A 2MASS All-Sky View of the Sagittarius Dwarf Galaxy: IV. Modeling the Sagittarius Tidal Tails

M giants recovered from the Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) have recently been used to map the position and velocity distributions of tidal debris from the Sagittarius (Sgr) dwarf spheroidal galaxy entirely around the Galaxy. We compare this data set to both test particle orbits and N-body simulations of satellite destruction run within a variety of rigid Milky Way potentials and find that the mass of the Milky Way within 50 kpc of its center should be 3.8-5.6 x 10^11 Msun in order for any Sgr orbit to simultaneously fit the velocity gradient in the Sgr trailing debris and the apocenter of the Sgr leading debris. Orbital pole precession of young debris and leading debris velocities in regions corresponding to older debris provide contradictory evidence in favor of oblate/prolate Galactic halo potentials respectively, leading us to conclude that the orbit of Sgr has evolved over the past few Gyr. Based upon the velocity dispersion and width along the trailing tidal stream we estimate the current bound mass of Sgr to be M_Sgr = 2 - 5 x 10^8 Msun independant of the form of the Galactic potential; this corresponds to a range of mass to light ratios (M/L)_Sgr = 14 - 36 (M/L)_Sun for the Sgr core. Models with masses in this range best fit the apocenter of leading Sgr tidal debris when they orbit with a radial period of roughly 0.85 Gyr and have periGalactica and apoGalactica of about 15 kpc and 60 kpc respectively. These distances will scale with the assumed distance to the Sgr dwarf and the assumed depth of the Galactic potential. The density distribution of debris along the orbit in these models is consistent with the M giant observations, and debris at all orbital phases where M giants are obviously present is younger (i.e. was lost more recently from the satellite) than the typical age of a Sgr M giant star.Comment: 42 pages, 13 figures; Accepted for publication by ApJ (October 08, 2004; originally submitted May 10, 2004). Fixed typos and added references. PDF file with high resolution figures may be downloaded from http://www.astro.caltech.edu/~drlaw/Papers/Sgr_paper4.pd

Great Circle tidal streams: evidence for a nearly spherical massive dark halo around the Milky Way

An all high-latitude sky survey for cool carbon giant stars in the Galactic halo has revealed 75 such stars, of which the majority are new detections. Of these, more than half are clustered on a Great Circle on the sky which intersects the center of Sagittarius dwarf galaxy (Sgr) and is parallel to its proper motion vector, while many of the remainder are outlying Magellanic Cloud C-stars. A pole-count analysis of the carbon star distribution clearly indicates that the Great Circle stream we have isolated is statistically significant, being a 5-6 sigma over-density. These two arguments strongly support our conclusion that a large fraction of the Halo carbon stars originated in Sgr. The stream orbits the Galaxy between the present location of Sgr, 16 kpc from the Galactic center, and the most distant stream carbon star, at ~60 kpc. It follows neither a polar nor a Galactic plane orbit, so that a large range in both Galactic R and z distances are probed. That the stream is observed as a Great Circle indicates that the Galaxy does not exert a significant torque upon the stream, so the Galactic potential must be nearly spherical in the regions probed by the stream. We present N-body experiments simulating this disruption process as a function of the distribution of mass in the Galactic halo. A likelihood analysis shows that, in the Galactocentric distance range 16 kpc < R < 60 kpc, the dark halo is most likely almost spherical. We rule out, at high confidence levels, the possibility that the Halo is significantly oblate, with isodensity contours of aspect q_m < 0.7. This result is quite unexpected and contests currently popular galaxy formation models. (Abridged)Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures (6 in color, 8 chunky due to PS compression), minor revisions, accepted by Ap

