Entanglement between Demand and Supply in Markets with Bandwagon Goods

Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined 'positive externalities' or 'bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one -- in which case one says that the customers coordinate. This leads to a dilemma for the seller: should he sell at a high price, targeting a small number of buyers, or at low price targeting a large number of buyers? In this paper we show that the interaction between demand and supply is even more complex than expected, leading to what we call the curse of coordination: the pricing strategy for the seller which aimed at maximizing his profit corresponds to posting a price which, not only assumes that the customers will coordinate, but also lies very near the critical price value at which such high demand no more exists. This is obtained by the detailed mathematical analysis of a particular model formally related to the Random Field Ising Model and to a model introduced in social sciences by T C Schelling in the 70's.Comment: Updated version, accepted for publication, Journal of Statistical Physics, online Dec 201

Global coordination and standardisation in marine biodiversity through the World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS) and related databases

The World Register of Marine Species is an over 90% complete open-access inventory of all marine species names. Here we illustrate the scale of the problems with species names, synonyms, and their classification, and describe how WoRMS publishes online quality assured information on marine species.Within WoRMS, over 100 global, 12 regional and 4 thematic species databases are integrated with a common taxonomy. Over 240 editors from 133 institutions and 31 countries manage the content. To avoid duplication of effort, content is exchanged with 10 external databases. At present WoRMS contains 460,000 taxonomic names (from Kingdom to subspecies), 368,000 species level combinations of which 215,000 are currently accepted marine species names, and 26,000 related but non-marine species. Associated information includes 150,000 literature sources, 20,000 images, and locations of 44,000 specimens. Usage has grown linearly since its launch in 2007, with about 600,000 unique visitors to the website in 2011, and at least 90 organisations from 12 countries using WoRMS for their data management.By providing easy access to expert-validated content, WoRMS improves quality control in the use of species names, with consequent benefits to taxonomy, ecology, conservation and marine biodiversity research and management. The service manages information on species names that would otherwise be overly costly for individuals, and thus minimises errors in the application of nomenclature standards. WoRMS' content is expanding to include host-parasite relationships, additional literature sources, locations of specimens, images, distribution range, ecological, and biological data. Species are being categorised as introduced (alien, invasive), of conservation importance, and on other attributes. These developments have a multiplier effect on its potential as a resource for biodiversity research and management. As a consequence of WoRMS, we are witnessing improved communication within the scientific community, and anticipate increased taxonomic efficiency and quality control in marine biodiversity research and management

Structure optimization in an off-lattice protein model

We study an off-lattice protein toy model with two species of monomers interacting through modified Lennard-Jones interactions. Low energy configurations are optimized using the pruned-enriched-Rosenbluth method (PERM), hitherto employed to native state searches only for off lattice models. For 2 dimensions we found states with lower energy than previously proposed putative ground states, for all chain lengths $\ge 13$. This indicates that PERM has the potential to produce native states also for more realistic protein models. For $d=3$, where no published ground states exist, we present some putative lowest energy states for future comparison with other methods.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Is a Hypertension Diagnosis Associated With Improved Dietary Outcomes Within 2 to 4 Years? A Fixed-Effects Analysis From the China Health and Nutrition Survey

Background: Evidence shows that dietary factors play an important role in blood pressure. However, there is no clear understanding of whether hypertension diagnosis is associated with dietary modifications. The aim of this study is to estimate the longitudinal association between hypertension diagnosis and subsequent changes (within 2–4 years) in dietary sodium, potassium, and sodium-potassium (Na/K) ratio. Methods and Results: We included adults (18–75 years, n=16 264) from up to 9 waves (1991–2015) of the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Diet data were collected using three 24-hour dietary recalls and a household food inventory. We used fixed-effects models to estimate the association between newly self-reported diagnosed hypertension and subsequent within-individual changes in sodium, potassium, and Na/K ratio. We also examined changes among couples and at the household level. Results suggest that on average, men who were diagnosed with hypertension decreased their sodium intake by 251 mg/d and their Na/K ratio by 0.19 within 2 to 4 years after diagnosis (P<0.005). Among spouse pairs, sodium intake and Na/K ratio of women decreased when their husbands were diagnosed (P<0.05). Household average sodium density and Na/K ratio decreased, and household average potassium density increased after a man was diagnosed. In contrast, changes were not statistically significant when women were diagnosed. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that hypertension diagnosis for a man may result in modest dietary improvements for him, his wife, and other household members. Yet, diagnosis for a woman does not seem to result in dietary changes for her or her household members

The STRATAA study protocol: a programme to assess the burden of enteric fever in Bangladesh, Malawi and Nepal using prospective population census, passive surveillance, serological studies and healthcare utilisation surveys.

