Geodetic Observations of Weak Determinism in Rupture Evolution of Large Earthquakes.

The moment evolution of large earthquakes is a subject of fundamental interest to both basic and applied seismology. Specifically, an open problem is when in the rupture process a large earthquake exhibits features dissimilar from those of a lesser magnitude event. The answer to this question is of importance for rapid, reliable estimation of earthquake magnitude, a major priority of earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. Much effort has been made to test whether earthquakes are deterministic, meaning that observations in the first few seconds of rupture can be used to predict the final rupture extent. However, results have been inconclusive, especially for large earthquakes greater than M w 7. Traditional seismic methods struggle to rapidly distinguish the size of large-magnitude events, in particular near the source, even after rupture completion, making them insufficient to resolve the question of predictive rupture behavior. Displacements derived from Global Navigation Satellite System data can accurately estimate magnitude in real time, even for the largest earthquakes. We employ a combination of seismic and geodetic (Global Navigation Satellite System) data to investigate early rupture metrics, to determine whether observational data support deterministic rupture behavior. We find that while the earliest metrics (~5 s of data) are not enough to infer final earthquake magnitude, accurate estimates are possible within the first tens of seconds, prior to rupture completion, suggesting a weak determinism. We discuss the implications for earthquake source physics and rupture evolution and address recommendations for earthquake and tsunami early warning

Shortest paths in nearly conservative digraphs

We introduce the following notion: a digraph D = (V, A) with arc weights c: A → R is called nearly conservative if every negative cycle consists of two arcs. Computing shortest paths in nearly conservative digraphs is NP-hard, and even deciding whether a digraph is nearly conservative is coNP-complete. We show that the “All Pairs Shortest Path” problem is fixed parameter tractable with various parameters for nearly conservative digraphs. The results also apply for the special case of conservative mixed graphs

Using genetic algorithms to generate test sequences for complex timed systems

The generation of test data for state based specifications is a computationally expensive process. This problem is magnified if we consider that time con- straints have to be taken into account to govern the transitions of the studied system. The main goal of this paper is to introduce a complete methodology, sup- ported by tools, that addresses this issue by represent- ing the test data generation problem as an optimisa- tion problem. We use heuristics to generate test cases. In order to assess the suitability of our approach we consider two different case studies: a communication protocol and the scientific application BIPS3D. We give details concerning how the test case generation problem can be presented as a search problem and automated. Genetic algorithms (GAs) and random search are used to generate test data and evaluate the approach. GAs outperform random search and seem to scale well as the problem size increases. It is worth to mention that we use a very simple fitness function that can be eas- ily adapted to be used with other evolutionary search techniques

Validation of the Chinese version of the "Mood Disorder Questionnaire" for screening bipolar disorder among patients with a current depressive episode

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ) is a well-recognized screening tool for bipolar disorder, but its Chinese version needs further validation. This study aims to measure the accuracy of the Chinese version of the MDQ as a screening instrument for bipolar disorder (BPD) in a group of patients with a current major depressive episode.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>142 consecutive patients with an initial DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of a major depressive episode were screened for BPD using the Chinese translation of the MDQ and followed up for one year. The final diagnosis, determined by a special committee consisting of three trained senior psychiatrists, was used as a 'gold standard' and ROC was plotted to evaluate the performance of the MDQ. The optimal cut-off was chosen by maximizing the Younden's index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 142 patients, 122 (85.9%) finished the one year follow-up. On the basis of a semi-structured clinical interview 48.4% (59/122) received a diagnosis of unipolar depression (UPD), 36.9% (45/122) BPDII and 14.8% (18/122) BPDI. At the end of the one year follow-up,9 moved from UPD to BPD, 2 from BPDII to UPD, 1 from BPDII to BPDI, the overall rate of initial misdiagnosis was 16.4%. MDQ showed a good accuracy for BPD: the optimal cut-off was 4, with a sensitivity of 0.72 and a specificity of 0.73. When BPDII and BPDI were calculated independently, the optimal cut-off for BPDII was 4, with a sensitivity of 0.70 and a specificity of 0.73; while the optimal cut-off for BPDI was 5, with a sensitivity of 0.67 and a specificity of 0.86.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results show that the Chinese version of MDQ is a valid tool for screening BPD in a group of patients with current depressive episode on the Chinese mainland.</p

Inorganic speciation of dissolved elements in seawater: the influence of pH on concentration ratios

