On the accuracy of language trees

Historical linguistics aims at inferring the most likely language phylogenetic tree starting from information concerning the evolutionary relatedness of languages. The available information are typically lists of homologous (lexical, phonological, syntactic) features or characters for many different languages. From this perspective the reconstruction of language trees is an example of inverse problems: starting from present, incomplete and often noisy, information, one aims at inferring the most likely past evolutionary history. A fundamental issue in inverse problems is the evaluation of the inference made. A standard way of dealing with this question is to generate data with artificial models in order to have full access to the evolutionary process one is going to infer. This procedure presents an intrinsic limitation: when dealing with real data sets, one typically does not know which model of evolution is the most suitable for them. A possible way out is to compare algorithmic inference with expert classifications. This is the point of view we take here by conducting a thorough survey of the accuracy of reconstruction methods as compared with the Ethnologue expert classifications. We focus in particular on state-of-the-art distance-based methods for phylogeny reconstruction using worldwide linguistic databases. In order to assess the accuracy of the inferred trees we introduce and characterize two generalizations of standard definitions of distances between trees. Based on these scores we quantify the relative performances of the distance-based algorithms considered. Further we quantify how the completeness and the coverage of the available databases affect the accuracy of the reconstruction. Finally we draw some conclusions about where the accuracy of the reconstructions in historical linguistics stands and about the leading directions to improve it.Comment: 36 pages, 14 figure

The Settlement of Madagascar: What Dialects and Languages Can Tell Us

The dialects of Madagascar belong to the Greater Barito East group of the Austronesian family and it is widely accepted that the Island was colonized by Indonesian sailors after a maritime trek that probably took place around 650 CE. The language most closely related to Malagasy dialects is Maanyan, but Malay is also strongly related especially for navigation terms. Since the Maanyan Dayaks live along the Barito river in Kalimantan (Borneo) and they do not possess the necessary skill for long maritime navigation, they were probably brought as subordinates by Malay sailors. In a recent paper we compared 23 different Malagasy dialects in order to determine the time and the landing area of the first colonization. In this research we use new data and new methods to confirm that the landing took place on the south-east coast of the Island. Furthermore, we are able to state here that colonization probably consisted of a single founding event rather than multiple settlements.To reach our goal we find out the internal kinship relations among all the 23 Malagasy dialects and we also find out the relations of the 23 dialects to Malay and Maanyan. The method used is an automated version of the lexicostatistic approach. The data from Madagascar were collected by the author at the beginning of 2010 and consist of Swadesh lists of 200 items for 23 dialects covering all areas of the Island. The lists for Maanyan and Malay were obtained from a published dataset integrated with the author's interviews

Does Lateral Transmission Obscure Inheritance in Hunter-Gatherer Languages?

In recent years, linguists have begun to increasingly rely on quantitative phylogenetic approaches to examine language evolution. Some linguists have questioned the suitability of phylogenetic approaches on the grounds that linguistic evolution is largely reticulate due to extensive lateral transmission, or borrowing, among languages. The problem may be particularly pronounced in hunter-gatherer languages, where the conventional wisdom among many linguists is that lexical borrowing rates are so high that tree building approaches cannot provide meaningful insights into evolutionary processes. However, this claim has never been systematically evaluated, in large part because suitable data were unavailable. In addition, little is known about the subsistence, demographic, ecological, and social factors that might mediate variation in rates of borrowing among languages. Here, we evaluate these claims with a large sample of hunter-gatherer languages from three regions around the world. In this study, a list of 204 basic vocabulary items was collected for 122 hunter-gatherer and small-scale cultivator languages from three ecologically diverse case study areas: northern Australia, northwest Amazonia, and California and the Great Basin. Words were rigorously coded for etymological (inheritance) status, and loan rates were calculated. Loan rate variability was examined with respect to language area, subsistence mode, and population size, density, and mobility; these results were then compared to the sample of 41 primarily agriculturalist languages in [1]. Though loan levels varied both within and among regions, they were generally low in all regions (mean 5.06%, median 2.49%, and SD 7.56), despite substantial demographic, ecological, and social variation. Amazonian levels were uniformly very low, with no language exhibiting more than 4%. Rates were low but more variable in the other two study regions, in part because of several outlier languages where rates of borrowing were especially high. High mobility, prestige asymmetries, and language shift may contribute to the high rates in these outliers. No support was found for claims that hunter-gatherer languages borrow more than agriculturalist languages. These results debunk the myth of high borrowing in hunter-gatherer languages and suggest that the evolution of these languages is governed by the same type of rules as those operating in large-scale agriculturalist speech communities. The results also show that local factors are likely to be more critical than general processes in determining high (or low) loan rates

An observational study of once-daily modified-release methylphenidate in ADHD: effectiveness on symptoms and impairment, and safety

