Estimating Nosocomial Infection and its Outcomes in Hospital Patients in England with a Diagnosis of COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 nosocomial infections (NIs) may have played a significant role in the dynamics of the pandemic in England, but analysis of their impact at the national scale has been lacking. Our aim was to provide a comprehensive account of NIs, identify their characteristics and outcomes in patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 and use machine learning modelling to refine these estimates. METHODS: From the Hospital Episodes Statistics database all adult hospital patients in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 and discharged between March 1st 2020 and March 31st 2021 were identified. A cohort of suspected COVID-19 NIs was identified using four empirical methods linked to hospital coding. A random forest classifier was designed to model the relationship between acquiring NIs and the covariates: patient characteristics, comorbidities, frailty, trust capacity strain and severity of COVID-19 infections. FINDINGS: In total, 374,244 adult patients with COVID-19 were discharged during the study period. The four empirical methods identified 29,896 (8.0%) patients with NIs. The random forest classifier estimated a mean NI rate of 10.5%, with a peak close to 18% during the first wave, but much lower rates thereafter and around 7% in early spring 2021. NIs were highly correlated with longer lengths of stay, high trust capacity strain, greater age and a higher degree of patient frailty. NIs were also found to be associated with higher mortality rates and more severe COVID-19 sequelae, including pneumonia, kidney disease and sepsis. INTERPRETATION: Identification of the characteristics of patients who acquire NIs should help trusts to identify those most at risk. The evolution of the NI rate over time may reflect the impact of changes in hospital management practices and vaccination efforts. Variations in NI rates across trusts may partly reflect different data recording and coding practice

Rotation of planet-harbouring stars

The rotation rate of a star has important implications for the detectability, characterisation and stability of any planets that may be orbiting it. This chapter gives a brief overview of stellar rotation before describing the methods used to measure the rotation periods of planet host stars, the factors affecting the evolution of a star's rotation rate, stellar age estimates based on rotation, and an overview of the observed trends in the rotation properties of stars with planets.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures: Invited review to appear in 'Handbook of Exoplanets', Springer Reference Works, edited by Hans J. Deeg and Juan Antonio Belmont

The SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Quasar Target Selection for Data Release Nine

The SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), a five-year spectroscopic survey of 10,000 deg^2, achieved first light in late 2009. One of the key goals of BOSS is to measure the signature of baryon acoustic oscillations in the distribution of Ly-alpha absorption from the spectra of a sample of ~150,000 z>2.2 quasars. Along with measuring the angular diameter distance at z\approx2.5, BOSS will provide the first direct measurement of the expansion rate of the Universe at z > 2. One of the biggest challenges in achieving this goal is an efficient target selection algorithm for quasars over 2.2 < z < 3.5, where their colors overlap those of stars. During the first year of the BOSS survey, quasar target selection methods were developed and tested to meet the requirement of delivering at least 15 quasars deg^-2 in this redshift range, out of 40 targets deg^-2. To achieve these surface densities, the magnitude limit of the quasar targets was set at g <= 22.0 or r<=21.85. While detection of the BAO signature in the Ly-alpha absorption in quasar spectra does not require a uniform target selection, many other astrophysical studies do. We therefore defined a uniformly-selected subsample of 20 targets deg^-2, for which the selection efficiency is just over 50%. This "CORE" subsample will be fixed for Years Two through Five of the survey. In this paper we describe the evolution and implementation of the BOSS quasar target selection algorithms during the first two years of BOSS operations. We analyze the spectra obtained during the first year. 11,263 new z>2.2 quasars were spectroscopically confirmed by BOSS. Our current algorithms select an average of 15 z > 2.2 quasars deg^-2 from 40 targets deg^-2 using single-epoch SDSS imaging. Multi-epoch optical data and data at other wavelengths can further improve the efficiency and completeness of BOSS quasar target selection. [Abridged]Comment: 33 pages, 26 figures, 12 tables and a whole bunch of quasars. Submitted to Ap

Untargeted UPLC-MS Profiling Pipeline to Expand Tissue Metabolome Coverage: Application to Cardiovascular Disease.

Metabolic profiling studies aim to achieve broad metabolome coverage in specific biological samples. However, wide metabolome coverage has proven difficult to achieve, mostly because of the diverse physicochemical properties of small molecules, obligating analysts to seek multiplatform and multimethod approaches. Challenges are even greater when it comes to applications to tissue samples, where tissue lysis and metabolite extraction can induce significant systematic variation in composition. We have developed a pipeline for obtaining the aqueous and organic compounds from diseased arterial tissue using two consecutive extractions, followed by a different untargeted UPLC-MS analysis method for each extract. Methods were rationally chosen and optimized to address the different physicochemical properties of each extract: hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) for the aqueous extract and reversed-phase chromatography for the organic. This pipeline can be generic for tissue analysis as demonstrated by applications to different tissue types. The experimental setup and fast turnaround time of the two methods contributed toward obtaining highly reproducible features with exceptional chromatographic performance (CV % < 0.5%), making this pipeline suitable for metabolic profiling applications. We structurally assigned 226 metabolites from a range of chemical classes (e.g., carnitines, α-amino acids, purines, pyrimidines, phospholipids, sphingolipids, free fatty acids, and glycerolipids) which were mapped to their corresponding pathways, biological functions and known disease mechanisms. The combination of the two untargeted UPLC-MS methods showed high metabolite complementarity. We demonstrate the application of this pipeline to cardiovascular disease, where we show that the analyzed diseased groups (<i>n </i>= 120) of arterial tissue could be distinguished based on their metabolic profiles