Introduction Invasive infections caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi and Paratyphi A are estimated to account for 12–27 million febrile illness episodes worldwide annually. Determining the true burden of typhoidal Salmonellae infections is hindered by lack of population-based studies and adequate laboratory diagnostics. The Strategic Typhoid alliance across Africa and Asia study takes a systematic approach to measuring the age-stratified burden of clinical and subclinical disease caused by typhoidal Salmonellae infections at three high-incidence urban sites in Africa and Asia. We aim to explore the natural history of Salmonella transmission in endemic settings, addressing key uncertainties relating to the epidemiology of enteric fever identified through mathematical models, and enabling optimisation of vaccine strategies. Methods/design Using census-defined denominator populations of ≥100 000 individuals at sites in Malawi, Bangladesh and Nepal, the primary outcome is to characterise the burden of enteric fever in these populations over a 24-month period. During passive surveillance, clinical and household data, and laboratory samples will be collected from febrile individuals. In parallel, healthcare utilisation and water, sanitation and hygiene surveys will be performed to characterise healthcare-seeking behaviour and assess potential routes of transmission. The rates of both undiagnosed and subclinical exposure to typhoidal Salmonellae (seroincidence), identification of chronic carriage and population seroprevalence of typhoid infection will be assessed through age-stratified serosurveys performed at each site. Secondary attack rates will be estimated among household contacts of acute enteric fever cases and possible chronic carriers. Ethics and dissemination This protocol has been ethically approved by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee, the icddr,b Institutional Review Board, the Malawian National Health Sciences Research Committee and College of Medicine Research Ethics Committee and Nepal Health Research Council. The study is being conducted in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and Good Clinical Practice. Informed consent was obtained before study enrolment. Results will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences. Trial registration number ISRCTN 12131979. Ethics references Oxford (Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee 39-15). Bangladesh (icddr,b Institutional Review Board PR-15119). Malawi (National Health Sciences Research Committee 15/5/1599). Nepal (Nepal Health Research Council 306/2015)

Homologous and heterologous re-challenge with Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A in a randomised controlled human infection model

Enteric fever is a systemic infection caused by Salmonella Typhi or Paratyphi A. In many endemic areas, these serovars co-circulate and can cause multiple infection-episodes in childhood. Prior exposure is thought to confer partial, but incomplete, protection against subsequent attacks of enteric fever. Empirical data to support this hypothesis are limited, and there are few studies describing the occurrence of heterologous-protection between these closely related serovars. We performed a challenge-re-challenge study using a controlled human infection model (CHIM) to investigate the extent of infection-derived immunity to Salmonella Typhi or Paratyphi A infection. We recruited healthy volunteers into two groups: naïve volunteers with no prior exposure to Salmonella Typhi/Paratyphi A and volunteers previously-exposed to Salmonella Typhi or Paratyphi A in earlier CHIM studies. Within each group, participants were randomised 1:1 to oral challenge with either Salmonella Typhi (104 CFU) or Paratyphi A (103 CFU). The primary objective was to compare the attack rate between naïve and previously challenged individuals, defined as the proportion of participants per group meeting the diagnostic criteria of temperature of ≥38°C persisting for ≥12 hours and/or S. Typhi/Paratyphi bacteraemia up to day 14 post challenge. The attack-rate in participants who underwent homologous re-challenge with Salmonella Typhi was reduced compared with challenged naïve controls, although this reduction was not statistically significant (12/27[44%] vs. 12/19[63%]; Relative risk 0.70; 95% CI 0.41–1.21; p = 0.24). Homologous re-challenge with Salmonella Paratyphi A also resulted in a lower attack-rate than was seen in challenged naïve controls (3/12[25%] vs. 10/18[56%]; RR0.45; 95% CI 0.16–1.30; p = 0.14). Evidence of protection was supported by a post hoc analysis in which previous exposure was associated with an approximately 36% and 57% reduced risk of typhoid or paratyphoid disease respectively on re-challenge. Individuals who did not develop enteric fever on primary exposure were significantly more likely to be protected on re-challenge, compared with individuals who developed disease on primary exposure. Heterologous re-challenge with Salmonella Typhi or Salmonella Paratyphi A was not associated with a reduced attack rate following challenge. Within the context of the model, prior exposure was not associated with reduced disease severity, altered microbiological profile or boosting of humoral immune responses. We conclude that prior Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi A exposure may confer partial but incomplete protection against subsequent infection, but with a comparable clinical and microbiological phenotype. There is no demonstrable cross-protection between these serovars, consistent with the co-circulation of Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi A. Collectively, these data are consistent with surveillance and modelling studies that indicate multiple infections can occur in high transmission settings, supporting the need for vaccines to reduce the burden of disease in childhood and achieve disease control. Trial registration NCT02192008; clinicaltrials.gov

