A latent class model for competing risks

Survival data analysis becomes complex when the proportional hazards assumption is violated at population level or when crude hazard rates are no longer estimators of marginal ones. We develop a Bayesian survival analysis method to deal with these situations, on the basis of assuming that the complexities are induced by latent cohort or disease heterogeneity that is not captured by covariates and that proportional hazards hold at the level of individuals. This leads to a description from which risk-specific marginal hazard rates and survival functions are fully accessible, 'decontaminated' of the effects of informative censoring, and which includes Cox, random effects and latent class models as special cases. Simulated data confirm that our approach can map a cohort's substructure and remove heterogeneity-induced informative censoring effects. Application to data from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men cohort leads to plausible alternative explanations for previous counter-intuitive inferences on prostate cancer. The importance of managing cardiovascular disease as a comorbidity in women diagnosed with breast cancer is suggested on application to data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk Study. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Serum levels of selenium and smoking habits at age 50 influence long term prostate cancer risk; a 34 year ULSAM follow-up

Background: Serum selenium level (s-Se) has been associated with prostate cancer (PrCa) risk. We investigated the relation between s-Se, smoking and non-screening detected PrCa and explored if polymorphisms in two DNA repair genes: OGG1 and MnSOD, influenced any effect of s-Se. Methods: ULSAM, a population based Swedish male cohort (n = 2322) investigated at age 50 for s-Se and s-Se influencing factors: serum cholesterol, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and smoking habits. At age 71 a subcohort, (n = 1005) was genotyped for OGG1 and MnSOD polymorphisms. Results: In a 34-year-follow-up, national registries identified 208 PrCa cases further confirmed in medical records. Participants with s-Se in the upper tertile had a non-significantly lower risk of PrCa. Smokers with s-Se in the two lower tertiles (<= 80 mu g/L) experienced a higher cumulative incidence of PrCa than smokers in the high selenium tertile (Hazard Ratio 2.39; 95% CI: 1.09-5.25). A high tertile selenium level in combination with non-wt rs125701 of the OGG1 gene in combination with smoking status or rs4880 related variation of MnSOD gene appeared to protect from PrCa. Conclusions: S-Se levels and smoking habits influence long-term risk of PrCa. Smoking as a risk factor for PrCa in men with low s-Se is relevant to explore further. Exploratory analyses of variations in OGG1 and MnSOD genes indicate that hypotheses about patterns of exposure to selenium and smoking combined with data on genetic variation in genes involved in DNA repair can be valuable to pursue

Satupussin salaisuus -opas : Liikunta- ja draamakasvatuksen harjoituksia lasten kielen kehityksen tukemiseen varhaiskasvatuksessa

Opinnäytetyö oli toiminnallinen kehittämistyö, jonka toimeksiantajana oli iisalmelainen Lumilinnan päiväkoti.Tavoitteena oli kehittää opas lasten kielen kehityksen tukemiseen varhaiskasvatuksessa liikunta- ja draamakasvatuksen menetelmillä. Kehittämistyön ja oppaan avulla kielen kehityksen vaikeuksia voidaan tunnistaa ja tukea varhaisessa vaiheessa, mikä osaltaan vähentää lasten syrjäytymisriskiä. Kehittämistyön aikana suunniteltiin ja ohjattiin 3–4 vuotiaiden lasten päiväkotiryhmälle ohjattuja tuokioita, joiden aikana pyrittiin tukemaan kielen kehitystä inkluusion periaatteiden mukaisesti. Tuokioille osallistuivat päiväkodin 3–4-vuotiaat lapset kielen taitotasosta riippumatta. Tuokiot pohjautuivat neljään klassikkosatuun, jotka leikittiin yhdessä läpi. Ohjattujen tuokioiden pohjalta kehitettiin opas kielen kehityksen tueksi. Oppaassa on teoreettista tietoa lasten kielen kehityksen tukemisesta varhaiskasvatuksessa sekä lapsilähtöisestä ohjaamisesta. Lisäksi oppaassa on ohjattujen tuokioiden suunnitelmat ja ohjeet tuokioiden pitämiseen. Oppaassa on runsaasti kuvia elävöittämässä ulkoasua ja se on helppolukuinen. Opas on hyödyllinen työväline varhaiskasvattajille sekä kenelle tahansa kielen kehityksestä kiinnostuneelle henkilölle. Ohjattujen tuokioiden vaikutusta lasten kielen kehitykseen on haastavaa arvioida, sillä tuokioiden kokeilujakso oli lyhyt. Lasten tuokioihin osallistuminen oli vaihtelevaa, joten yksittäisen lapsen saamaa hyötyä on vaikea arvioida. Ohjattujen tuokioiden aikana oli huomattavissa edistystä lasten sosiaalisissa taidoissa, rohkeammassa itseilmaisussa ja asioiden nimeämisessä. Lasten luottamus ohjaajia kohtaan lisääntyi prosessin aikana. Tulevaisuudessa oppaan toimivuutta voisi tutkia esimerkiksi ohjaamalla tuokioita pitemmän jakson ajan ja testaamalla lasten kielellisiä taitoja testeillä.This thesis was a functional development process. Its client organization was Lumilinna Day Care Center in Iisalmi.The goal of the thesis was to develop a guidebook to support children’s language development in early childhood education with physical education and drama education. The guidebook helps at recognizing problems and supporting language development at an early stage. Early intervention decreases the risk of becoming socially excluded. During the development process guided sessions were planned and run in a group of 3-4-year old children. The language development was supported by the principles of inclusion. The children were not categorized by the stage of their language development. The guided sessions were based on four classic fairytales which were played through during the sessions. The guidebook was developed based on the guided sessions. The guidebook includes theoretical information about supporting children’s language development in early childhood education and child-centered teaching. It also includes instructions for all guided sessions. The guidebook is easy to read and it has a lot of pictures to brighten up the appearance. The guidebook is a useful tool for every early childhood educator or everyone who is interested in language development. The impact of the guided sessions is hard to evaluate because the test period was quite short. Children’s participation in sessions was versatile so it’s difficult to estimate the benefit to one individual. During the sessions, there was a noticiable development in children’s social skills, braver self expression and naming things. The confidence between the children and the instructors strengthened during the test period. In future, the effectivity of the guidebook could be studied for example by instructing a longer test period with more sessions and testing the children’s language skills before and after

