (2.43 (1.18, 4.99))] were significantly associated with timely commencement to antenatal care.Conclusion: Timely entry to antenatal care was low in the study area. In order to improve the situation, it is important to provide community based information, education and communication on antenatal care and its right time of commencement. In addition, empowering women and implementing the proclamation designed for the age at marriage is mandatory up to the local level

The role of timely initiation of antenatal care on protective dose tetanus toxoid immunization: the case of northern Ethiopia post natal mothers

Abstract Background Globally, tetanus toxoid protective dose immunization of the mothers is one of the strategies of maternal and neonatal tetanus prevention. Ethiopia has planned the national tetanus protection at birth coverage to reach 86% by the year 2015. However, there is still low coverage with less identified associated factors. Therefore; the purpose of this study was to assess tetanus toxoid protective dose immunization at last birth and associated factors among mothers who gave birth within one year prior to the study in Debretabor town, Northwest Ethiopia, 2016. Methods A community based cross sectional study was conducted from May 1 to June 10 / 2016. A total of 511 mothers were included in the study. Structured questionnaire and checklists were used to collect the data. Face to face interview with cross checking documented record were employed. A systematic random sampling technique was used. The data were entered in to Epinfo version 7.0 and then exported to SPSS version 20.0 for analysis. Both bivariate and multivariable logistic regression model were fitted and crude and Adjusted Odds ratio with 95% confidence interval were computed. Finally, statistically significant association of variables was determined based on Adjusted Odds ratio with its 95% confidence interval and p-value ≤0.05. Result The proportion of tetanus toxoid protective dose immunization among mothers was 56.2% (95% CI: 52–60%). In the multivariable analysis; formal education (AOR = 2.09; 95%CI: 1.12, 3.90), planned last pregnancy (AOR = 6.63; 95%CI: 2.36, 18.63), four or more antenatal care visits (AOR = 5.16; 95%CI: 2.93, 11.14), timely antenatal care visit (AOR = 4.29; 95%CI: 1.94, 9.49), and perceived good quality of service (AOR = 2.20; 95% CI: 1.26, 3.84) were positively associated with tetanus toxoid protective dose immunization. Conclusion In this study, protective dose tetanus toxoid immunization is lower than the national target. Strengthening information education communication regarding tetanus and its prevention and encouraging timely initiation of and complete attendance of antenatal care is recommended