Quantitative Risk-Based Analysis for Military Counterterrorism Systems

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sysThis paper presents a realistic and practical approach to quantitatively assess the risk-reduction capabilities of military counterterrorism systems in terms of damage cost and casualty figures. The comparison of alternatives is thereby based on absolute quantities rather than an aggregated utility or value provided by multicriteria decision analysis methods. The key elements of the approach are (1) the use of decision-attack event trees for modeling and analyzing scenarios, (2) a portfolio model approach for analyzing multiple threats, and (3) the quantitative probabilistic risk assessment matrix for communicating the results. Decision-attack event trees are especially appropriate for modeling and analyzing terrorist attacks where the sequence of events and outcomes are time-sensitive. The actions of the attackers and the defenders are modeled as decisions and the outcomes are modeled as probabilistic events. The quantitative probabilistic risk assessment matrix provides information about the range of the possible outcomes while retaining the simplicity of the classic safety risk assessment matrix based on Mil-Std-882D. It therefore provides a simple and reliable tool for comparing alternatives on the basis of risk including confidence levels rather than single point estimates. This additional valuable information requires minimal additional effort. The proposed approach is illustrated using a simplified but realistic model of a destroyer operating in inland restricted waters. The complex problem of choosing a robust counterterrorism protection system against multiple terrorist threats is analyzed by introducing a surrogate multi-threat portfolio. The associated risk profile provides a practical approach for assessing the robustness of different counterterrorism systems against plausible terrorist threats. The paper documents the analysis for a hypothetical case of three potential threats.This work was performed as part of the Naval Postgraduate School institutionally funded research

A phase 1 clinical trial of vorinostat in combination with decitabine in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia or myelodysplastic syndrome

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/108599/1/bjh13016.pd

Integration of the Dynamic Model of Situated Cognition in the Design of Edge Organizations

13th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium (ICCRTS), June 17-19, 2008, Seattle, WA.Much of the R&D in Network Centric Warfare has been on technology. Improvements in connectivity and processing speed challenge the integration of technological and human elements into a single C2 framework. The Dynamic Model of Situated Cognition (DMSC) was developed as an analysis method explicitly representing the human- technology relationships. It takes into account that sensors are susceptible to errors and to attack; inaccurate data from technological systems may propagate as misinformation to decision-makers. Any organization, including edge organizations, then makes decisions under uncertainty. This paper analyzes the use of signal validation to address shortcomings of technological systems. The sensor system should present validated information to operators; and, when it cannot, it should identify uncertain information. Signal validation filters the blue forces’ sensor errors and red forces’ information warfare misinformation. As a result, the blue forces are presented with synthesized validated data or are informed it is uncertain. The impact of signal validation on knowledge flows and quality of decision-making in Command and Control processes using the DMSC is simulated with the computational modeling environment POW-ER (Project, Organization, and Work for Edge Research)

Neurogenic potential of engineered mesenchymal stem cells overexpressing VEGF.

Numerous signaling molecules are altered following nerve injury, serving as a blueprint for drug delivery approaches that promote nerve repair. However, challenges with achieving the appropriate temporal duration of recombinant protein delivery have limited the therapeutic success of this approach. Genetic engineering of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) to enhance the secretion of proangiogenic molecules such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) may provide an alternative. We hypothesized that the administration of VEGF-expressing human MSCs would stimulate neurite outgrowth and proliferation of cell-types involved in neural repair. When cultured with dorsal root ganglion (DRG) explants in vitro, control and VEGF-expressing MSCs (VEGF-MSCs) increased neurite extension and proliferation of Schwann cells (SCs) and endothelial cells, while VEGF-MSCs stimulated significantly greater proliferation of endothelial cells. When embedded within a 3D fibrin matrix, VEGF-MSCs maintained overexpression and expressed detectable levels over 21 days. After transplantation into a murine sciatic nerve injury model, VEGF-MSCs maintained high VEGF levels for 2 weeks. This study provides new insight into the role of VEGF on peripheral nerve injury and the viability of transplanted genetically engineered MSCs. The study aims to provide a framework for future studies with the ultimate goal of developing an improved therapy for nerve repair

Neutrophils promote hepatic metastasis growth through fibroblast growth factor 2-dependent angiogenesis in mice

Hepatic metastases are amenable to ablation, however many patients are not suitable candidates for such therapy and recurrence is common. The tumor microenvironment is known to be essential for metastatic growth, yet identification of plausible targets for cancer therapy in the microenvironment has proven elusive. We found that human colorectal cancer liver metastases and murine gastrointestinal experimental liver metastases are infiltrated by neutrophils. Plasticity in neutrophils has recently been shown to lead to both pro- and anti- tumor effects. Here, neutrophils promoted the growth of hepatic metastases, as depletion of neutrophils in already established, experimental, murine liver metastases led to diminished metastatic growth. Decreased growth was associated with reductions in vascular density and branching suggestive of vessel normalization Metastasis-associated neutrophils expressed substantially more FGF2 than naïve neutrophils indicating neutrophil polarization by the tumor microenvironment. Administration of FGF2 neutralizing antibody to mice bearing experimental liver metastases phenocopied neutrophil depletion by reducing liver metastatic colony growth, vascular density and branching. Conclusion Here we show using FGF2 as an example, that identification of factors responsible for the protumoral effects of infiltrating myeloid cells can be used to target established liver metastases. Such therapies could be utilized to limit disease progression and potentiate the effects of standard ablative therapies.</p