Long-Term Forecasting of Strong Earthquakes in North America, South America, Japan, Southern China and Northern India With Machine Learning

Strong earthquakes (magnitude ≥7) occur worldwide affecting different cities and countries while causing great human, ecological and economic losses. The ability to forecast strong earthquakes on the long-term basis is essential to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities of people living in highly active seismic areas. We have studied seismic activities in North America, South America, Japan, Southern China and Northern India in search for patterns in strong earthquakes on each of these active seismic zones between 1900 and 2021 with the powerful mathematical tool of wavelet transform. We found that the primary seismic activity patterns for M ≥ 7 earthquakes are 55, 3.7, 7.7, and 8.6 years, for seismic zones of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, southwestern Mexico, South American, and Southern China-Northern India, respectively. In the case of Japan, the most important seismic pattern for earthquakes with magnitude 7 ≤ M (Formula presented.) 8 is 4.1 years and for strong earthquakes with M ≥ 8, it is 40 years. Every seismic pattern obtained clusters the earthquakes in historical intervals/episodes with and without strong earthquakes in the individually analyzed seismic zones. We want to clarify that the intervals where no strong earthquakes do not imply the total absence of seismic activity because earthquakes can occur with lesser magnitude within this same interval. From the information and pattern we obtained from the wavelet analyses, we created a probabilistic, long-term earthquake prediction model for each seismic zone using the Bayesian Machine Learning method. We propose that the periods of occurrence of earthquakes in each seismic zone analyzed could be interpreted as the period in which the stress builds up on different planes of a fault, until this energy releases through the rupture along faults and fractures near the plate tectonic boundaries. Then a series of earthquakes can occur along the fault until the stress subsides and a new cycle begins. Our machine learning models predict a new period of strong earthquakes between 2040 ± 5 and 2057 ± 5, 2024 ± 1 and 2026 ± 1, 2026 ± 2 and 2031 ± 2, 2024 ± 2 and 2029 ± 2, and 2022 ± 1 and 2028 ± 2 for the five active seismic zones of United States, Mexico, South America, Japan, and Southern China and Northern India, respectively. In additon, our methodology can be applied in areas where moderate earthquakes occur, as for the case of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault (California, United States). Our methodology explains why a moderate earthquake could never occur in 1988 ± 5 as proposed and why the long-awaited Parkfield earthquake event occurred in 2004. Furthermore, our model predicts that possible seismic events may occur between 2019 and 2031, with a high probability of earthquake events at Parkfield around 2025 ± 2 years.Fil: Velasco Herrera, Victor Manuel. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Rossello, Eduardo Antonio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Geociencias Básicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Geociencias Básicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Orgeira, Maria Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Geociencias Básicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Geociencias Básicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Arioni, Lucas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Geociencias Básicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Geociencias Básicas, Aplicadas y Ambientales de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Soon, Willie. Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Velasco, Graciela. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Rosique de la Cruz, Laura. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Zúñiga, Emmanuel. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Vera, Carlos. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Méxic

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Quantifying Decay Due to Wet Atmospheric Deposition on Basalt

The study of building materials is important for a better conservation of built heritage. Worldwide, volcanic stones (including basalt, andesite and dacite) are among the least studied building materials. In this research, the decay of a red basalt due to wet atmospheric deposition was studied. Red basalt was exposed to artificial rain solutions, prepared from rain samples collected weekly from 2014–2019. In this research, the decay of stone-built heritage was indirectly studied emulating wet atmospheric accelerated weathering under three different volume weighted mean (VWM) compositions: global, acid and no-acid categories. Lixiviates were analyzed to better understand the deterioration mechanisms taking place inside the material. Decay was quantified as mass difference, water absorption capacity (WAC) and open porosity (OP) changes. Results show that the methodology used is suitable to research the decay of built heritage. The studied basalt is indeed prone to decay by wet atmospheric deposition. The main decay mechanisms are the washing of insoluble compounds, dissolution of minerals, salt crystallization and cation exchange. WAC and OP showed promising results of their appropriateness as monitoring variables of decay in situ. Acid conditions produce the most severe decay, but Ph effect is not as important as precipitation volume. Non-linear equations relating volume of precipitation with mass difference in red basalt are presented

Democracia y derechos humanos. Desafíos para la emancipación.

El libro tiene su origen en dos simposios del congreso internacional "Ciencia, tecnologías y culturas. Diálogos entre las disciplinas del conocimiento. Mirando al futuro de América Latina y el Caribe”, organizado por la Universidad de Santiago de Chile y celebrado del 30 de octubre al 2 de noviembre de 2008. En principio, en vista de la calidad de las ponencias del simposio “Democracia: ideas y prácticas”, se pensó en la posibilidad de editar su memoria. Sin embargo, cuando, conversando con Luisa Ripa, se habló de que el simposio, “Derechos humanos: en el cruce con la religión, la ética y la educación”, del cual ella fue la principal coordinadora, se sumara a nuestro esfuerzo, se consideró que se podía hacer algo más ambicioso de lo inicialmente previsto, no sólo en cuanto a la cantidad de los trabajos que esta obra podría incorporar, sino también en cuanto a su calidad, al contemplar la conveniencia, que después se hizo realidad, de que los trabajos presentados en los respectivos simposios fueran revisados por sus autores para poder ser publicados en esta obra. Además, cinco trabajos que no fueron expuestos en el mencionado congreso se incorporaron a la primera parte del libro. De esta manera, la idea de publicar una memoria con las ponencias de un simposio acabó dando lugar al libro que ahora presentamos al público, coeditado por la Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, la Universidad Nacional de Quilmes (Argentina) y El Colegio Mexiquens

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat