Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN)--prospective validation of risk prediction models for adult patients with acute traumatic brain injury to use to evaluate the optimum location and comparative costs of neurocritical care: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To validate risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to use the best model to evaluate the optimum location and comparative costs of neurocritical care in the NHS. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Sixty-seven adult critical care units. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients admitted to critical care following actual/suspected TBI with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of < 15. INTERVENTIONS: Critical care delivered in a dedicated neurocritical care unit, a combined neuro/general critical care unit within a neuroscience centre or a general critical care unit outside a neuroscience centre. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality, Glasgow Outcome Scale - Extended (GOSE) questionnaire and European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, 3-level version (EQ-5D-3L) questionnaire at 6 months following TBI. RESULTS: The final Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) study data set contained 3626 admissions. After exclusions, 3210 patients with acute TBI were included. Overall follow-up rate at 6 months was 81%. Of 3210 patients, 101 (3.1%) had no GCS score recorded and 134 (4.2%) had a last pre-sedation GCS score of 15, resulting in 2975 patients for analysis. The most common causes of TBI were road traffic accidents (RTAs) (33%), falls (47%) and assault (12%). Patients were predominantly young (mean age 45 years overall) and male (76% overall). Six-month mortality was 22% for RTAs, 32% for falls and 17% for assault. Of survivors at 6 months with a known GOSE category, 44% had severe disability, 30% moderate disability and 26% made a good recovery. Overall, 61% of patients with known outcome had an unfavourable outcome (death or severe disability) at 6 months. Between 35% and 70% of survivors reported problems across the five domains of the EQ-5D-3L. Of the 10 risk models selected for validation, the best discrimination overall was from the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI Lab model (IMPACT) (c-index 0.779 for mortality, 0.713 for unfavourable outcome). The model was well calibrated for 6-month mortality but substantially underpredicted the risk of unfavourable outcome at 6 months. Baseline patient characteristics were similar between dedicated neurocritical care units and combined neuro/general critical care units. In lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis, dedicated neurocritical care units had higher mean lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at small additional mean costs with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £14,000 per QALY and incremental net monetary benefit (INB) of £17,000. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve suggested that the probability that dedicated compared with combined neurocritical care units are cost-effective is around 60%. There were substantial differences in case mix between the 'early' (within 18 hours of presentation) and 'no or late' (after 24 hours) transfer groups. After adjustment, the 'early' transfer group reported higher lifetime QALYs at an additional cost with an ICER of £11,000 and INB of £17,000. CONCLUSIONS: The risk models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The results suggest that management in a dedicated neurocritical care unit may be cost-effective compared with a combined neuro/general critical care unit (although there is considerable statistical uncertainty) and support current recommendations that all patients with severe TBI would benefit from transfer to a neurosciences centre, regardless of the need for surgery. We recommend further research to improve risk prediction models; consider alternative approaches for handling unobserved confounding; better understand long-term outcomes and alternative pathways of care; and explore equity of access to postcritical care support for patients following acute TBI. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

The spatial extent of tephra deposition and environmental impacts from the 1912 Novarupta eruption

The eruption of Novarupta within the Katmai Volcanic Cluster, south-west Alaska, in June 1912 was the most voluminous eruption of the twentieth century but the distal distribution of tephra deposition is inadequately quantified. We present new syntheses of published tephrostratigraphic studies and a large quantity of previously un-investigated historical records. For the first time, we apply a geostatistical technique, indicator kriging, to integrate and interpolate such data. Our results show evidence for tephra deposition across much of Alaska, Yukon, the northern Pacific, western British Columbia and northwestern Washington. The most distal tephra deposition was observed around 2,500 km downwind from the volcano. Associated with tephra deposition are many accounts of acid deposition and consequent impacts on vegetation and human health. Kriging offers several advantages as a means to integrate and present such data. Future eruptions of a scale similar to the 1912 event have the potential to cause widespread disruption. Historical records of tephra deposition extend far beyond the limit of deposition constrained by tephrostratigraphic records. The distal portion of tephra fallout deposits is rarely adequately mapped by tephrostratigraphy alone; contemporaneous reports of fallout can provide important constraints on the extent of impacts following large explosive eruptions

