A combined estimator using TEC and b-value for large earthquake prediction

[EN] Ionospheric anomalies have been shown to occur a few days before several large earthquakes. The published works normally address examples limited in time (a single event or few of them) or space (a particular geographic area), so that a clear method based on these anomalies which consistently yields the place and magnitude of the forthcoming earthquake, anytime and anywhere on earth, has not been presented so far. The current research is aimed at prediction of large earthquakes, that is with magnitude M-w 7 or higher. It uses as data bank all significant earthquakes occurred worldwide in the period from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2018. The first purpose of the research is to improve the use of ionospheric anomalies in the form of TEC grids for earthquake prediction. A space-time TEC variation estimator especially designed for earthquake prediction will show the advantages with respect to the use of simple TEC values. 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Evaluation of alternative respiratory syndromes for specific syndromic surveillance of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus: a time series analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Syndromic surveillance is increasingly being evaluated for its potential for early warning of increased disease activity in the population. However, interpretation is hampered by the difficulty of attributing a causative pathogen. We described the temporal relationship between laboratory counts of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detection and alternative groupings of Emergency Department (ED) respiratory diagnoses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ED and laboratory data were obtained for the south-eastern area of Sydney, NSW for the period 1 June 2001 - 1 December 2006. Counts of ED visits and laboratory confirmed positive RSV and influenza cases were aggregated by week. Semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) were used to determine the association between the incidence of RSV and influenza and the incidence of respiratory syndrome ED presentations while controlling for temporal confounders.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For every additional RSV laboratory count, ED diagnoses of bronchiolitis increased by 3.1% (95%CI: 2.7%-3.5%) in the same week. For every additional influenza laboratory count, ED diagnoses of influenza-like illness increased by 4.7% (95%CI: 4.2%-5.2%) one week earlier.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study, large increases in ED diagnoses of bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness were independent and proxy indicators for RSV and influenza activity, respectively.</p

The learners' perspective on internal medicine ward rounds: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ward rounds form an integral part of Internal Medicine teaching. This study aimed to determine the trainees' opinions regarding various aspects of their ward rounds, including how well they cover their learning needs, how they would like the rounds to be conducted, and differences of opinion between medical students and postgraduates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was conducted on a total of 134 trainees in Internal Medicine, comprising medical students, interns, residents and fellows, who were asked to fill in a structured, self-designed questionnaire. Most of the responses required a rating on a scale of 1-5 (1 being highly unsatisfactory and 5 being highly satisfactory).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Teaching of clinical skills and bedside teaching received the lowest overall mean score (Mean ± SD 2.48 ± 1.02 and 2.49 ± 1.12 respectively). They were rated much lower by postgraduates as compared to students (p < 0.001). All respondents felt that management of patients was the aspect best covered by the current ward rounds (Mean ± SD 3.71 ± 0.72). For their desired ward rounds, management of patients received the highest score (Mean ± SD 4.64 ± 0.55), followed by bedside examinations (Mean ± SD 4.60 ± 0.61) and clinical skills teaching (Mean ± SD 4.50 ± 0.68). The postgraduates desired a lot more focus on communication skills, counselling and medical ethics as compared to students, whose primary focus was teaching of bedside examination and management. A majority of the respondents (87%) preferred bedside rounds over conference room rounds. Even though the duration of rounds was found to be adequate, a majority of the trainees (68%) felt there was a lack of individual attention during ward rounds.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study highlights important areas where ward rounds need improvement in order to maximize their benefit to the learners. There is a need to modify the current state of ward rounds in order to address the needs and expectations of trainees.</p

A Decline in the Incidence of Invasive Non-Typhoidal Salmonella Infection in the Gambia Temporally Associated with a Decline in Malaria Infection

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a risk factor for invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) infection in children. In the last 10 years, indices of malaria infection in The Gambia have fallen substantially. METHODS: We compared temporal trends of childhood malaria and NTS infection in two Gambian locations. In Fajara, on the coast, the incidence of NTS infection at three time points between 1979 and 2005 was compared to the percentage of malaria positive outpatient thick blood films and the percentage of admissions associated with malaria over time. In Basse, in the eastern part of the country, the incidence of NTS infection at three time points between 1989 and 2008 was compared to the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia at four time points between 1992 and 2008. RESULTS: The estimated incidence of NTS infection in Fajara fell from 60 (1979-1984) to 10 (2003-05) cases per 100,000 person years. The proportion of outpatients in Fajara with suspected malaria who were parasitaemic fell from 33% (1999) to 6% (2007) while the proportion of admissions associated with malaria fell from 14.5% (1999) to 5% (2007). In Basse, the estimated incidence of NTS infection fell from 105 (1989-1991) to 29 (2008) cases per 100,000 person years while the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia fell from 45% (1992) to 10% (2008). The incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia in Fajara and Basse did not fall over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: These data support an association between malaria and NTS infection. Reductions in malaria infection may be associated with reduced rates of invasive childhood NTS infection