S,M,L : the gap in Mariefred

En hotellbyggnad i orten Mariefred. Undersöker rummet som skapas i mellanrummet mellan mindre tyngre volymer, där hotellrum och andra privata program ryms.  Ett hotell ligger i en ort men befolkas av människor från en annan. Du har nog aldrig varit på det hotell som ligger i din egen hemort, men antalet hotell besökta i andra städer och länder är desto fler. Det gamla stadshotellet från förra sekelskiftet som fungerade som mötesplats för lokalbefolkningen är nu svår att hitta. I detta hotell riktas större delen av hotellet mot mariefredsborna. Besökarna kommer ju hit ändå? Huset fungerar som en mötesplats mariefredsbor emellan, men självklart också till turister och hotellgäster. Hotellet agerar också som en länk mellan Gripsholms slott och Mariefred som ort. Något mellan den stora staden och den lilla besökaren. I och med hotellets placering som stadsport sammanfattar den staden i tegel, trä, stort, litet, mariefredsbor och turister. S,M,L symboliserar alltså det lilla, det stora och hotellet därimellan. A hotel building in the town of Mariefred. Examines the room created in the gap between smaller heavier volumes, where hotel rooms and other private programs are placed. A hotel is located in one city but populated by people from another. You have probably never been to the hotel located where you live, but the number of hotels visited in other cities and countries are several. The typical swedish cityhotel from the early 20th century that served as a meeting place for locals is now difficult to find. In this project, main focus has been on the locals and towards Mariefred. Visitors will come here anyway? The house serves as a meeting place between people from Mariefred, but of course also for tourists and hotel guests. The hotel also acts as a link between the castle of Gripsholm and Mariefred city. Something between the big city and the small visitor. With the hotel's position as a portal to the city, it summarizes the town of brick, wood, large, small, people from Mariefred and tourists. S, M, L symbolizes thus the small, the great and the hotel in between

”VART ÄR VI PÅ VÄG?” / WHERE ARE WE GOING?

In the middle of the nineteenth century, the train came to Sweden. It has been just over 150 years and a lot has happened. With the train and its station came more then just a means of transportation, it turned Sweden from a developing country into one of the most modern. In the small Swedish cities and on the countryside, the stations became a central node, a meeting point and a place to gather. The train passed through previously isolated areas where the stations became not only just that but also a window towards the rest of the world. This project is a study of the Swedish train station and a humble proposal on how to treat them, what to do with them and when to do it (now)

Undersökning av en ny method för bländning av drönare med laser

Drones have become more common, and are commercially available for consumers. Small drones can be used for unauthorized information gathering, or to cause disruptions. This has created a need for safe, effective countermeasures against drones. In this thesis, a method for countermeasures against drone imaging is investigated. The method is based on aiming and focusing a laser beam toward the camera of the drone. The retroreflection from the target is used as a feedback signal. Risley prisms were used to aim the beam, and an electrowetting lens was used to control the focus. Control algorithms based on the method called Stochastic Parallel Gradient Descent (SPGD), line searching and the Kalman filter are presented and evaluated. An experimental setup was used to track a moving target and dazzle a camera, demonstrating the validity of the method. Additionally, a simulation environment was used to estimate the potential performance of the control algorithms in a realistic scenario, under ideal circumstances