Body surface area and baseline blood pressure predict subclinical anthracycline cardiotoxicity in women treated for early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Anthracyclines are highly effective chemotherapeutic agents which may cause long-term cardiac damage (chronic anthracycline cardiotoxicity) and heart failure. The pathogenesis of anthracycline cardiotoxicity remains incompletely understood and individual susceptibility difficult to predict. We sought clinical features which might contribute to improved risk assessment. METHODS: Subjects were women with early breast cancer, free of pre-existing cardiac disease. Left ventricular ejection fraction was measured using cardiovascular magnetic resonance before and >12 months after anthracycline-based chemotherapy (>3 months post-Trastuzumab). Variables associated with subclinical cardiotoxicity (defined as a fall in left ventricular ejection fraction of ≥5%) were identified by logistic regression. RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-five women (mean age 48.3 years at enrollment) completed the study 21.7 months [IQR 18.0-26.8] after starting chemotherapy. All received anthracyclines (98.8% epirubicin, cumulative dose 400 [300-450] mg/m2); 18% Trastuzumab. Baseline blood pressure was elevated (≥140/90mmHg, mean 147.3/86.1mmHg) in 18 subjects. Thirty-four subjects (20.7%) were identified with subclinical cardiotoxicity, independent predictors of which were the number of anthracycline cycles (odds ratio, OR 1.64 [1.17-2.30] per cycle), blood pressure ≥140/90mmHg (OR 5.36 [1.73-17.61]), body surface area (OR 2.08 [1.36-3.20] per standard deviation (0.16m2) increase), and Trastuzumab therapy (OR 3.35 [1.18-9.51]). The resultant predictive-model had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.78 [0.70-0.86]. CONCLUSIONS: We found subclinical cardiotoxicity to be common even within this low risk cohort. Risk of cardiotoxicity was associated with modestly elevated baseline blood pressure-indicating that close attention should be paid to blood pressure in patients considered for anthracycline based chemotherapy. The association with higher body surface area suggests that indexing of anthracycline doses to surface area may not be appropriate for all, and points to the need for additional research in this area

Linking formal child care characteristics to children's socioemotional well-being: A comparative perspective

Most research on formal child care and children’s outcomes has focused on single countries. We, however, contend that policy context may moderate the association between formal child care characteristics and children’s socioemotional well-being. We examined this by comparing the Netherlands, Finland and the UK; three countries that differ regarding family policies. Of these three countries, Finland was recently ranked highest (ranked 1st) with regards to quality of child care in a recent analysis by the Economist ,followed by the UK (ranked 3rd) and then the Netherlands (ranked 7th) .We hypothesized that children who attend child - care settings in countries with higher- uality formal child- are provision would generally show better socioemotional outcomes. Data from the comparative ‘F amilies 24/7’ survey were used, including 990 parents with children aged 0–12. We distinguished between two age groups in our analysis. Results indicated that, compared to the UK, longer hours in formal care were less beneficial in the Netherlands. Furthermore, spen ding time in formal care during nonstandard hours was more harmful for children in Finland compared to the UK. Lastly, receiving care from multiple caregivers was more disruptive for British children than for Dutch children. No differences were found between Finland and the Netherlands

Key Role of Mfd in the Development of Fluoroquinolone Resistance in Campylobacter jejuni

