A longer vernal window: The role of winter coldness and snowpack in driving spring thresholds and lags

Climate change is altering the timing and duration of the vernal window, a period that marks the end of winter and the start of the growing season when rapid transitions in ecosystem energy, water, nutrient, and carbon dynamics take place. Research on this period typically captures only a portion of the ecosystem in transition and focuses largely on the dates by which the system wakes up. Previous work has not addressed lags between transitions that represent delays in energy, water, nutrient, and carbon flows. The objectives of this study were to establish the sequence of physical and biogeochemical transitions and lags during the vernal window period and to understand how climate change may alter them. We synthesized observations from a statewide sensor network in New Hampshire, USA, that concurrently monitored climate, snow, soils, and streams over a three-year period and supplemented these observations with climate reanalysis data, snow data assimilation model output, and satellite spectral data. We found that some of the transitions that occurred within the vernal window were sequential, with air temperatures warming prior to snow melt, which preceded forest canopy closure. Other transitions were simultaneous with one another and had zero-length lags, such as snowpack disappearance, rapid soil warming, and peak stream discharge. We modeled lags as a function of both winter coldness and snow depth, both of which are expected to decline with climate change. Warmer winters with less snow resulted in longer lags and a more protracted vernal window. This lengthening of individual lags and of the entire vernal window carries important consequences for the thermodynamics and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, both during the winter-to-spring transition and throughout the rest of the year

Population structure and connectivity of the mountainous star coral, Orbicella faveolata , throughout the wider Caribbean region

As coral reefs continue to decline worldwide, it becomes ever more necessary to understand the connectivity between coral populations to develop efficient management strategies facilitating survival and adaptation of coral reefs in the future. Orbicella faveolata is one of the most important reef-building corals in the Caribbean and has recently experienced severe population reductions. Here, we utilize a panel of nine microsatellite loci to evaluate the genetic structure of O. faveolata and to infer connectivity across ten sites spanning the wider Caribbean region. Populations are generally well-mixed throughout the basin (FST = 0.038), although notable patterns of substructure arise at local and regional scales. Eastern and western populations appear segregated with a genetic break around the Mona Passage in the north, as has been shown previously in other species; however, we find evidence for significant connectivity between Curaçao and Mexico, suggesting that the southern margin of this barrier is permeable to dispersal. Our results also identify a strong genetic break within the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System associated with complex oceanographic patterns that promote larval retention in southern Belize. Additionally, the diverse genetic signature at Flower Garden Banks suggests its possible function as a downstream genetic sink. The findings reported here are relevant to the ongoing conservation efforts for this important and threatened species, and contribute to the growing understanding of large-scale coral reef connectivity throughout the wider Caribbean

Population structure and connectivity of the mountainous star coral, Orbicella faveolata , throughout the wider Caribbean region

As coral reefs continue to decline worldwide, it becomes ever more necessary to understand the connectivity between coral populations to develop efficient management strategies facilitating survival and adaptation of coral reefs in the future. Orbicella faveolata is one of the most important reef-building corals in the Caribbean and has recently experienced severe population reductions. Here, we utilize a panel of nine microsatellite loci to evaluate the genetic structure of O. faveolata and to infer connectivity across ten sites spanning the wider Caribbean region. Populations are generally well-mixed throughout the basin (FST = 0.038), although notable patterns of substructure arise at local and regional scales. Eastern and western populations appear segregated with a genetic break around the Mona Passage in the north, as has been shown previously in other species; however, we find evidence for significant connectivity between Curaçao and Mexico, suggesting that the southern margin of this barrier is permeable to dispersal. Our results also identify a strong genetic break within the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System associated with complex oceanographic patterns that promote larval retention in southern Belize. Additionally, the diverse genetic signature at Flower Garden Banks suggests its possible function as a downstream genetic sink. The findings reported here are relevant to the ongoing conservation efforts for this important and threatened species, and contribute to the growing understanding of large-scale coral reef connectivity throughout the wider Caribbean

Reducing the impact of physical inactivity: evidence to support the case for targeting people with chronic mental and physical conditions

Background : Recent evidence suggests that small increases in the physical activity of those considered least active can have a bigger health impact than raising levels of those already achieving or close to achieving recommendations. Profiling the characteristics of those who are least active allows for appropriate targeting of interventions. This study therefore examined the characteristics of people in the lowest physical activity bracket. Methods : Data were taken from the Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) funded ‘South Yorkshire Cohort’, a longitudinal observational dataset of residents of South Yorkshire, England. Five separate outcomes based on a shortened version of the GPPAQ were used to represent the lowest levels of physical activity. Potential predictors examined were age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, chronic conditions, current employment and deprivation. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were conducted. Results : Individuals with chronic mental and physical conditions (fatigue, insomnia, anxiety, depression, diabetes, breathing problems, high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke and cancer) were more likely to report the lowest levels of physical activity across all five outcomes. Demographic variations were also observed. Conclusions : Targeting people with chronic mental and physical conditions has the potential to reduce the impact of physical inactivity.</p

The Effect of Two Elementary School-Based Prevention Interventions on Being Offered Tobacco and the Transition to Smoking