Neuroadaptations in Human Chronic Alcoholics: Dysregulation of the NF-κB System

Anna Ökvist is with Karolinska Institute, Sofia Johansson is with Karolinska Institute, Alexander Kuzmin is with Karolinska Institute, Igor Bazov is with Karolinska Institute, Roxana Merino-Martinez is with Karolinska Institute, Igor Ponomarev is with UT Austin, R. Dayne Mayfield is with UT Austin, R. Adron Harris is with UT Austin, Donna Sheedy is with University of Sydney, Therese Garrick is with University of Sydney, Clive Harper is with University of Sydney, Yasmin L. Hurd is with Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Lars Terenius is with Karolinska Institute, Tomas J. Ekström is with Karolinska Institute, Georgy Bakalkin is with Karolinska Institute and Uppsala University, Tatjana Yakovleva is with Karolinska Institute and Uppsala University.Background -- Alcohol dependence and associated cognitive impairments apparently result from neuroadaptations to chronic alcohol consumption involving changes in expression of multiple genes. Here we investigated whether transcription factors of Nuclear Factor-kappaB (NF-κB) family, controlling neuronal plasticity and neurodegeneration, are involved in these adaptations in human chronic alcoholics. Methods and Findings -- Analysis of DNA-binding of NF-κB (p65/p50 heterodimer) and the p50 homodimer as well as NF-κB proteins and mRNAs was performed in postmortem human brain samples from 15 chronic alcoholics and 15 control subjects. The prefrontal cortex involved in alcohol dependence and cognition was analyzed and the motor cortex was studied for comparison. The p50 homodimer was identified as dominant κB binding factor in analyzed tissues. NF-κB and p50 homodimer DNA-binding was downregulated, levels of p65 (RELA) mRNA were attenuated, and the stoichiometry of p65/p50 proteins and respective mRNAs was altered in the prefrontal cortex of alcoholics. Comparison of a number of p50 homodimer/NF-κB target DNA sites, κB elements in 479 genes, down- or upregulated in alcoholics demonstrated that genes with κB elements were generally upregulated in alcoholics. No significant differences between alcoholics and controls were observed in the motor cortex. Conclusions -- We suggest that cycles of alcohol intoxication/withdrawal, which may initially activate NF-κB, when repeated over years downregulate RELA expression and NF-κB and p50 homodimer DNA-binding. Downregulation of the dominant p50 homodimer, a potent inhibitor of gene transcription apparently resulted in derepression of κB regulated genes. Alterations in expression of p50 homodimer/NF-κB regulated genes may contribute to neuroplastic adaptation underlying alcoholism.This work was supported by grants from the AFA Forsäkring to AK, YLH, TJE and GB, the Research Foundation of the Swedish Alcohol Retail Monopoly (SRA) and Karolinska Institutet to AK, TJE and GB, and the Swedish Science Research Council and the Swedish National Drug Policy Coordinator to GB. The Australian Brain Donor Programs NSW Tissue Resource Centre was supported by The University of Sydney, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Neuroscience Institute of Schizophrenia and Allied Disorders, National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and NSW Department of Health.Waggoner Center for Alcohol and Addiction Researc

Geography of non-melanoma skin cancer and ecological associations with environmental risk factors in England.

This is the author's peer reviewed version of the article. Please cite the published, final version which is available via the DOI link in this record.This study investigates the geography of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in England, and ecological associations with three widespread environmental hazards: radon, arsenic and ultraviolet radiation from the sun.European Regional Development FundEuropean Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scill

Medication Persistence Rates and Factors Associated with Persistence in Patients Following Stroke: A Cohort Study

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Snail1 factor behaves as a therapeutic target in renal fibrosis.

Kidney fibrosis is a devastating disease that leads to organ failure, and no specific treatment is available to preserve organ function. In fibrosis, myofibroblasts accumulate in the interstitium leading to massive deposition of extracellular matrix and organ disfunction. The origin of myofibroblasts is multiple and the contribution of renal epithelial cells after undergoing epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is still debated. In a model unable to reactivate the EMT inducer Snail1 upon damage, we show that Snail1 is required in renal epithelial cells for the development of fibrosis. Damage-mediated Snail1 reactivation induces a partial EMT that relays fibrotic and inflammatory signals to the interstitium through the activation of TGF-β and NF-B pathways. Snail1-induced fibrosis can be reverted in vivo and inhibiting Snail1 in a model of obstructive nephropathy highly ameliorates fibrosis. These results reconcile conflicting data on the role of EMT in renal fibrosis and provide avenues for the design of antifibrotic therapies.pre-print8435 K

Government Influence on Patient Organizations

Patient organizations increasingly play an important role in health care decision-making in Western countries. The Netherlands is one of the countries where this trend has gone furthest. In the literature some problems are identified, such as instrumental use of patient organizations by care providers, health insurers and the pharmaceutical industry. To strengthen the position of patient organizations government funding is often recommended as a solution. In this paper we analyze the ties between Dutch government and Dutch patient organizations to learn more about the effects of such a relationship between government and this part of civil society. Our study is based on official government documents and existing empirical research on patient organizations. We found that government influence on patient organizations has become quite substantial with government influencing the organizational structure of patient organizations, the activities these organizations perform and even their ideology. Financing patient organizations offers the government an important means to hold them accountable. Although the ties between patient organizations and the government enable the former to play a role that can be valued as positive by both parties, we argue that they raise problems as well which warrant a discussion on how much government influence on civil society is acceptable