Improved representation of underwater light field and its impact on ecosystem dynamics: a study in the North Sea

Understanding ecosystem state on the North-West European (NWE) Shelf is of major im18 portance for both economy and climate research. The purpose of this work is to advance our modelling of in-water optics on the NWE Shelf, with important implications for how we model primary productivity, as well as for assimilation of water-leaving radiances. We implement a stand-alone bio-optical module into the existing coupled physical-biogeo-chemical model configuration. The advantage of the bio-optical module, when compared to the pre-existing light scheme is that it resolves the underwater light spectrally and distinguishes between direct and diffuse downwelling streams. The changed underwater light compares better with both satellite and in-situ observations. The module lowered the underwater Photosynthetically Active Radiation, decreasing the simulated primary productivity, but overall the improved underwater light had relatively limited impact on the phyto plankton seasonal dynamics. We showed that the model skill in representing phytoplankton seasonal cycle (e.g phytoplankton bloom) can be substantially improved either by assimilation of satellite Phytoplankton Functional Type (PFT) chlorophyll, or by assimilating a novel PFT absorption product. Assimilation of the two PFT products yields similar results, with an important difference in the PFT community structure. Both assimilative runs lead to lower plankton biomass and increase the nutrient concentrations. We discuss some future directions on how to improve our model skill in biogeochemistry without using as similation, e.g. by improving nutrient forcing, re-tuning the model parameters and using the bio-optical module to provide a two-way physical-biogeochemical coupling, improving the consistency between model physical and biogeochemical components

An Empirical Approach to Ocean Color Data: Reducing Bias and the Need for Post-Launch Radiometric Re-Calibration

A new empirical approach is developed for ocean color remote sensing. Called the Empirical Satellite Radiance-In situ Data (ESRID) algorithm, the approach uses relationships between satellite water-leaving radiances and in situ data after full processing, i.e., at Level-3, to improve estimates of surface variables while relaxing requirements on post-launch radiometric re-calibration. The approach is evaluated using SeaWiFS chlorophyll, which is the longest time series of the most widely used ocean color geophysical product. The results suggest that ESRID 1) drastically reduces the bias of ocean chlorophyll, most impressively in coastal regions, 2) modestly improves the uncertainty, and 3) reduces the sensitivity of global annual median chlorophyll to changes in radiometric re-calibration. Simulated calibration errors of 1% or less produce small changes in global median chlorophyll (less than 2.7%). In contrast, the standard NASA algorithm set is highly sensitive to radiometric calibration: similar 1% calibration errors produce changes in global median chlorophyll up to nearly 25%. We show that 0.1% radiometric calibration error (about 1% in water-leaving radiance) is needed to prevent radiometric calibration errors from changing global annual median chlorophyll more than the maximum interannual variability observed in the SeaWiFS 9-year record (+/- 3%), using the standard method. This is much more stringent than the goal for SeaWiFS of 5% uncertainty for water leaving radiance. The results suggest ocean color programs might consider less emphasis of expensive efforts to improve post-launch radiometric re-calibration in favor of increased efforts to characterize in situ observations of ocean surface geophysical products. Although the results here are focused on chlorophyll, in principle the approach described by ESRID can be applied to any surface variable potentially observable by visible remote sensing

Gas adsorption/desorption in silica aerogels: a theoretical study of scattering properties

We present a numerical study of the structural correlations associated to gas adsorption/desorption in silica aerogels in order to provide a theoretical interpretation of scattering experiments. Following our earlier work, we use a coarse-grained lattice-gas description and determine the nonequilibrium behavior of the adsorbed gas within a local mean-field analysis. We focus on the differences between the adsorption and desorption mechanisms and their signature in the fluid-fluid and gel-fluid structure factors as a function of temperature. At low temperature, but still in the regime where the isotherms are continuous, we find that the adsorbed fluid density, during both filling and draining, is correlated over distances that may be much larger than the gel correlation length. In particular, extended fractal correlations may occur during desorption, indicating the existence of a ramified cluster of vapor filled cavities. This also induces an important increase of the scattering intensity at small wave vectors. The similarity and differences with the scattering of fluids in other porous solids such as Vycor are discussed.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figure