Aims: This study sought to more precisely delineate the mechanisms by which two early elementary school-based, universal (i.e., applied to the entire population regardless of risk status) preventive interventions increased survival to first tobacco cigarette smoked. Specifically, we examined whether the interventions\u27 effect on survival to first use was via the reduction of offers to smoke and/or through preventing the transition from first offer to smoking. Methods: A total of 678 urban first-graders were assigned randomly to the classroom-centered (CC), or the family-school partnership (FSP), or a control classroom condition. Youth were followed annually until 1 year beyond their anticipated high school graduation (mean age ∼18 years). Discrete-time survival analyses on 628 youth evaluated the impact of the CC and FSP interventions on first tobacco offer and initial tobacco smoking once offered. Findings: The risk of being offered tobacco was reduced among both CC and FSP intervention groups relative to the control group, although the reduction was only statistically significant for the CC intervention. Neither intervention condition reduced the transition to smoking once offered tobacco to smoke. Conclusion: The CC intervention appeared to have its effect on survival to first cigarette smoked by delaying the first offer to smoke. Preventive interventions focused on refusal skills during the middle school years may be necessary to reduce the likelihood of the transition to smoking once offered

The Age, Extinction and Distance of the Old, Metal-Rich Open Cluster NGC 6791

An extensive grid of metal-rich isochrones utilizing the latest available input physics has been calculated for comparison with the old, metal-rich open cluster NGC 6791. The isochrones have been simultaneously fit to BV and VI color magnitude diagrams, with the same composition, reddening and distance modulus required for both colors. Our best fitting isochrone assumes [Fe/H] = +0.4, scaled solar abundance ratios, and dY/dZ = 2 (Y = 0.31), yielding an excellent fit to the data at all points along the major sequences. The resulting age is 8 Gyr, with E(B-V) = 0.10 and (m-M)_v = 13.42. The derived cluster parameters are fairly robust to variations in the isochrone [Fe/H] and helium abundances. All of the acceptable fits indicate that 0.07 < E(B-V) < 0.14$, 13.29 < (m-M)_v < 13.46, and that NGC 6791 has an age of 8.0+/- 0.5 Gyr. The fits also suggest that dY/dZ lies between 1 and 3. A metallicity as low as solar is clearly ruled out, as is dY/dZ = 0. Comparison with previous isochrone studies indicates that the derived reddening is primarily due to our use of the most recent color transformations, whereas the age depends upon both the colors and the input physics. Our isochrones provide an excellent fit to the Hyades zero-age main sequence as determined by Hipparcos, providing evidence that our derived reddening and distance modulus are reliable.Comment: 37 pages, 13 figures, to appear in A

Application of a Key Events Dose-Response Analysis to Nutrients: A Case Study with Vitamin A (Retinol)

The methodology used to establish tolerable upper intake levels (UL) for nutrients borrows heavily from risk assessment methods used by toxicologists. Empirical data are used to identify intake levels associated with adverse effects, and Uncertainty Factors (UF) are applied to establish ULs, which in turn inform public health decisions and standards. Use of UFs reflects lack of knowledge regarding the biological events that underlie response to the intake of a given nutrient, and also regarding the sources of variability in that response. In this paper, the Key Events Dose-Response Framework (KEDRF) is used to systematically consider the major biological steps that lead from the intake of the preformed vitamin A to excess systemic levels, and subsequently to increased risk of adverse effects. Each step is examined with regard to factors that influence whether there is progression toward the adverse effect of concern. The role of homeostatic mechanisms is discussed, along with the types of research needed to improve understanding of dose-response for vitamin A. This initial analysis illustrates the potential of the KEDRF as a useful analytical tool for integrating current knowledge regarding dose-response, generating questions that will focus future research efforts, and clarifying how improved knowledge and data could be used to reduce reliance on UFs

Spitzer observations of a 24 micron shadow: Bok Globule CB190

We present Spitzer observations of the dark globule CB190 (L771). We observe a roughly circular 24 micron shadow with a 70 arcsec radius. The extinction profile of this shadow matches the profile derived from 2MASS photometry at the outer edges of the globule and reaches a maximum of ~32 visual magnitudes at the center. The corresponding mass of CB190 is ~10 Msun. Our 12CO and 13CO J = 2-1 data over a 10 arcmin X 10 arcmin region centered on the shadow show a temperature ~10 K. The thermal continuum indicates a similar temperature for the dust. The molecular data also show evidence of freezeout onto dust grains. We estimate a distance to CB190 of 400 pc using the spectroscopic parallax of a star associated with the globule. Bonnor-Ebert fits to the density profile, in conjunction with this distance, yield xi_max = 7.2, indicating that CB190 may be unstable. The high temperature (56 K) of the best fit Bonnor-Ebert model is in contradiction with the CO and thermal continuum data, leading to the conclusion that the thermal pressure is not enough to prevent free-fall collapse. We also find that the turbulence in the cloud is inadequate to support it. However, the cloud may be supported by the magnetic field, if this field is at the average level for dark globules. Since the magnetic field will eventually leak out through ambipolar diffusion, it is likely that CB190 is collapsing or in a late pre-collapse stage.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Potential Risks of Excess Iodine Ingestion and Exposure: Statement by the American Thyroid Association Public Health Committee

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140261/1/thy.2014.0331.pd