Three horizons:A pathways practice for transformation

Global environmental change requires responses that involve marked or qualitative changes in individuals, institutions, societies, and cultures. Yet, while there has been considerable effort to develop theory about such processes, there has been limited research on practices for facilitating transformative change. We present a novel pathways approach called Three Horizons that helps participants work with complex and intractable problems and uncertain futures. The approach is important for helping groups work with uncertainty while also generating agency in ways not always addressed by existing futures approaches. We explain how the approach uses a simple framework for structured and guided dialogue around different patterns of change by using examples. We then discuss some of the key characteristics of the practice that facilitators and participants have found to be useful. This includes (1) providing a simple structure for working with complexity, (2) helping develop future consciousness (an awareness of the future potential in the present moment), (3) helping distinguish between incremental and transformative change, (4) making explicit the processes of power and patterns of renewal, (5) enabling the exploration of how to manage transitions, and (6) providing a framework for dialogue among actors with different mindsets. The complementarity of Three Horizons to other approaches (e.g., scenario planning, dilemma thinking) is then discussed. Overall, we highlight that there is a need for much greater attention to researching practices of transformation in ways that bridge different kinds of knowledge, including episteme and phronesis. Achieving this will itself require changes to contemporary systems of knowledge production. The practice of Three Horizons could be a useful way to explore how such transformations in knowledge production and use could be achieved

Impact of Incremental Perfusion Loss on Oxygen Transport in a Capillary Network Mathematical Model.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify how incremental capillary perfusion loss, such as that seen in experimental models of sepsis, affects tissue oxygenation using a computation model of oxygen transport. METHODS: A computational model was applied to capillary networks with dimensions 84x168x342 (NI) and 70x157x268 (NII) μm, reconstructed in vivo from rat skeletal muscle. Functional capillary density (FCD) loss was applied incrementally up to ~40% and combined with high tissue oxygen consumption to simulate severe sepsis. RESULTS: A loss of ~40% FCD loss decreased median tissue PO2 to 22.9 and 20.1 mmHg in NI and NII compared to 28.1 and 27.5 mmHg under resting conditions. Increasing red blood cell supply rate (SR) to baseline levels returned tissue PO2 to within 5% of baseline. High consumption combined with a 40% FCD loss, resulted in tissue anoxia in both network volumes and median tissue PO2 of 11.5 and 8.9 mmHg in NI and NII respectively; median tissue PO2 was recovered to baseline levels by increasing total SR 3 - 4 fold. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest a substantial increase in total SR is required in order to compensate for impaired oxygen delivery as a result of loss of capillary perfusion and increased oxygen consumption during sepsis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Ricci-corrected derivatives and invariant differential operators

We introduce the notion of Ricci-corrected differentiation in parabolic geometry, which is a modification of covariant differentiation with better transformation properties. This enables us to simplify the explicit formulae for standard invariant operators given in work of Cap, Slovak and Soucek, and at the same time extend these formulae from the context of AHS structures (which include conformal and projective structures) to the more general class of all parabolic structures (including CR structures).Comment: Substantially revised, shortened and simplified, with new treatment of Weyl structures; 24 page

A solid-phase extraction method for rapidly determining the adsorption coefficient of pharmaceuticals in sewage sludge

AbstractThe partitioning of pharmaceuticals in the environment can be assessed by measuring their adsorption coefficients (Kd) between aqueous and solid phases. Measuring this coefficient in sewage sludge gives an indication of their partitioning behaviour in a wastewater treatment plant and hence contributes to an understanding of their subsequent fate. The regulatory approved method for measuring Kd in sewage sludge is the US Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Prevention, Pesticides and Toxic Substances (OPPTS) guideline 835.1110, which is labour intensive and time consuming. We describe an alternative method for measuring the Kd of pharmaceuticals in sewage sludge using a modified solid-phase extraction (SPE) technique. SPE cartridges were packed at different sludge/PTFE ratios (0.4, 6.0, 24.0 and 40.0% w/w sludge) and eluted with phosphate buffer at pH 7.4. The approach was tested initially using three pharmaceuticals (clofibric acid, diclofenac and oxytetracycline) that covered a range of Kd values. Subsequently, the sorption behaviour of ten further pharmaceuticals with varying physico-chemical properties was evaluated. Results from the SPE method were comparable to those of the OPPTS test, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the two approaches. SPE cartridges packed with sludge and PTFE were stable for up to one year; use within one month reduced variability in measurements (to a maximum of 0.6 log units). The SPE method is low-cost, easy to use and enables the rapid measurement of Kd values for a large number of chemicals. It can be used as an alternative to the more laborious full OPPTS test in environmental fate studies and risk assessments

