Evidence for Anthropogenic Surface Loading as Trigger Mechanism of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

Two and a half years prior to China's M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake of May 2008, at least 300 million metric tons of water accumulated with additional seasonal water level changes in the Minjiang River Valley at the eastern margin of the Longmen Shan. This article shows that static surface loading in the Zipingpu water reservoir induced Coulomb failure stresses on the nearby Beichuan thrust fault system at <17km depth. Triggering stresses exceeded levels of daily lunar and solar tides and perturbed a fault area measuring 416+/-96km^2. These stress perturbations, in turn, likely advanced the clock of the mainshock and directed the initial rupture propagation upward towards the reservoir on the "Coulomb-like" Beichuan fault with rate-and-state dependent frictional behavior. Static triggering perturbations produced up to 60 years (0.6%) of equivalent tectonic loading, and show strong correlations to the coseismic slip. Moreover, correlations between clock advancement and coseismic slip, observed during the mainshock beneath the reservoir, are strongest for a longer seismic cycle (10kyr) of M>7 earthquakes. Finally, the daily event rate of the micro-seismicity (M>0.5) correlates well with the static stress perturbations, indicating destabilization.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

Slider-Block Friction Model for Landslides: Application to Vaiont and La Clapiere Landslides

Accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides have been found empirically to follow a time-to-failure power law, corresponding to a finite-time singularity of the velocity $v \sim 1/(t_c-t)$ [{\it Voight}, 1988]. Here, we provide a physical basis for this phenomenological law based on a slider-block model using a state and velocity dependent friction law established in the laboratory and used to model earthquake friction. This physical model accounts for and generalizes Voight's observation: depending on the ratio $B/A$ of two parameters of the rate and state friction law and on the initial frictional state of the sliding surfaces characterized by a reduced parameter $x_i$, four possible regimes are found. Two regimes can account for an acceleration of the displacement. We use the slider-block friction model to analyze quantitatively the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont and La Clapi\`ere. The Vaiont landslide was the catastrophic culmination of an accelerated slope velocity. La Clapi\`ere landslide was characterized by a peak of slope acceleration that followed decades of ongoing accelerating displacements, succeeded by a restabilizing phase. Our inversion of the slider-block model on these data sets shows good fits and suggest to classify the Vaiont (respectively La Clapi\`ere) landslide as belonging to the velocity weakening unstable (respectively strengthening stable) sliding regime.Comment: shortened by focusing of the frictional model, Latex document with AGU style file of 14 pages + 11 figures (1 jpeg photo of figure 6 given separately) + 1 tabl

Brief communication: Meteorological and climatological conditions associated with the 9 January 2018 post-fire debris flows in Montecito and Carpinteria, California, USA

The Thomas Fire burned 114&thinsp;078&thinsp;ha in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, southern California, during December 2017–January 2018. On 9 January 2018, high-intensity rainfall occurred over the Thomas Fire burn area in the mountains above the communities of Montecito and Carpinteria, initiating multiple devastating debris flows. The highest rainfall intensities occurred with the passage of a narrow rainband along a cold front oriented north to south. Orographic enhancement associated with moist southerly flow immediately ahead of the cold front also played a role. We provide an explanation of the meteorological characteristics of the event and place it in historic context.</p

Recommendations for resuming elective hip and knee arthroplasty in the setting of the SARS‑CoV‑2 pandemic: the European Hip Society and European Knee Associates Survey of Members

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the health care system around the entire globe. A consensus is needed about resuming total hip and knee procedures. The European Hip Society (EHS) and the European Knee Association (EKA) formed a panel of experts that have produced a consensus statement on how the safe re-introduction of elective hip and knee arthroplasty should be undertaken. Methods A prospective online survey was done among members of EHS and EKA. The survey consisted of 27 questions. It includes basic information on demographics and details the participant’s agreement with each recommendation. The participant could choose among three options (agree, disagree, abstain). Recommendations focussed on pre-operative, perioperative, and post-operative handling of patients and precautions. Results A total of 681 arthroplasty surgeons participated in the survey, with 479 fully completing the survey. The participants were from 44 countries and 6 continents. Apart from adhering to National and Local Guidelines, the recommendations concerned how to make elective arthroplasty safe for patients and staf. Conclusion The survey has shown good-to-excellent agreement of the participants with regards to the statements made in the recommendations for the safe return to elective arthroplasty following the frst wave of the COVID-19 pandemi

Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outcomes in Cancer Patients: A First Report From Guy's Cancer Center in London

Background: There is insufficient evidence to support clinical decision-making for cancer patients diagnosed with COVID-19 due to the lack of large studies. Methods: We used data from a single large UK Cancer Center to assess the demographic/clinical characteristics of 156 cancer patients with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 29 February and 12 May 2020. Logistic/Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify which demographic and/or clinical characteristics were associated with COVID-19 severity/death. Results: 128 (82%) presented with mild/moderate COVID-19 and 28 (18%) with a severe case of the disease. An initial cancer diagnosis >24 months before COVID-19 [OR: 1.74 (95% CI: 0.71–4.26)], presenting with fever [6.21 (1.76–21.99)], dyspnea [2.60 (1.00–6.76)], gastro-intestinal symptoms [7.38 (2.71–20.16)], or higher levels of C-reactive protein [9.43 (0.73–121.12)] were linked with greater COVID-19 severity. During a median follow-up of 37 days, 34 patients had died of COVID-19 (22%). Being of Asian ethnicity [3.73 (1.28–10.91)], receiving palliative treatment [5.74 (1.15–28.79)], having an initial cancer diagnosis >24 months before [2.14 (1.04–4.44)], dyspnea [4.94 (1.99–12.25)], and increased CRP levels [10.35 (1.05–52.21)] were positively associated with COVID-19 death. An inverse association was observed with increased levels of albumin [0.04 (0.01–0.04)]. Conclusions: A longer-established diagnosis of cancer was associated with increased severity of infection as well as COVID-19 death, possibly reflecting the effects a more advanced malignant disease has on this infection. Asian ethnicity and palliative treatment were also associated with COVID-19 death in cancer patients

Smooth Muscle Myosin Inhibition: A Novel Therapeutic Approach for Pulmonary Hypertension

Pulmonary hypertension remains a major clinical problem despite current therapies. In this study, we examine for the first time a novel pharmacological target, smooth muscle myosin, and determine if the smooth muscle myosin inhibitor, CK-2019165 (CK-165) ameliorates pulmonary hypertension.Six domestic female pigs were surgically instrumented to measure pulmonary blood flow and systemic and pulmonary vascular dynamics. Pulmonary hypertension was induced by hypoxia, or infusion of the thromboxane analog (U-46619, 0.1 µg/kg/min, i.v.). In rats, chronic pulmonary hypertension was induced by monocrotaline.CK-165 (4 mg/kg, i.v.) reduced pulmonary vascular resistance by 22±3 and 28±6% from baseline in hypoxia and thromboxane pig models, respectively (p<0.01 and 0.01), while mean arterial pressure also fell and heart rate rose slightly. When CK-165 was delivered via inhalation in the hypoxia model, pulmonary vascular resistance fell by 17±6% (p<0.05) while mean arterial pressure and heart rate were unchanged. In the monocrotaline model of chronic pulmonary hypertension, inhaled CK-165 resulted in a similar (18.0±3.8%) reduction in right ventricular systolic pressure as compared with sildenafil (20.3±4.5%).Inhibition of smooth muscle myosin may be a novel therapeutic target for treatment of pulmonary hypertension