The influence of localised size reorganisation on short-duration bidispersed granular flows

We investigate experimentally the runout resulting from the collapse of a granular column containing two particle species that differ in size only. The experimental configuration is strictly twodimensional (only one particle per width of the experimental tank) and we explore both the role of the initial arrangement and proportion of the two particle sizes in the column, using high-speed videography, and by determining the centres of mass of the big and small particles in the initial column and the final deposit. The duration of the experiment is sufficiently short that large-scale segregation does not occur, however, we find a clear dependence of runout on both initial mixture arrangement and proportion for all conditions. We investigated this observation through detailed analysis of the flow front motion, and identify a characteristic "stopping" phase when dissipation dominates, and we apply a shallow layer model at the flow front to show how the initial mixture arrangement and proportion influence the effective coefficient of friction during emplacement. We find that a bidispersed mixture can induce a larger friction on emplacement than a monodispersed mixture, and the highest coefficient of friction was found for a well-mixed initial arrangement of particles at the proportion that shows maximum horizontal spreading of the flow. These observations suggest that downwards percolation of fine particles takes place at the front of the collapsing column, and so localised size segregation processes at the flow front can control flow mobility. This effect is likely to be important in controlling the mobility of large geophysical flows that occur on finite time scales, and whose deposits typically show granular segregation at the front and edges but not throughout the entire deposit

The pectoralis minor length test: a study of the intra-rater reliability and diagnostic accuracy in subjects with and without shoulder symptoms

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly citedBackground. Postural abnormality and muscle imbalance are thought to contribute to pain and a loss of normal function in the upper body. A shortened pectoralis minor muscle is commonly identified as part of this imbalance. Clinical tests have been recommended to test for shortening of this muscle. The aim of this study was to evaluate the intra-rater reliability and diagnostic accuracy of the pectoralis minor length test. Methods. Measurements were made in 45 subjects with and 45 subjects without shoulder symptoms. Measurements were made with the subjects lying in supine. In this position the linear distance from the treatment table to the posterior aspect of the acromion was measured on two occasions (separated by a minimum of 30 minutes and additional data collection on other subjects to reduce bias) by one rater. The reliability of the measurements was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and standard error of measurement (SEM). The diagnostic accuracy of the test was investigated by determining the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of the test against a 'gold standard' reference. The assessor remained 'blinded' to data input and the measurements were staggered to reduce examiner bias. Results. The pectoralis minor length test was found to have excellent intra-rater reliability for dominant and non-dominant side of the subjects without symptoms, and for the painfree and painful side of the subjects with symptoms. The values calculated for the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios suggest this test performed in the manner investigated in this study and recommended in the literature, lacks diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion. The findings of this study suggest that although the pectoralis minor length test demonstrates acceptable clinical reliability, its lack of specificity suggests that clinicians using this test to inform the clinical reasoning process with regard treatment planning must do so with caution. Trial registration. National Research Register: N0060148286.Peer reviewe

Sex-Specific Immunization for Sexually Transmitted Infections Such as Human Papillomavirus: Insights from Mathematical Models

Johannes Bogaards and colleagues use mathematical models to investigate whether vaccinating females only, males only, or both sexes is the best way to achieve the most effective reduction in the population prevalence of sexually-transmitted infection

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis

De novo and rare inherited mutations implicate the transcriptional coregulator TCF20/SPBP in autism spectrum disorder

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are common and have a strong genetic basis, yet the cause of ∼70-80% ASDs remains unknown. By clinical cytogenetic testing, we identified a family in which two brothers had ASD, mild intellectual disability and a chromosome 22 pericentric inversion, not detected in either parent, indicating de novo mutation with parental germinal mosaicism. We hypothesised that the rearrangement was causative of their ASD and localised the chromosome 22 breakpoints. METHODS: The rearrangement was characterised using fluorescence in situ hybridisation, Southern blotting, inverse PCR and dideoxy-sequencing. Open reading frames and intron/exon boundaries of the two physically disrupted genes identified, TCF20 and TNRC6B, were sequenced in 342 families (260 multiplex and 82 simplex) ascertained by the International Molecular Genetic Study of Autism Consortium (IMGSAC). RESULTS: IMGSAC family screening identified a de novo missense mutation of TCF20 in a single case and significant association of a different missense mutation of TCF20 with ASD in three further families. Through exome sequencing in another project, we independently identified a de novo frameshifting mutation of TCF20 in a woman with ASD and moderate intellectual disability. We did not identify a significant association of TNRC6B mutations with ASD. CONCLUSIONS: TCF20 encodes a transcriptional coregulator (also termed SPBP) that is structurally and functionally related to RAI1, the critical dosage-sensitive protein implicated in the behavioural phenotypes of the Smith-Magenis and Potocki-Lupski 17p11.2 deletion/duplication syndromes, in which ASD is frequently diagnosed. This study provides the first evidence that mutations in TCF20 are also associated with ASD