Vegetable Lecithin as an Antioxidant

Vegetable lecithins have been recommended for use as antioxygenic or stabilizing substances to delay rancidity in fats and oils, although complete experimental evidence as to their efficacy is lacking. Measuring the induction period of the oxidation of lard by means of the oven-test, two commercial samples of soy-bean lecithin were shown to be weak antioxidants, having indices of 1.7 and 1.8 respectively

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions

Capturing optically important constituents and properties in a marine biogeochemical and ecosystem model

We present a numerical model of the ocean that couples a three-stream radiative transfer component with a marine biogeochemical–ecosystem component in a dynamic three-dimensional physical framework. The radiative transfer component resolves the penetration of spectral irradiance as it is absorbed and scattered within the water column. We explicitly include the effect of several optically important water constituents (different phytoplankton functional types; detrital particles; and coloured dissolved organic matter, CDOM). The model is evaluated against in situ-observed and satellite-derived products. In particular we compare to concurrently measured biogeochemical, ecosystem, and optical data along a meridional transect of the Atlantic Ocean. The simulation captures the patterns and magnitudes of these data, and estimates surface upwelling irradiance analogous to that observed by ocean colour satellite instruments. We find that incorporating the different optically important constituents explicitly and including spectral irradiance was crucial to capture the variability in the depth of the subsurface chlorophyll a (Chl a) maximum. We conduct a series of sensitivity experiments to demonstrate, globally, the relative importance of each of the water constituents, as well as the crucial feedbacks between the light field, the relative fitness of phytoplankton types, and the biogeochemistry of the ocean. CDOM has proportionally more importance at attenuating light at short wavelengths and in more productive waters, phytoplankton absorption is relatively more important at the subsurface Chl a maximum, and water molecules have the greatest contribution when concentrations of other constituents are low, such as in the oligotrophic gyres. Scattering had less effect on attenuation, but since it is important for the amount and type of upwelling irradiance, it is crucial for setting sea surface reflectance. Strikingly, sensitivity experiments in which absorption by any of the optical constituents was increased led to a decrease in the size of the oligotrophic regions of the subtropical gyres: lateral nutrient supplies were enhanced as a result of decreasing high-latitude productivity. This new model that captures bio-optical feedbacks will be important for improving our understanding of the role of light and optical constituents on ocean biogeochemistry, especially in a changing environment. Further, resolving surface upwelling irradiance will make it easier to connect to satellite-derived products in the future

The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru

Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru. Methods Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 69 from any and from each of the following NCDs: cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated the contribution of each NCD to the change in the unconditional probability of dying from any of these NCDs between 2006 and 2016. Results The overall unconditional probability of dying improved for men (21.4%) and women (23.3%). Cancer accounted for 10.9% in men and 13.7% in women of the overall reduction; cardiovascular diseases also contributed substantially: 11.3% in men) and 9.8% in women. Consistently in men and women and across regions, diabetes moved in the opposite direction of the overall reduction in the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD. Diabetes contributed a rise in the unconditional probability of 3.6% in men and 2.1% in women. Conclusions Although the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD has decreased, diabetes would prevent Peru from meeting international targets. Policies are needed to prevent diabetes and to strengthen healthcare to avoid diabetes-related complications and delay mortality

Phase transitions in nanosystems caused by interface motion: The Ising bi-pyramid with competing surface fields

The phase behavior of a large but finite Ising ferromagnet in the presence of competing surface magnetic fields +/- H_s is studied by Monte Carlo simulations and by phenomenological theory. Specifically, the geometry of a double pyramid of height 2L is considered, such that the surface field is positive on the four upper triangular surfaces of the bi-pyramid and negative on the lower ones. It is shown that the total spontaneous magnetization vanishes (for L -> infinity) at the temperature T_f(H), related to the "filling transition" of a semi-infinite pyramid, which can be well below the critical temperature of the bulk. The discontinuous vanishing of the magnetization is accompanied by a susceptibility that diverges with a Curie-Weiss power law, when the transition is approached from either side. A Landau theory with size-dependent critical amplitudes is proposed to explain these observations, and confirmed by finite size scaling analysis of the simulation results. The extension of these results to other nanosystems (gas-liquid systems, binary mixtures, etc.) is briefly discussed