Land change dynamics in the Brazilian Cerrado: the interaction of biofuels, markets, and biodiversity

Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of GeographyMarcellus M. CaldasBiofuel ethanol has been proposed as the most viable solution to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the transportation sector; however, the impact of such production on the environment is not completely known. Environmental impacts are of more concern when ethanol production occurs in areas of high biodiversity value such as the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna). The Cerrado is a global biodiversity hotspot and an important breadbasket—at the same time, it is on a path to becoming the major sugarcane ethanol-producing region in Brazil. The main goal of this dissertation is to examine the impacts of sugarcane expansion on farmers’ land use decision processes in the Cerrado and to consider its consequences on biodiversity and the impacts of climate change. In the following chapters, land change dynamics are investigated using a combination of theory and methods from geography, GIScience, economics, and ecology. Chapter 2 presents an examination of the drivers for the sugarcane expansion. The findings suggest that the Cerrado attracted mills because of the good agricultural conditions, affordable land prices, and favorable state-level fiscal incentive policies, while factors that have prevented traditional sugarcane-producing regions from meeting the increasing demand for ethanol. Chapter 3 develops a procedure to identify intensification and extensification responses at the field level. The main finding is that extensification is the main response. Additionally, this response has a higher probability of occurrence the farther an area is from a mill. Chapter 4 applies the partial adjustment framework to understand farmers’ land use decisions regarding sugarcane production. Estimates found that price of cattle have the largest cross-price elasticity with sugarcane acreage. In addition, the results suggest that acreage of sugarcane and soybean double-crop are positively correlated. Chapter 5 focuses on the impacts of climate change on land suitability for sugarcane and amphibian species. The findings show that land suitability for sugarcane is vulnerable to climate change and that the Brazilian zoning policy for sugarcane is not addressing this issue. Additionally, amphibians are affected by climate change and conflict with areas suitable for sugarcane in climate change scenarios

Examining the relationship between vertical coordination strategies and technical efficiency: Evidence from the Brazilian ethanol industry

The sugarcane industry in Brazil, one of the world's leading producers of ethanol and sugar, is undergoing significant changes driven by geographic expansion and technological innovations. These changes are forcing sugarcane producers and processors, to re-evaluate their vertical coordination and growth strategies. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between the vertical coordination strategies at the production-processing interface of the Brazilian ethanol supply chain and the technical efficiency of the mills. It utilizes data envelopment analysis and a Tobit censored model in combination with unique data on 204 mills that account for around half of Brazil's sugar and ethanol production. Results indicate that vertical integration and the location of the mill have a statistically significant impact on efficiency. The findings show that the technical efficiency is not the main driver of vertical integration implying that such decisions are primarily motivated by strategic considerations. The mills are likely to forgo gains in technical efficiency in exchange for improving their strategic position through vertical integration. These findings shed light on the underlying motivation for the observed level of vertical integration that accompanies the expansion of the Brazilian sugarcane industry. [EconLit citations: L22, Q12, Q16]

Modeling Profitability in the Jamaican Coffee Industry

It is well known that producers of agricultural products do not able to capture most of the value from what they grow. As such, it is important for producers to be attuned to the various factors that impact the viability of their products. One such potential avenue for coffee producers is developing a strong awareness of profitability across their respective geographic regions. This research presents a fine-scale geospatial profitability model for coffee production using the test case of the Jamaican Coffee Industry, a sector which once guaranteed profitability but now presents variable (often losing) returns for many producers, this research presents a cost-surface model for coffee production in the island of Jamaica. Results indicated large scale profitability in the 2016–2017 coffee year but limited profitability in the 2019–2019 coffee year, highlighting the important role of revenue fluctuation in island-wide profitability. Results underscore importance of scenario planning in the coffee production cycle. By understanding the spatial properties of profitability producers will obtain better decision-making insight for production and management decisions in the coffee industry around the world. The geospatial profitability model establishes a baseline approach that can be accessed by industry stakeholders of varying technological capacities

AI for Social Good Education at Hispanic Serving Institutions

This project aims to broaden AI education by developing and studying the efficacy of innovative learning practices and resources for AI education for social good. We have developed three AI learning modules for students to: 1) identify social issues that align with the SDGs in their community (e.g., poverty, hunger, quality education); 2) learn AI through hands-on labs and business applications; and 3) create AI-powered solutions in teams to address social is-sues they have identified. Student teams are expected to situate AI learning in their communities and contribute to their communities. Students then use the modules to en-gage in an interdisciplinary approach, facilitating AI learn-ing for social good in informational sciences and technology, geography, and computer science at three CSU HSIs (San Jose State University, Cal Poly Pomona and CSU San Bernardino). Finally, we aim to evaluate the efficacy and impact of the proposed AI teaching methods and activities in terms of learning outcomes, student experience, student engagement, and equity

Does Vertical Integration Increase Efficiency? A Look at Ethanol Plants in the Center-South of Brazil