Campylobacter jejuni is a major food-borne pathogen and a common causative agent of human enterocolitis. Fluoroquinolones are a key class of antibiotics prescribed for clinical treatment of enteric infections including campylobacteriosis, but fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter readily emerges under the antibiotic selection pressure. To understand the mechanisms involved in the development of fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter, we compared the gene expression profiles of C. jejuni in the presence and absence of ciprofloxacin using DNA microarray. Our analysis revealed that multiple genes showed significant changes in expression in the presence of a suprainhibitory concentration of ciprofloxacin. Most importantly, ciprofloxacin induced the expression of mfd, which encodes a transcription-repair coupling factor involved in strand-specific DNA repair. Mutation of the mfd gene resulted in an approximately 100-fold reduction in the rate of spontaneous mutation to ciprofloxacin resistance, while overexpression of mfd elevated the mutation frequency. In addition, loss of mfd in C. jejuni significantly reduced the development of fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter in culture media or chickens treated with fluoroquinolones. These findings indicate that Mfd is important for the development of fluoroquinolone resistance in Campylobacter, reveal a previously unrecognized function of Mfd in promoting mutation frequencies, and identify a potential molecular target for reducing the emergence of fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter

ISSN exercise & sport nutrition review: research & recommendations

Sports nutrition is a constantly evolving field with hundreds of research papers published annually. For this reason, keeping up to date with the literature is often difficult. This paper is a five year update of the sports nutrition review article published as the lead paper to launch the JISSN in 2004 and presents a well-referenced overview of the current state of the science related to how to optimize training and athletic performance through nutrition. More specifically, this paper provides an overview of: 1.) The definitional category of ergogenic aids and dietary supplements; 2.) How dietary supplements are legally regulated; 3.) How to evaluate the scientific merit of nutritional supplements; 4.) General nutritional strategies to optimize performance and enhance recovery; and, 5.) An overview of our current understanding of the ergogenic value of nutrition and dietary supplementation in regards to weight gain, weight loss, and performance enhancement. Our hope is that ISSN members and individuals interested in sports nutrition find this review useful in their daily practice and consultation with their clients

Achieving the "triple aim" for inborn errors of metabolism: a review of challenges to outcomes research and presentation of a new practice-based evidence framework

Across all areas of health care, decision makers are in pursuit of what Berwick and colleagues have called the “triple aim”: improving patient experiences with care, improving health outcomes, and managing health system impacts. This is challenging in a rare disease context, as exemplified by inborn errors of metabolism. There is a need for evaluative outcomes research to support effective and appropriate care for inborn errors of metabolism. We suggest that such research should consider interventions at both the level of the health system (e.g., early detection through newborn screening, programs to provide access to treatments) and the level of individual patient care (e.g., orphan drugs, medical foods). We have developed a practice- based evidence framework to guide outcomes research for inborn errors of metabolism. Focusing on outcomes across the triple aim, this framework integrates three priority themes: tailoring care in the context of clinical heterogeneity; a shift from “urgent care” to “opportunity for improvement”; and the need to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of emerging and established therapies. Guided by the framework, a new Canadian research network has been established to generate knowledge that will inform the design and delivery of health services for patients with inborn errors of metabolism and other rare diseases.This work was supported by a CIHR Emerging Team Grant (“Emerging team in rare diseases: acheiving the ‘triple aim’ for inborn errors of metabolism,” B.K. Potter, P. Chakraborty, and colleagues, 2012– 2017, grant no. TR3–119195). Current investigators and collaborators in the Canadian Inherited Metabolic Diseases Research Network are: B.K. Potter, P. Chakraborty, J. Kronick, D. Coyle, K. Wilson, M. Brownell, R. Casey, A. Chan, S. Dyack, L. Dodds, A. Feigenbaum, D. Fell, M. Geraghty, C. Greenberg, S. Grosse, A. Guttmann, A. Khan, J. Little, B. Maranda, J. MacKenzie, A. Mhanni, F. Miller, G. Mitchell, J. Mitchell, M. Nakhla, M. Potter, C. Prasad, K. Siriwardena, K.N. Speechley, S. Stocker, L. Turner, H. Vallance, and B.J. Wilson. Members of our external advisory board are D. Bidulka, T. Caulfield, J.T.R. Clarke, C. Doiron, K. El Emam, J. Evans, A. Kemper, W. McCormack, and A. Stephenson Julian. J. Little is supported by a Canada Research Chair in Human Genome Epidemiology. K. Wilson is supported by a Canada Research Chair in Public Health Policy