Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Niño events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Niño reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Niño-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Niño, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes.Earth and Life Science council (ALW), Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO

The legacy of 1300 years of land use in Jamaica

Despite decades of archaeological research on Jamaica, little is known about how settlers influenced landscape change on the island over time. Here, we examine the impact of human occupation through a multi-proxy approach using phytolith, charcoal, and stratigraphic analyses. White Marl was a continuously inhabited village settlement (ca. 1050–450 cal yrs BP) with large mounded midden areas, precolonial house structures, and human landscape management practices. We have shown that the local vegetation at White Marl was directly affected by human settlement through the use of agroforestry and burning, and suggest that fire was used to modify vegetation. Manioc phytoliths were found throughout human occupation and are broadly associated with increases in evidence for burning, suggesting fire was used to modify the landscape and clear vegetation for crop cultivation. The phytolith assemblages relate to three distinct temporal vegetation phases: (1) the earliest occupation dominated by arboreal vegetation (pre-ca. 870 cal yrs BP); (2) a transition to palm-dominated vegetation (ca. 870–670 cal yrs BP); and (3) the latest occupation representing European colonization associated with a more open, grass-dominated landscape (after ca. 670 cal yrs BP). These transitions occur independent of changes in paleoclimate records, suggesting humans were the dominant driver of vegetation change

The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions

Aquatic community response to volcanic eruptions on the Ecuadorian Andean flank: evidence from the palaeoecological record

Aquatic ecosystems in the tropical Andes are under increasing pressure from human modification of the landscape (deforestation and dams) and climatic change (increase of extreme events and 1.5 °C on average temperatures are projected for AD 2100). However, the resilience of these ecosystems to perturbations is poorly understood. Here we use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to assess the response of aquatic ecosystems to a major mechanism for natural disturbance, volcanic ash deposition. Specifically, we present data from two Neotropical lakes located on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador. Laguna Pindo (1°27.132′S–78°04.847′W) is a tectonically formed closed basin surrounded by a dense mid-elevation forest, whereas Laguna Baños (0°19.328′S–78°09.175′W) is a glacially formed lake with an inflow and outflow in high Andean Páramo grasslands. In each lake we examined the dynamics of chironomids and other aquatic and semi-aquatic organisms to explore the effect of thick (> 5 cm) volcanic deposits on the aquatic communities in these two systems with different catchment features. In both lakes past volcanic ash deposition was evident from four large tephras dated to c.850 cal year BP (Pindo), and 4600, 3600 and 1500 cal year BP (Baños). Examination of the chironomid and aquatic assemblages before and after the ash depositions revealed no shift in composition at Pindo, but a major change at Baños occurred after the last event around 1500 cal year BP. Chironomids at Baños changed from an assemblage dominated by Pseudochironomus and Polypedilum nubifer-type to Cricotopus/Paratrichocladius type-II, and such a dominance lasted for approximately 380 years. We suggest that, despite potential changes in the water chemistry, the major effect on the chironomid community resulted from the thickness of the tephra being deposited, which acted to shallow the water body beyond a depth threshold. Changes in the aquatic flora and fauna at the base of the trophic chain can promote cascade effects that may deteriorate the ecosystem, especially when already influenced by human activities, such as deforestation and dams, which is frequent in the high Andes

Human cooperation in groups: variation begets variation

Many experiments on human cooperation have revealed that individuals differ systematically in their tendency to cooperate with others. It has also been shown that individuals condition their behaviour on the overall cooperation level of their peers. Yet, little is known about how individuals respond to heterogeneity in cooperativeness in their neighbourhood. Here, we present an experimental study investigating whether and how people respond to heterogeneous behaviour in a public goods game. We find that a large majority of subjects does respond to heterogeneity in their group, but they respond in quite different ways. Most subjects contribute less to the public good when the contributions of their peers are more heterogeneous, but a substantial fraction of individuals consistently contributes more in this case. In addition, we find that individuals that respond positively to heterogeneity have a higher general cooperation tendency. The finding that social responsiveness occurs in different forms and is correlated with cooperativeness may have important implications for the outcome of cooperative interactions

Differential immunity as a factor influencing mussel hybrid zone structure

Interspecific hybridisation can alter fitness-related traits, including the response to pathogens, yet immunity is rarely investigated as a potential driver of hybrid zone dynamics, particularly in invertebrates. We investigated the immune response of mussels from a sympatric population at Croyde Bay, within the hybrid zone of Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis in Southwest England. The site is characterised by size-dependent variation in genotype frequencies, with a higher frequency of M. galloprovincialis alleles in large mussels, largely attributed to selective mortality in favour of the M. galloprovincialis genotype. To determine if differences in immune response may contribute to this size-dependent variation in genotype frequencies, we assessed the two pure species and their hybrids in their phagocytic abilities when subject to immune challenge as a measure of immunocompetence and measured the metabolic cost of mounting an antigen-stimulated immune response. Mussels identified as M. galloprovincialis had a greater immunocompetence response at a lower metabolic cost compared to mussels identified as M. edulis. Mussels identified as hybrids had intermediate values for both parameters, providing no evidence for heterosis but suggesting that increased susceptibility compared to M. galloprovincialis may be attributed to the M. edulis genotype. The results indicate phenotypic differences in the face of pathogenic infection, which may be a contributing factor to the differential mortality in favour of M. galloprovincialis, and the size-dependent variation in genotype frequencies associated with this contact zone. We propose that immunity may contribute to European mussel hybrid zone dynamics

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

This is the final version of the article. Available from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this record.Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft Access™ at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.The members of the ACER project wish to thank the QUEST-DESIRE (UK and France) bilateral project, the INQUA International Focus Group ACER and the INTIMATE-COST action for funding a suite of workshops to compile the ACER pollen and charcoal database and the workshop on ACER chronology that allow setting the basis for harmonizing the chronologies. Josué M. Polanco-Martinez was funded by a Basque Government postdoctoral fellowship (POS_2015_1_0006) and Sandy P. Harrison by the ERC Advanced Grant GC2.0: unlocking the past for a clearer future

No behavioural response to kin competition in a lekking species

The processes of kin selection and competition may occur simultaneously if limited individual dispersal i.e. population viscosity, is the only cause of the interactions between kin. Therefore, the net indirect benefits of a specific behaviour may largely depend on the existence of mechanisms dampening the fitness costs of competing with kin. In lekking species, males may increase the mating success of their close relatives (and hence gain indirect fitness benefits) because female prefer large leks. At the same time, kin selection may also lead to the evolution of mechanisms that dampen the costs of kin competition. As this mechanism has largely been ignored to date, we used detailed behavioural and genetic data collected in the black grouse Lyrurus tetrix to test whether males mitigate the costs of kin competition through the modulation of their fighting behaviours according to kinship and the avoidance of close relatives when establishing a lek territory. We found that neighbouring males’ fighting behaviour was unrelated to kinship and males did not avoid settling down with close relatives on leks. As males’ current and future mating success are strongly related to their behaviour on the lek (including fighting behaviour and territory position), the costs of kin competition may be negligible relative to the direct benefits of successful male-male contests. As we previously showed that the indirect fitness benefits of group membership were very limited in this black grouse population, these behavioural data support the idea that direct fitness benefits gained by successful male-male encounters likely outbalance any indirect fitness benefits