A tale of two fishing boat graveyards

The SCHARP Project is funded by the Heritage Lottery Fund, Historic Environment Scotland, and the Crown Estate and is supported by the University of St Andrews.Two survey and research projects by SCAPE, NAS, the North of Scotland Archaeological Society, Findhorn Heritage, and volunteers at Loch Fleet, East Sutherland and Findhorn Bay, Moray, have documented two early 20th‐century boat graveyards. These encompass the remains of the local herring fleets that were largely composed of the mighty Zulu herring drifters, once ubiquitous but now very rare in the archaeological record. Survey and research have shown how these sites tell the story of the decline of the local fisheries, illustrate the development of the national industry, and give insight into the responses of these fishing communities in this changing world.PostprintPeer reviewe

Inequalities in the dental health needs and access to dental services among looked after children in Scotland: a population data linkage study

Background: There is limited evidence on the health needs and service access among children and young people who are looked after by the state. The aim of this study was to compare dental treatment needs and access to dental services (as an exemplar of wider health and well-being concerns) among children and young people who are looked after with the general child population. Methods: Population data linkage study utilising national datasets of social work referrals for ‘looked after’ placements, the Scottish census of children in local authority schools, and national health service’s dental health and service datasets. Results: 633 204 children in publicly funded schools in Scotland during the academic year 2011/2012, of whom 10 927 (1.7%) were known to be looked after during that or a previous year (from 2007–2008). The children in the looked after children (LAC) group were more likely to have urgent dental treatment need at 5 years of age: 23%vs10% (n=209/16533), adjusted (for age, sex and area socioeconomic deprivation) OR 2.65 (95% CI 2.30 to 3.05); were less likely to attend a dentist regularly: 51%vs63% (n=5519/388934), 0.55 (0.53 to 0.58) and more likely to have teeth extracted under general anaesthesia: 9%vs5% (n=967/30253), 1.91 (1.78 to 2.04). Conclusions: LAC are more likely to have dental treatment needs and less likely to access dental services even when accounting for sociodemographic factors. Greater efforts are required to integrate child social and healthcare for LAC and to develop preventive care pathways on entering and throughout their time in the care system

Influence of oxidative stress, diaphragm fatigue, and inspiratory muscle training on the plasma cytokine response to maximum sustainable voluntary ventilation

The influence of oxidative stress, diaphragm fatigue, and inspiratory muscle training (IMT) on the cytokine response to maximum sustainable voluntary ventilation (MSVV) is unknown. Twelve healthy males were divided equally into an IMT or placebo (PLA) group, and before and after a 6-wk intervention they undertook, on separate days, 1h of (1) passive rest and (2) MSVV, whereby participants undertook volitional hyperpnea at rest that mimicked the breathing and respiratory muscle recruitment patterns commensurate with heavy cycling exercise. Plasma cytokines remained unchanged during passive rest. There was a main effect of time (P < 0.01) for plasma interleukin-1 (IL-1) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations and a strong trend (P = 0.067) for plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist concentration during MSVV. Plasma IL-6 concentration was reduced after IMT by 27 + 18% (main effect of intervention, P = 0.029), whereas there was no change after PLA (P = 0.753). There was no increase in a systemic marker of oxidative stress [DNA damage in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC)], and diaphragm fatigue was not related to the increases in plasma IL-1 and IL-6 concentrations. A dose-response relationship was observed between respiratory muscle work and minute ventilation and increases in plasma IL-6 concentration. In conclusion, increases in plasma IL-1 and IL-6 concentrations during MSVV were not due to diaphragm fatigue or DNA damage in PBMC. Increases in plasma IL-6 concentration during MSVV are attenuated following IMT, and the plasma IL-6 response is dependent upon the level of respiratory muscle work and minute ventilation

Comparable reductions in hyperpnoea-induced bronchoconstriction and markers of airway inflammation after supplementation with 6·2 and 3·1 g/d of long-chain n-3 PUFA in adults with asthma