Re-visiting the relations: Galactic thin disc age-velocity dispersion relation

The velocity dispersion of stars in the solar neighbourhood thin disc increases with time after star formation. Nordstrom et al. (2004) is the most recent observational attempt to constrain the age-velocity dispersion relation. They fitted the age-velocity dispersion relations of each Galactic cardinal direction space velocity component, U (towards the Galactic centre), V (in the direction of Galactic rotation) and W (towards the North Galactic Pole), with power laws and interpreted these as evidence for continuous heating of the disc in all directions throughout its lifetime. We re-visit these relations with their data and use Famaey et al. (2005) to show that structure in the local velocity distribution function distorts the in-plane (U and V) velocity distributions away from Gaussian so that a dispersion is not an adequate parametrization of their functions. The age-sigma(W) relation can however be constrained because the sample is well phase-mixed vertically. We do not find any local signature of the stellar warp in the Galactic disc. Vertical disc heating does not saturate at an early stage. Our new result is that a power law is not required by the data: disc heating models that saturate after ~ 4.5 Gyr are equally consistent with observations.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 24 pages, 20 figure

HAGE (DDX43) is a biomarker for poor prognosis and a predictor of chemotherapy response in breast cancer

Background: HAGE protein is a known immunogenic cancer-specific antigen. Methods: The biological, prognostic and predictive values of HAGE expression was studied using immunohistochemistry in three cohorts of patients with BC (n=2147): early primary (EP-BC; n=1676); primary oestrogen receptor-negative (PER-BC; n=275) treated with adjuvant anthracycline-combination therapies (Adjuvant-ACT); and primary locally advanced disease (PLA-BC) who received neo-adjuvant anthracycline-combination therapies (Neo-adjuvant-ACT; n=196). The relationship between HAGE expression and the tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in matched prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy samples were investigated. Results: Eight percent of patients with EP-BC exhibited high HAGE expression (HAGEþ) and was associated with aggressive clinico-pathological features (Ps<0.01). Furthermore, HAGEþexpression was associated with poor prognosis in both univariate and multivariate analysis (Ps<0.001). Patients with HAGE+ did not benefit from hormonal therapy in high-risk ER-positive disease. HAGE+ and TILs were found to be independent predictors for pathological complete response to neoadjuvant-ACT; P<0.001. A statistically significant loss of HAGE expression following neoadjuvant-ACT was found (P=0.000001), and progression-free survival was worse in those patients who had HAGE+ residual disease (P=0.0003). Conclusions: This is the first report to show HAGE to be a potential prognostic marker and a predictor of response to ACT in patients with BC

Prediction Tools for Unfavourable Outcomes in Clostridium difficile Infection: A Systematic Review

CONTEXT: Identifying patients at risk for adverse outcomes of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), including recurrence and death, will become increasingly important as novel therapies emerge, which are more effective than traditional approaches but very expensive. Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can improve the accuracy of medical decision-making. Several CPRs have been developed for CDI, but none has gained a widespread acceptance. METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies describing the derivation or validation of CPRs for unfavourable outcomes of CDI, in medical databases (Medline, Embase, PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane) and abstracts of conferences. RESULTS: Of 2945 titles and abstracts screened, 13 studies on the derivation of a CPR were identified: two on recurrences, five on complications (including mortality), five on mortality alone and one on response to treatment. Two studies on the validation of different severity indices were also retrieved. Most CPRs were developed as secondary analyses using cohorts assembled for other purposes. CPRs presented several methodological limitations that could explain their limited use in clinical practice. Except for leukocytosis, albumin and age, there was much heterogeneity in the variables used, and most studies were limited by small sample sizes. Eight models used a retrospective design. Only four studies reported the incidence of the outcome of interest, even if this is essential to evaluate the potential usefulness of a model in other populations. Only five studies performed multivariate analyses to adjust for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of weighing variables, of validation, calibration and measures of reproducibility, the weak validities and performances when assessed, and the absence of sensitivity analyses, all led to suboptimal quality and debatable utility of those CPRs. Evidence-based tools developed through appropriate prospective cohorts would be more valuable for clinicians than empirically-developed CPRs

Reduction of late stillbirth with the introduction of fetal movement information and guidelines – a clinical quality improvement

We have performed a full cross-validation of this clinical Femina data collection against the routinely collected data of the Medical Birth Registry of Norway to validate the estimates of reduced mortality in the total population. The original estimate of fewer deaths during the intervention with OR 0.7 remains virtually unchanged for the original data collection

