Demographic Profile of the Arab Region: Realizing the Demographic Dividend. E/ESCWA/SDD/2016/Technical Paper 3

The demographic transition is a change in patterns of population growth, from high rates of fertility and mortality to low rates of fertility and mortality. At an early stage, this transition leads to a shift in the population’s age composition whereby the number of working-age persons exceeds that of economically dependent persons. More resources are then available for investment in human capital (health and education), physical capital, and economic and social development. This phase is referred to as the demographic dividend or demographic window of opportunity. Its duration varies between countries, and it is affected by various factors such as the speed of fertility decline (the faster the better), and employment and productivity rates. Today, Arab countries are registering declining fertility rates and increases in life expectancy, although at different paces and starting from different levels. They are thus at different stages of the demographic transition and of the window of opportunity. This study, aimed at analysing the demographic changes that Arab countries are undergoing, classes them in four categories: (a) Arab least developed countries (LDCs): Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen; (b) Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates; (c) Mashreq countries: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, State of Palestine and Syrian Arab Republic; and (d) Maghreb countries: Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. It gives an overview of population dynamics and trends in the Arab region and assesses the window of opportunity during which each country could reap the benefits of its changing population structure. Reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend is not automatic and requires an enabling policy environment. The study thus presents four case studies on countries that benefitted from their demographic window of opportunity by implementing sound policies, making recommendations for the Arab region

Gender trouble and its impact on fertility intentions

It is often an underlying assumption that the new role of women and in general the trend toward a more egalitarian view of the concept of partnership is a main factor behind the low fertility rates in rich countries The aim of this paper is to test the consequences of gender (in)equity on the desire of women and men to have (further) children by using gender inequity as an important category within population science. In our assumptions we want to test whether an unequal distribution of household chores and childcare duties has a negative effect on the desire to have children. Another assumption examines the potential correlation that the perception of (in)equality of women and men in society or the acceptance of government measures to ensure equal rights might have with the desire to have children. The data are derived from the recent Austrian survey Population Policy Acceptance Survey. The assumptions are tested by means of logistic regression analysis. The results show that it is new men who are likely to express a wish for children, rather than those who live in traditional partnership models

Evolution in prostheses for sprinters with lower-limb amputation

Depuis une quinzaine d'années, les progrès techniques en appareillage ont été le facteur déterminant de la progression des performances des sportifs amputés de membre inférieur. Pour l'amputé tibial, la prothèse de course comprend un manchon gel et une emboîture solidarisés par un accrochage distal ou un vide virtuel. Par ses qualités dynamiques, le pied en fibre de carbone, garni de pointes, assure des performances remarquables. Pour l'amputé fémoral, équipé des mêmes pieds prothétiques, le genou est à biellettes et à contrôle des phases d'appui et pendulaire. Par rapport au coureur valide, le temps d'appui sur le membre appareillé est raccourci tandis que celui sur le membre sain est allongé. L'asymétrie du sprint de l'amputé tibial est discrète. C'est le travail des extenseurs de hanche qui est la principale compensation au déficit de propulsion dû à l'amputation. Chez l'amputé fémoral, l'absence de genou aggrave l'asymétrie. L'extension totale du genou prothétique, précoce en fin de phase oscillante et persistant pendant toute la phase d'appui, impose une compensation par une augmentation d'extension de la hanche controlatérale. Les transferts de charge de travail entre côté amputé et sain, par l'intermédiaire d'une hyperlordose lombaire, mettent en jeu le bassin, le tronc et les épaules. Les amputés sportifs font progresser la recherche en appareillage. Leurs orthoprothésistes acquièrent avec eux un savoir-faire dont bénéficient leurs patients non-sportifs.For about 15 years, technical advances in prosthetic treatment have been the main factor in the increased performance of athletes with lower-limb amputation. For trans-tibial amputation, the prosthesis for sprinting is composed of a gel liner and a socket joined by a locking or virtual vacuum liner. Because of these dynamic properties, the carbon prosthetic foot equipped with tacks ensures outstanding performance. For trans-femoral amputation, a hydraulic swing and a stance control unit are added to the same prosthesis. In comparison with the able-bodied runner, athletes with amputation have smaller loading times in the prosthetic limb and larger ones in the sound limb. The length of the energy-storing prosthetic foot is determined by the “up-on-the-toes” running gait. The sprinting gait with trans-tibial amputation is almost symmetrical. The hip extensor effort is the main compensation of propulsion reduction with lower-limb amputation. With trans-femoral amputation, the lack of knee increases the asymmetry. The total prosthetic knee extension (early in late-swing phase and lasting during total stance phase) compensates with extension of both hips, especially the opposite one. The amputation and sound limb load transfer with lumbar hyperlordosis concern the pelvis, trunk and shoulders. Because of athletes with amputation, research in prosthetic treatment has progressed. The development of orthotics and prostheses for such athletes has benefited non-athletes with amputation