ADHD affects over 5% of children worldwide. It is typically treated with stimulant medications, and methylphenidate (MPH) is the most commonly prescribed. This study investigated the effectiveness, on symptoms and impairment, and safety of Equasym XL®, a combination of 30% immediate-release and 70% modified-release MPH, in the treatment of ADHD in daily clinical practice. This open-label, observational, post-marketing surveillance study was conducted in 169 centres in Germany. Eligible patients, aged 6–17 years, were diagnosed with ADHD and about to begin treatment with Equasym XL®. Effectiveness was assessed by physicians using the clinical global impression (CGI) severity and improvement scales; teachers and parents completed questionnaires evaluating ADHD symptoms and behavioural problems (DAYAS, FBB-ADHD and SDQ-P). Assessments were carried out at baseline, after 1–3 and 6–12 weeks of treatment. Of 852 enrolled patients, 822 were evaluable; 25.30% were treatment naïve, 69.84% had previously received different MPH formulations, and 4.87% had received other medications. ADHD symptoms improved from baseline to last visit for the majority of patients for all outcome measures. According to physician ratings of core ADHD symptoms, 75.73% of patients showed improvements on the CGI-Improvement scale, 17.77% had no change, and 6.50% worsened. In teacher and parent ratings, the effectiveness of Equasym XL® was rated better than prior therapy at all measured time points across the day, particularly late morning (teachers) and early afternoon (parents). Equasym XL® was generally well tolerated; only 3.16% of patients permanently discontinued treatment due to adverse events. Equasym XL® is effective and well tolerated in daily clinical practice

Cultural Phylogenetics of the Tupi Language Family in Lowland South America

Background: Recent advances in automated assessment of basic vocabulary lists allow the construction of linguistic phylogenies useful for tracing dynamics of human population expansions, reconstructing ancestral cultures, and modeling transition rates of cultural traits over time. Methods: Here we investigate the Tupi expansion, a widely-dispersed language family in lowland South America, with a distance-based phylogeny based on 40-word vocabulary lists from 48 languages. We coded 11 cultural traits across the diverse Tupi family including traditional warfare patterns, post-marital residence, corporate structure, community size, paternity beliefs, sibling terminology, presence of canoes, tattooing, shamanism, men’s houses, and lip plugs. Results/Discussion: The linguistic phylogeny supports a Tupi homeland in west-central Brazil with subsequent major expansions across much of lowland South America. Consistently, ancestral reconstructions of cultural traits over the linguistic phylogeny suggest that social complexity has tended to decline through time, most notably in the independent emergence of several nomadic hunter-gatherer societies. Estimated rates of cultural change across the Tupi expansion are on the order of only a few changes per 10,000 years, in accord with previous cultural phylogenetic results in other languag

The Murchison Widefield Array Transients Survey (MWATS). A search for low-frequency variability in a bright Southern hemisphere sample

We report on a search for low-frequency radio variability in 944 bright (>4 Jy at 154 MHz) unresolved, extragalactic radio sources monitored monthly for several years with the Murchison Widefield Array. In the majority of sources, we find very low levels of variability with typical modulation indices 2.8 yr) with time-averaged modulation indices M¯¯¯¯¯=3.1−7.1M¯=3.1−7.1 per cent. With 7/15 of these variable sources having peaked spectral energy distributions, and only 5.7 per cent of the overall sample having peaked spectra, we find an increase in the prevalence of variability in this spectral class. We conclude that the variability seen in this survey is most probably a consequence of refractive interstellar scintillation and that these objects must have the majority of their flux density contained within angular diameters less than 50 milliarcsec (which we support with multiwavelength data). At 154 MHz, we demonstrate that interstellar scintillation time-scales become long (∼decades) and have low modulation indices, while synchrotron-driven variability can only produce dynamic changes on time-scales of hundreds of years, with flux density changes less than one milli-jansky (without relativistic boosting). From this work, we infer that the low-frequency extragalactic southern sky, as seen by SKA-Low, will be non-variable on time-scales shorter than 1 yr

Preschool hyperactivity specifically elevates long-term mental health risks more strongly in males than females: a prospective longitudinal study through to young adulthood

Evidence of continuities between preschool hyperactivity and adult mental health problems highlight the potential value of targeting early identification and intervention strategies. However, specific risk factors are currently unclear. This large-scale prospective longitudinal study aimed to identify which hyperactive preschoolers are at greatest long-term risk of poor mental health. One hundred and seventy children (89 females) rated as hyperactive by their parents and 88 non-hyperactive controls (48 females) were identified from a community sample of 4,215 3 year-olds. Baseline data relating to behavioral/emotional problems and background characteristics were collected. Follow-up mental health and functional impairment outcomes were collected between 14 and 25 years of age. At age 3 years, males and females in the hyperactive group had similarly raised levels of hyperactivity and other behavior problems. In adolescence/young adulthood, these individuals showed elevated symptoms of ADHD, conduct disorder, mood disorder, anxiety and autism, as well as functional impairment. Preschool hyperactivity was strongly predictive of poor adolescent/adult outcomes for males across domains with effects being specifically driven by hyperactivity. For females, the effects of preschool hyperactivity were smaller and dropped to non-significant levels when other preschool problems were taken into account. Environmental risk factors also differed between the sexes, although these may also have been mediated by genetic risk. In conclusion, these results demonstrate marked sex differences in preschool predictors of later adolescent/adult mental health problems. Future research should include a measure of preschool inattention as well hyperactivity. The findings highlight the potential value of tailored approaches to early identification strategies