Although high dose n-3 PUFA supplementation reduces exercise- and hyperpnoea-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB/HIB), there are concurrent issues with cost, compliance and gastrointestinal discomfort. It is thus pertinent to establish the efficacy of lower n-3 PUFA doses. Eight male adults with asthma and HIB and eight controls without asthma were randomly supplemented with two n-3 PUFA doses (6·2 g/d (3·7 g EPA and 2·5 g DHA) and 3·1 g/d (1·8 g EPA and 1·3 g DHA)) and a placebo, each for 21 d followed by 14 d washout. A eucapnic voluntary hyperpnoea (EVH) challenge was performed before and after treatments. Outcome measures remained unchanged in the control group. In the HIB group, the peak fall in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) after EVH at day 0 (−1005 (sd 520) ml, −30 (sd 18) %) was unchanged after placebo. The peak fall in FEV1 was similarly reduced from day 0 to day 21 of 6·2 g/d n-3 PUFA (−1000 (sd 460) ml, −29 (sd 17) % v. −690 (sd 460) ml, −20 (sd 15) %) and 3·1 g/d n-3 PUFA (−970 (sd 480) ml, −28 (sd 18) % v. −700 (sd 420) ml, −21 (sd 15) %) (P<0·001). Baseline fraction of exhaled nitric oxide was reduced by 24 % (P=0·020) and 31 % (P=0·018) after 6·2 and 3·1 g/d n-3 PUFA, respectively. Peak increases in 9α, 11β PGF2 after EVH were reduced by 65 % (P=0·009) and 56 % (P=0·041) after 6·2 and 3·1 g/d n-3 PUFA, respectively. In conclusion, 3·1 g/d n-3 PUFA supplementation attenuated HIB and markers of airway inflammation to a similar extent as a higher dose. Lower doses of n-3 PUFA thus represent a potentially beneficial adjunct treatment for adults with asthma and EIB

A prebiotic galactooligosaccharide mixture reduces severity of hyperpnoea-induced bronchoconstriction and markers of airway inflammation

Gut microbes have a substantial influence on systemic immune function and allergic sensitisation. Manipulation of the gut microbiome through prebiotics may provide a potential strategy to influence the immunopathology of asthma. This study investigated the effects of prebiotic Bimuno-galactooligosaccharide (B-GOS) supplementation on hyperpnoea-induced bronchoconstriction (HIB), a surrogate for exercise-induced bronchoconstriction, and airway inflammation. A total of ten adults with asthma and HIB and eight controls without asthma were randomised to receive 5·5 g/d of either B-GOS or placebo for 3 weeks separated by a 2-week washout period. The peak fall in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) following eucapnic voluntary hyperpnoea (EVH) defined HIB severity. Markers of airway inflammation were measured at baseline and after EVH. Pulmonary function remained unchanged in the control group. In the HIB group, the peak post-EVH fall in FEV1 at day 0 (−880 (SD 480) ml) was unchanged after placebo, but was attenuated by 40 % (−940 (SD 460) v. −570 (SD 310) ml, P= 0·004) after B-GOS. In the HIB group, B-GOS reduced baseline chemokine CC ligand 17 (399 (SD 140) v. 323 (SD 144) pg/ml, P =0·005) and TNF-α (2·68 (SD 0·98) v. 2·18 (SD 0·59) pg/ml, P= 0·040) and abolished the EVH-induced 29 % increase in TNF-α. Baseline C-reactive protein was reduced following B-GOS in HIB (2·46 (SD 1·14) v. 1·44 (SD 0·41) mg/l, P=0·015) and control (2·16 (SD 1·02) v. 1·47 (SD 0·33) mg/l, P=0·050) groups. Chemokine CC ligand 11 and fraction of exhaled nitric oxide remained unchanged. B-GOS supplementation attenuated airway hyper-responsiveness with concomitant reductions in markers of airway inflammation associated with HIB

Effects of prior upper body exercise on the 3-min all-out cycling test in men

Introduction: Prior upper body exercise reduces the curvature constant (W′) of the hyperbolic power-duration relationship without affecting critical power. This study tested the hypothesis that prior upper body exercise reduces the work done over the end-test power (WEP; analogue of W′) during a 3-min all-out cycling test (3MT) without affecting the end-test power (EP; analogue of critical power). Methods: Ten endurance-trained men (V˙O2max = 62 ± 5 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1) performed a 3MT without (CYC) and with (ARM-CYC) prior severe-intensity, intermittent upper body exercise. EP was calculated as the mean power output over the last 30-s of the 3MT, whereas WEP was calculated as the power-time integral above EP. Results: At the start of the 3MT, plasma [La-] (1.8 ± 0.4 vs. 14.1 ± 3.4 mmol·L-1) and [H+] (42.8 ± 3.1 vs. 58.6 ± 5.5 nmol·L-1) were higher, whereas the strong ion difference ([SID]) (41.4 ± 2.2 vs. 30.9 ± 4.6 mmol·L-1) and [HCO3-] (27.0 ± 1.9 vs. 16.9 ± 3.2 mmol·L-1) were lower, during ARM-CYC than CYC (P < 0.010). EP was 12% lower during the 3MT of ARM-CYC (298 ± 52 W) than CYC (338 ± 60 W) (P < 0.001), whereas WEP was not different (CYC: 12.8 ± 3.3 kJ vs. ARM-CYC: 13.5 ± 4.1 kJ, P = 0.312). EP in CYC was positively correlated with the peak [H+] (r = 0.78, P = 0008), and negatively correlated with the lowest [HCO3-] (r = -0.74, P = 0.015). Conclusion: These results suggest that EP during a 3MT in endurance-trained men is sensitive to fatigue-related ionic perturbation