Brazil is one of the world’s leading ethanol, sugar and sugarcane producer. Sugarcane is produced by farmers (40%) and ethanol plants (60%). Sugarcane production is limited to a certain radius of the mill to minimize transportation costs and avoid sugarcane quality losses. The distance and harvest timeline limitations aligned with the desire to guarantee sugarcane supply or to create barrier of entry to competing firms make vertical integration, a common practice for mills in Brazil. This study estimates the impact of upstream vertical integration on output-oriented technical efficiency using an output-oriented DEA analysis and a tobit censured model. Inputs considered in the model are the amount of crushed sugarcane and the land used, while the quantities of ethanol and sugar produced are the outputs. The sample consists of 154 mills located in the Center-South area of Brazil. The tobit censured model controlled for the percentage of crushed sugarcane produced on lands owned or rented by mills, the type of mill (i.e. mixed mill or one that produces only sugar or only ethanol), if the mill was in the of Sao Paulo, if it was in the Center-West region and its daily sugarcane crushing capacity. An increase in the percentage of the vertical integration decreases output-oriented technical efficiency by 0.0001 at a 10% level of statistical significance. The continued existence of vertical integration, aligned with the results from this study, implies that mills are adopting this strategy for reasons other than gains in efficiency. Mills may be willing to forgo marginal gains in efficiency, from procuring sugarcane from independent producers, to avoid transaction costs. The Brazilian government may be able to reduce vertical integration by subsidizing sugarcane producers, applying contract enforcement measures and, providing farmers with adequate infrastructure (e.g. paved roads). These measures could increase the number of sugarcane suppliers and eliminate barriers to entry created by mills

Trust me! Examining the contractual relationships between sugarcane producers and mills in the Cerrado

An increase in biofuel demand aligned with public policies has fueled the expansion of sugarcane into Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul in the Cerrado. Geographic, temporal and physical asset specificities delimit the area from which mills can procure sugarcane, making sugarcane producers and mills dependent on each other. Thus contracting is a common practice in sugarcane production in the Cerrado and its success directly impacts the sustainability of the ethanol expansion. We fill a gap in the literature on producers’ contract acceptance and trust by determining the factors that affect contract perception and trust with contractors. Using primary data from the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul we estimate ordered logit models using producer’s perceptions, their characteristics and that of their enterprise. Profits and experience are important factors for a producer when considering a contract. Communication, transparency and other farmer’s perception of a mill were important in building trust. Mills wanting to improve their chances of signing a contract should focus on more participation in the community and on better communication with farmers.O aumento na demanda por biocombustíveis aliado às políticas públicas têm promovido a expansão da cana no Cerrado, especialmente em Goiás e Mato Grosso do Sul. As especificidades geográficas, temporais e físicas dos ativos limita a área de onde advem a cana, tornando usinas e produtores dependents uns nos outros. Com isso, contratos são uma prática comum no setor sucroalcoleiro e seu sucesso tem consequências diretas para a sustentabilidade da expansão da cana no Cerrado. Preenchemos, neste estudo, a lacuna na literatura sobre a aceitação de contratos e confiança, determinando os fatores que alteram a percepção do produtor quanto ao contrato e quanto à confiança na usina. Usando dados primários de Goiás e Mato Grosso do Sul estimamos modelos logit ordenados usando as percepções e características dos produtores e de seus estabelecimentos. Lucro e tradição foram identificados como importantes para a aceitação de um contrato. Comunicação, transparência e a opinião demais produtores foram importantes fatores no desenvolvimento de confiança na usina. Logo, usinas que querem melhorar suas a aceitação de seus contratos devem se esforçar em participar mais na comunidade local e na melhoria da comunicação com os fazendeiros

Dinâmicas espaciais: um novo corredor da produção leiteira no Paraná

Brazil is the fourth largest milk producer in the world, and Paraná state is the third largest producer in the country. Milk production plays an important socioeconomic role in Paraná state, and since the 1990s, institutional and market changes have influenced Paraná’s milk production. Given this context, this study searches to analyze the spatial dynamics of dairy activity in Paraná state. Specifically, it seeks to identify areas of greater expansion and contraction in dairy activities, and discuss possible structural and socioeconomic consequences in those regions. Data concerning productive and economic variables of the 399 municipalities in Paraná state were used to generate an indicator of dairy activity through Common Factor Analysis. Cluster analysis allowed the formation of groups, according to municipalities’ importance in Paraná’s dairy activity. We conclude that since the 1990s, there has been displacement of dairy activity from the northern regions and toward the south. Dairy activity has started to occupy areas otherwise considered "agriculturally empty" and socioeconomically vulnerable. Those areas, along with traditional production regions, comprise a new "milk corridor" in Paraná. This may generate a set of socioeconomic benefits in the region. Important structural changes may occur along the dairy chain, and both public and private policies should be set to assure dairy chain competitiveness in Paraná state.O Brasil é o quarto maior produtor de leite no mundo e o Paraná, é o terceiro maior produtor brasileiro de leite. A produção de leite no Paraná desempenha importante função econômica e social. A partir da década de 90, alterações institucionais e de mercado, condicionaram mudanças significativas na produção de leite neste Estado. O objetivo foi analisar a dinâmica espacial da atividade leiteira paranaense. Buscou-se a identificação de regiões de maior concentração e retração da atividade e a indicação de consequências estruturais, econômicas e sociais nas novas regiões de produção. Foram coletadas variáveis produtivas e econômicas de 399 municípios paranaenses nos anos de 1990, 2000 e 2014. A partir destas, e das técnicas de Análise Fatorial Comum e clusters hierárquicos, os municípios foram classificados como de baixa, média e alta importância na atividade leiteira. Os grupos foram plotados no mapa do Paraná. A partir da década de 90, houve deslocamento da atividade leiteira de regiões ao norte do estado, em direção ao sul. A atividade leiteira passou a ocupar áreas consideradas como “vazios da agropecuária” e caracterizadas pela fragilidade socioeconômica e passaram a definir um novo “corredor da produção leiteira” no Paraná. Como resultado, benefícios sociais e econômicas poderão ser gerados. Mudanças estruturais importantes poderão ocorrer em toda cadeia produtiva do leite paranaense, com impactos diretos na competitividade deste setor