Comparative phylogenetic methods and the cultural evolution of medicinal plant use

Human life depends on plant biodiversity and the ways in which plants are used are culturally determined. Whilst anthropologists have used phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) to gain an increasingly sophisticated understanding of the evolution of political, religious, social, and material culture, plant use has been almost entirely neglected. Medicinal plants are of special interest because of their role in maintaining people’s health across the world. PCMs in particular, and cultural evolutionary theory in general, provide a framework in which to study the diversity of medicinal plant applications cross-culturally, and to infer changes in plant use through time. These methods can be applied to single medicinal plants as well as the entire set of plants used by a culture for medicine, and they account for the non-independence of data when testing for floristic, cultural or other drivers of plant use. With cultural, biological, and linguistic diversity under threat, gaining a deeper and broader understanding of the variation of medicinal plant use through time and space is pressing

Why Rice Farmers Don't Sail: Coastal Subsistence Traditions and Maritime Trends in Early China

The Lower Yangtze River Valley is a key region for the early development of rice farming and the emergence of wet rice paddy field systems. Subsistence evidence from Neolithic sites in this area highlights the importance of freshwater wetlands for both plant and animal food resources. Early Neolithic rice cultivators looked inland, especially to wetlands and nearby woodlands, for their main protein sources. Links to the sea among these Neolithic populations are notably scarce. Due to the high yields of wet rice, compared with other staple crops as well as dryland rice, the wetland rice focused subsistence strategy of the Lower Yangtze would have supported high, and increasing, local population densities. Paddy agriculture demands labor input and water management on a large scale, which would have stimulated and reinforced trends towards more complex societies, such as that represented by Liangzhu in the lower Yangtze region. Population growth could have been largely absorbed locally, suggesting that population packing, not migration, was the dominant trend. Other case studies of agricultural dispersal, for the Korean Peninsula and Japan further illustrate the lack of correlation between the spread of rice agriculture and wet rice cultivation. Although wet rice cultivation was a pull factor that drew local populations towards increased density and increased social complexity, it did not apparently push groups to migrate outwards. Instead, the transition from wetland to rain fed rice cultivation systems and/or the integration of rice with rain fed millet crops are much more likely to have driven the demographic dynamics that underpin early farmer migrations and crop dispersal

Attention training for infants at familial risk of ADHD (INTERSTAARS): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a prevalent neurodevelopmental disorder that can negatively impact on an individual’s quality of life. It is pathophysiologically complex and heterogeneous with different neuropsychological processes being impaired in different individuals. Executive function deficits, including those affecting attention, working memory and inhibitory control, are common. Cognitive training has been promoted as a treatment option, based on the notion that by strengthening the neurocognitive networks underlying these executive processes, ADHD symptoms will also be reduced. However, if implemented in childhood or later, when the full disorder has become well-established, cognitive training has only limited value. INTERSTAARS is a trial designed to test a novel approach to intervention, in which cognitive training is implemented early in development, before the emergence of the disorder. The aim of INTERSTAARS is to train early executive skills, thereby increasing resilience and reducing later ADHD symptoms and associated impairment. Methods/design: Fifty 10–14-month-old infants at familial risk of ADHD will participate in INTERSTAARS. Infants will be randomised to an intervention or a control group. The intervention aims to train early attention skills by using novel eye-tracking technology and gaze-contingent training paradigms. Infants view animated games on a screen and different events take place contingent on where on the screen the infant is looking. Infants allocated to the intervention will receive nine weekly home-based attention training sessions. Control group infants will also receive nine weekly home visits, but instead of viewing the training games during these visits they will view non-gaze-contingent age-appropriate videos. At baseline and post treatment, infant attention control will be assessed using a range of eye-tracking, observational, parent-report and neurophysiological measures. The primary outcome will be a composite of eye-tracking tasks used to assess infant attention skills. Follow-up data will be collected on emerging ADHD symptoms when the infants are 2 and 3 years old. Discussion: This is the first randomised controlled trial to assess the potential efficacy of cognitive training as a prevention measure for infants at familial risk of ADHD. If successful, INTERSTAARS could offer a promising new approach for developing early interventions for ADHD. Trial registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry: ISRCTN37683928. Registered on 22 June 2015