Status and performance of the underground muon detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Muons and Infill for the Ground Array (AMIGA) is an enhancement of the Pierre Auger Observatory, whose purpose is to lower the energy threshold of the observatory down to 1016.5 eV, and to measure the muonic content of air showers directly. These measurements will significantly contribute to the determination of primary particle masses in the range between the second knee and the ankle, to the study of hadronic interaction models with air showers, and, in turn, to the understanding of the muon puzzle. The underground muon detector of AMIGA is concomitant to two triangular grids of water-Cherenkov stations with spacings of 433 and 750 m; each grid position is equipped with a 30 m2 plastic scintillator buried at 2.3 m depth. After the engineering array completion in early 2018 and general improvements to the design, the production phase commenced. In this work, we report on the status of the underground muon detector, the progress of its deployment, and the performance achieved after two years of operation. The detector construction is foreseen to finish by mid-2022

A combined fit of energy spectrum, shower depth distribution and arrival directions to constrain astrophysical models of UHECR sources

The combined fit of the measured energy spectrum and distribution of depths of shower maximum of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays is known to constrain the parameters of astrophysical scenarios with homogeneous source distributions. Further measurements show that the cosmic-ray arrival directions agree better with the directions and fluxes of catalogs of starburst galaxies and active galactic nuclei than with isotropy. Here, we present a novel combination of both analyses. For that, a three-dimensional universe model containing a nearby source population and a homogeneous background source distribution is built, and its parameters are adapted using a combined fit of the energy spectrum, depth of shower maximum distribution and energy-dependent arrival directions. The model takes into account a symmetric magnetic field blurring, source evolution and interactions during propagation. We use simulated data, which resemble measurements of the Pierre Auger Observatory, to evaluate the method’s sensitivity. With this, we are able to verify that the source parameters as well as the fraction of events from the nearby source population and the size of the magnetic field blurring are determined correctly, and that the data is described by the fitted model including the catalog sources with their respective fluxes and three-dimensional positions. We demonstrate that by combining all three measurements we reach the sensitivity necessary to discriminate between the catalogs of starburst galaxies and active galactic nuclei

Constraining Lorentz Invariance Violation using the muon content of extensive air showers measured at the Pierre Auger Observatory

Lorentz Invariance (LI) implies that the space-time structure is the same for all observers. On the other hand, various quantum gravity theories suggest that it may be violated when approaching the Planck scale. At extreme energies, like those available in the collision of Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECRs) with atmosphere nuclei, one should also expect a change in the interactions due to Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV). In this work, the effects of LIV on the development of Extensive Air Showers (EAS) have been considered. After having introduced LIV as a perturbation term in the single-particle dispersion relation, a library of simulated showers with different energies, primary particles and LIV strengths has been produced. Possible LIV has been studied using the muon content of air showers measured at the Pierre Auger Observatory. Limits on LIV parameters have been derived from a comparison between the Monte Carlo expectations and muon fluctuation measurements from the Pierre Auger Observatory

A search for ultra-high-energy photons at the Pierre Auger Observatory exploiting air-shower Universality

The Pierre Auger Observatory is the most sensitive detector to primary photons with energies above ∼ 0.2 EeV. It measures extensive air showers using a hybrid technique that combines a fluorescence detector (FD) with a ground array of particle detectors (SD). The signatures of a photon-induced air shower are a larger atmospheric depth at the shower maximum (Xmax) and a steeper lateral distribution function, along with a lower number of muons with respect to the bulk of hadron-induced background. Using observables measured by the FD and SD, three photon searches in different energy bands are performed. In particular, between threshold energies of 1–10 EeV, a new analysis technique has been developed by combining the FD-based measurement of Xmax with the SD signal through a parameter related to its muon content, derived from the universality of the air showers. This technique has led to a better photon/hadron separation and, consequently, to a higher search sensitivity, resulting in a tighter upper limit than before. The outcome of this new analysis is presented here, along with previous results in the energy ranges below 1 EeV and above 10 EeV. From the data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory in about 15 years of operation, the most stringent constraints on the fraction of photons in the cosmic flux are set over almost three decades in energy