Assessments of inorganic elemental speciation in seawater span the past four decades. Experimentation, compilation and critical review of equilibrium data over the past forty years have, in particular, considerably improved our understanding of cation hydrolysis and the complexation of cations by carbonate ions in solution. Through experimental investigations and critical evaluation it is now known that more than forty elements have seawater speciation schemes that are strongly influenced by pH. In the present work, the speciation of the elements in seawater is summarized in a manner that highlights the significance of pH variations. For elements that have pH-dependent species concentration ratios, this work summarizes equilibrium data (S = 35, t = 25°C) that can be used to assess regions of dominance and relative species concentrations. Concentration ratios of complex species are expressed in the form log[A]/[B] = pH - C where brackets denote species concentrations in solution, A and B are species important at higher (A) and lower (B) solution pH, and C is a constant dependent on salinity, temperature and pressure. In the case of equilibria involving complex oxy-anions (MO(x)(OH)(y)) or hydroxy complexes (M(OH)(n)), C is written as pK(n )= -log K(n )or pK(n)* = -log K(n)* respectively, where K(n )and K(n)* are equilibrium constants. For equilibria involving carbonate complexation, the constant C is written as pQ = -log(K(2)(l)K(n )[HCO(3)(-)]) where K(2)(l )is the HCO(3 )(- )dissociation constant, K(n )is a cation complexation constant and [HCO(3)(-)] is approximated as 1.9 × 10(-3 )molar. Equilibrium data expressed in this manner clearly show dominant species transitions, ranges of dominance, and relative concentrations at any pH

The CONSTANCES cohort: an open epidemiological laboratory

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prospective cohorts represent an essential design for epidemiological studies and allow for the study of the combined effects of lifestyle, environment, genetic predisposition, and other risk factors on a large variety of disease endpoints. The CONSTANCES cohort is intended to provide public health information and to serve as an "open epidemiologic laboratory" accessible to the epidemiologic research community. Although designed as a "general-purpose" cohort with very broad coverage, it will particularly focus on occupational and social determinants of health, and on aging.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The CONSTANCES cohort is designed as a randomly selected representative sample of French adults aged 18-69 years at inception; 200,000 subjects will be included over a five-year period. At inclusion, the selected subjects will be invited to fill a questionnaire and to attend a Health Screening Center (HSC) for a comprehensive health examination: weight, height, blood pressure, electrocardiogram, vision, auditory, spirometry, and biological parameters; for those aged 45 years and older, a specific work-up of functional, physical, and cognitive capacities will be performed. A biobank will be set up. The follow-up includes a yearly self-administered questionnaire, and a periodic visit to an HSC. Social and work-related events and health data will be collected from the French national retirement, health and death databases. The data that will be collected include social and demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, life events, behaviors, and occupational factors. The health data will cover a wide spectrum: self-reported health scales, reported prevalent and incident diseases, long-term chronic diseases and hospitalizations, sick-leaves, handicaps, limitations, disabilities and injuries, healthcare utilization and services provided, and causes of death.</p> <p>To take into account non-participation at inclusion and attrition throughout the longitudinal follow-up, a cohort of non-participants will be set up and followed through the same national databases as participants.</p> <p>A field-pilot was performed in 2010 in seven HSCs, which included about 3,500 subjects; it showed a satisfactory structure of the sample and a good validity of the collected data.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The constitution of the full eligible sample is planned during the last trimester of 2010, and the cohort will be launched at the beginning of 2011.</p

Effect of bevacizumab in older patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: pooled analysis of four randomized studies

Background: Bevacizumab is frequently combined with 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The relative benefit of bevacizumab in older patients has not been widely studied and is of interest. Patients and methods: This retrospective analysis used data from three first-line randomized controlled studies and one second-line randomized controlled study of bevacizumab plus chemotherapy in medically fit (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 or 1) patients with mCRC. Overall survival (OS) and on-treatment progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed in patients aged greater than 65, greater than or equal to 65, and greater than or equal to 70 years. Results were compared using unstratified hazard ratios (HRs). Grade 3-5 adverse events were also assessed. Results: Bevacizumab statistically significantly improved PFS [HR 0.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49-0.68] and OS (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74-0.97) in patients aged greater than or equal to 65 years; patients aged greater than or equal to 70 years had similar improvements. Benefits were consistent across the studies, irrespective of setting, bevacizumab dose, or chemotherapy regimen. Increases in thromboembolic events were observed in patients aged greater than or equal to 65 and greater than or equal to 70 years in the bevacizumab group compared with the control group, mainly as a result of increases in arterial thromboembolic events. No other substantial age-related increases in grade 3-5 adverse events were observed. Conclusions: In medically fit older patients, bevacizumab provides similar PFS and OS benefits as in younger patients

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors have proven efficacy in the treatment of panic disorder, obsessive–compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and social anxiety disorder. Accumulating data shows that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment can also be efficacious in patients with generalized anxiety disorder. This review summarizes the findings of randomized controlled trials of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment for generalized anxiety disorder, examines the strengths and weaknesses of other therapeutic approaches and considers potential new treatments for patients with this chronic and disabling anxiety disorder

Catastrophizing mediates the relationship between the personal belief in a just world and pain outcomes among chronic pain support group attendees

Health-related research suggests the belief in a just world can act as a personal resource that protects against the adverse effects of pain and illness. However, currently, little is known about how this belief, particularly in relation to one’s own life, might influence pain. Consistent with the suggestions of previous research, the present study undertook a secondary data analysis to investigate pain catastrophizing as a mediator of the relationship between the personal just world belief and chronic pain outcomes in a sample of chronic pain support group attendees. Partially supporting the hypotheses, catastrophizing was negatively correlated with the personal just world belief and mediated the relationship between this belief and pain and disability, but not distress. Suggestions for future research and intervention development are made