Muon spin relaxation study of the magnetism in unilluminated Prussian Blue analogue photomagnets

We present longitudinal field muon spin relaxation ($\mu$SR) measurements in the unilluminated state of the photo-sensitive molecular magnetic Co-Fe Prussian blue analogues M$_{1-2x}$Co$_{1+x}$[Fe(CN)$_6$]$\cdot z$ H$_2$O, where M=K and Rb with $x=0.4$ and $\simeq 0.17$, respectively. These results are compared to those obtained in the $x=0.5$ stoichiometric limit, Co$_{1.5}$[Fe(CN)$_6$]$\cdot 6$ H$_2$O, which is not photo-sensitive. We find evidence for correlation between the range of magnetic ordering and the value of $x$ in the unilluminated state which can be explained using a site percolation model.Comment: 7 pages, 12 figure

PHARAO Laser Source Flight Model: Design and Performances

In this paper, we describe the design and the main performances of the PHARAO laser source flight model. PHARAO is a laser cooled cesium clock specially designed for operation in space and the laser source is one of the main sub-systems. The flight model presented in this work is the first remote-controlled laser system designed for spaceborne cold atom manipulation. The main challenges arise from mechanical compatibility with space constraints, which impose a high level of compactness, a low electric power consumption, a wide range of operating temperature and a vacuum environment. We describe the main functions of the laser source and give an overview of the main technologies developed for this instrument. We present some results of the qualification process. The characteristics of the laser source flight model, and their impact on the clock performances, have been verified in operational conditions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Review of Scientific Instrument

Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories

Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. Objective: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. Methods: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015–2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. Results: The majority (63%) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015–2019 period. However, in only 27% of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. Conclusions: In 2015–2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. Contribution: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas

A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries

Consistent and reliable time series of education- and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing countries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age- and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education- and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials

Projections of adult skills and the effect of COVID-19

In this paper, we project Skills in Literacy Adjusted Mean Years of Schooling (SLAMYS) for the working age population in 45 countries and quinquennial time periods until 2050 according to various population scenarios. Moreover, we integrate the effect of school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic on these projections. Adult skills are projected using the cohort components method. They can help in assessing the potential consequences of the recent trends for the adult population, particularly the workforce, whose skills are essential for the jobs contributing to economic growth and development outlooks. Our projections are novel as they take into account both the amount of schooling and quality of education and also consider the changes in adult skills through lifetime. Projections show that the adult skills gap between countries in the Global North and countries in the Global South will likely continue to exist by 2050, even under very optimistic assumptions–but may widen or narrow depending on the demographic development trajectories specific to each country. Moreover, the loss of learning due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbates inequalities between countries. Particularly, in countries where schools have been closed for a prolonged period of time and the infrastructure for effective online schooling is lacking, the skills of cohorts who were in school during the pandemic have been severely affected. The fact that the duration of school closures has been longer in many low- and middle-income countries is a serious concern for achieving global human capital equality. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is projected to erase decades-long gains in adult skills for affected cohorts unless policies to mitigate learning loss are implemented immediately