The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC): Vaccine effectiveness study designs: Accelerating the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines and reducing the global burden of enteric fever. Report from a meeting held on 26-27 October 2016, Oxford, UK

Typhoid fever is estimated to cause between 11.9–26.9 million infections globally each year with 129,000–216,510 deaths. Access to improved water sources have reduced disease incidence in parts of the world but the use of efficacious vaccines is seen as an important public health tool for countries with a high disease burden. A new generation of Vi typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs), licensed for use in young children and expected to provide longer lasting protection than previous vaccines, are now available. The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) has convened a working group to review the evidence on TCVs and produce an updated WHO position paper for all typhoid vaccines in 2018 that will inform Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's future vaccine investment strategies for TCVs. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) has been formed through a $36.9 million funding program from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to accelerate the introduction of TCVs into Gavi-eligible countries. In October 2016, a meeting was held to initiate planning of TCV effectiveness studies that will provide the data required by policy makers and stakeholders to support decisions on TCV use in countries with a high typhoid burden. Discussion topics included (1) the latest evidence and data gaps in typhoid epidemiology; (2) WHO and Gavi methods and data requirements; (3) data on TCV efficacy; (4) cost effectiveness analysis for TCVs from mathematical models; (5) TCV delivery and effectiveness study design. Specifically, participants were asked to comment on study design in 3 sites for which population-based typhoid surveillance is underway. The conclusion of the meeting was that country-level decision making would best be informed by the respective selected sites in Africa and Asia vaccinating children aged from 9-months to 15-years-old, employing either an individual or cluster randomized design with design influenced by population characteristics, transmission dynamics, and statistical considerations

Uncovering precision phenotype-biomarker associations in traumatic brain injury using topological data analysis

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a complex disorder that is traditionally stratified based on clinical signs and symptoms. Recent imaging and molecular biomarker innovations provide unprecedented opportunities for improved TBI precision medicine, incorporating patho-anatomical and molecular mechanisms. Complete integration of these diverse data for TBI diagnosis and patient stratification remains an unmet challenge. Methods and findings: The Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) Pilot multicenter study enrolled 586 acute TBI patients and collected diverse common data elements (TBI-CDEs) across the study population, including imaging, genetics, and clinical outcomes. We then applied topology-based data-driven discovery to identify natural subgroups of patients, based on the TBI-CDEs collected. Our hypothesis was two-fold: 1) A machine learning tool known as topological data analysis (TDA) would reveal data-driven patterns in patient outcomes to identify candidate biomarkers of recovery, and 2) TDA-identified biomarkers would significantly predict patient outcome recovery after TBI using more traditional methods of univariate statistical tests. TDA algorithms organized and mapped the data of TBI patients in multidimensional space, identifying a subset of mild TBI patients with a specific multivariate phenotype associated with unfavorable outcome at 3 and 6 months after injury. Further analyses revealed that this patient subset had high rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and enrichment in several distinct genetic polymorphisms associated with cellular responses to stress and DNA damage (PARP1), and in striatal dopamine processing (ANKK1, COMT, DRD2). Conclusions: TDA identified a unique diagnostic subgroup of patients with unfavorable outcome after mild TBI that were significantly predicted by the presence of specific genetic polymorphisms. Machine learning methods such as TDA may provide a robust method for patient stratification and treatment planning targeting identified biomarkers in future clinical trials in TBI patients

Event-by-Event Fluctuations in Particle Multiplicities and Transverse Energy Produced in 158.A GeV Pb+Pb collisions

Event-by-event fluctuations in the multiplicities of charged particles and photons, and the total transverse energy in 158$\cdot A$ GeV Pb+Pb collisions are studied for a wide range of centralities. For narrow centrality bins the multiplicity and transverse energy distributions are found to be near perfect Gaussians. The effect of detector acceptance on the multiplicity fluctuations has been studied and demonstrated to follow statistical considerations. The centrality dependence of the charged particle multiplicity fluctuations in the measured data has been found to agree reasonably well with those obtained from a participant model. However for photons the multiplicity fluctuations has been found to be lower compared to those obtained from a participant model. The multiplicity and transverse energy fluctuations have also been compared to those obtained from the VENUS event generator.Comment: To appear in Physical Review C; changes : more detailed discussion on errors and few figures modifie