Reporting of lifetime fractures: methodological considerations and results from the Thai cohort study

OBJECTIVES To provide estimates of fracture incidence among young adults in Thailand. DESIGN Cross-sectional analysis of a large national cohort. SETTING Thailand. PARTICIPANTS A total of 60 569 study participants residing nationwide responded to the 2009 follow-up survey; 55% were women and median age was 34 years (range 19-92). OUTCOME MEASURES Self-reported lifetime fractures, along with age at fracture. Fracture incidence rates per person-year were then compared using lifetime fracture reports, and again selecting only fractures reported for the last year. Incidence rates were compared by age and sex. RESULTS 18 010 lifetime fractures were reported; 11 645(65%) by men. Lifetime fracture prevalence was 30% for men and 15% for women. Lifetime incidence per 10 000 person-years was 83; analysing only fractures from the last year yielded a corresponding incidence rate of 187. For ages 21-30, fractures per 10 000 person-years were more common among men than women (283 (95% CI 244 to 326) and 150 (130 to 173), respectively); with increasing age, rates decreased among men and increased among women (for ages 51-60, 97 (58 to 151) and 286 (189 to 417), respectively). CONCLUSIONS Large-scale surveys provide a feasible method for establishing relative fracture incidence among informative subgroups in a population. Limiting analyses to fractures reported to have occurred recently minimises bias due to poor recall. The pattern of self-reported fracture incidence among Thais aged 20-60 was similar to that reported for Western countries: high falling rates in young men and high rising rates in older women.The Thai Cohort Study is funded by the International Collaborative Research Grants Scheme with joint grants from the Wellcome Trust UK (GR071587MA) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC; 268055), and as a global health grant from the NHMRC (585426)

Impact of the HIV-1 genetic background and HIV-1 population size on the evolution of raltegravir resistance

Background: Emergence of resistance against integrase inhibitor raltegravir in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) patients is generally associated with selection of one of three signature mutations: Y143C/R, Q148K/H/R or N155H, representing three distinct resistance pathways. The mechanisms that drive selection of a specific pathway are still poorly understood. We investigated the impact of the HIV-1 genetic background and population dynamics on the emergence of raltegravir resistance. Using deep sequencing we analyzed the integrase coding sequence (CDS) in longitudinal samples from five patients who initiated raltegravir plus optimized background therapy at viral loads > 5000 copies/ml. To investigate the role of the HIV-1 genetic background we created recombinant viruses containing the viral integrase coding region from pre-raltegravir samples from two patients in whom raltegravir resistance developed through different pathways. The in vitro selections performed with these recombinant viruses were designed to mimic natural population bottlenecks. Results: Deep sequencing analysis of the viral integrase CDS revealed that the virological response to raltegravir containing therapy inversely correlated with the relative amount of unique sequence variants that emerged suggesting diversifying selection during drug pressure. In 4/5 patients multiple signature mutations representing different resistance pathways were observed. Interestingly, the resistant population can consist of a single resistant variant that completely dominates the population but also of multiple variants from different resistance pathways that coexist in the viral population. We also found evidence for increased diversification after stronger bottlenecks. In vitro selections with low viral titers, mimicking population bottlenecks, revealed that both recombinant viruses and HXB2 reference virus were able to select mutations from different resistance pathways, although typically only one resistance pathway emerged in each individual culture. Conclusions: The generation of a specific raltegravir resistant variant is not predisposed in the genetic background of the viral integrase CDS. Typically, in the early phases of therapy failure the sequence space is explored and multiple resistance pathways emerge and then compete for dominance which frequently results in a switch of the dominant population over time towards the fittest variant or even multiple variants of similar fitness that can coexist in the viral population

Identifying cardiac syncope based on clinical history : a literature-based model tested in four independent datasets

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and test a literature-based model for symptoms that associate with cardiac causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: Seven studies (the derivation sample) reporting 652 predictors of cardiac syncope were identified (4 Italian, 1 Swiss, 1 Canadian, and 1 from the United States). From these, 10 criteria were identified as diagnostic predictors. The conditional probability of each predictor was calculated by summation of the reported frequencies. A model of conditional probabilities and a priori probabilities of cardiac syncope was constructed. The model was tested in four datasets of patients with syncope (the test sample) from Calgary (n=670; 21% had cardiac syncope), Amsterdam (n=503; 9%), Milan (n=689; 5%) and Rochester (3877; 11%). In the derivation sample ten variables were significantly associated with cardiac syncope: age, gender, structural heart disease, low number of spells, brief or absent prodrome, supine syncope, effort syncope, and absence of nausea, diaphoresis and blurred vision. Fitting the test datasets to the full model gave C-statistics of 0.87 (Calgary), 0.84 (Amsterdam), 0.72 (Milan) and 0.71 (Rochester). Model sensitivity and specificity were 92% and 68% for Calgary, 86% and 67% for Amsterdam, 76% and 59% for Milan, and 73% and 52% for Rochester. A model with 5 variables (age, gender, structural heart disease, low number of spells, and lack of prodromal symptoms) was as accurate as the total set. CONCLUSION: A simple literature-based Bayesian model of historical criteria can distinguish patients with cardiac syncope from other patients with syncope with moderate accuracy

Predictors of injury mortality: Findings from a large national cohort in Thailand

Objective: To present predictors of injury mortality by types of injury and by pre-existing attributes or other individual exposures identified at baseline

The relationship between SF-6D utility scores and lifestyle factors across three life-stages: Evidence from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health

Purpose: To investigate how SF-6D utility scores change with age between generations of women, and to quantify the relationship of SF-6D with lifestyle factors across life-stages. Methods: Up to seven waves of self-reported, longitudinal data were drawn for the 1973-78 (young, N=13772), 1946-51 (mid-age, N=12792), 1921-26 (older, N=9972) cohorts from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Mixed effects models were employed for analysis. Results: Young and mid-age women had similar average SF-6D scores at baseline (0.63-0.64), which remained consistent over 16 year period. However, older women had lower scores at baseline at 0.57 which steadily declined over 15 years. Across cohorts, low education attainment, greater difficulty in managing on income, obesity, physical inactivity, heavy smoking, non-drinking and increasing stress levels were associated with lower SF-6D scores. The magnitude of effect varied between cohorts. SF-6D scores were lower amongst young women with high risk drinking behaviours than low-risk drinkers. Mid-age women who were underweight, never married, or underwent surgical menopause also reported lower SF-6D scores. Older women who lived in remote areas, who were ex-smokers, or were underweight reported lower SF-6D scores. Conclusion: The SF-6D utility score is sensitive to differences in lifestyle factors across adult lifestages. Gradual loss of physical functioning may explain the steady decline in health for older women. Key factors associated with SF-6D include physical activity, body mass index, menopause status, smoking, alcohol use and stress. Factors associated with poorer SF-6D scores vary in type and magnitude at different life stages

General practitioners knowledge and management of whiplash associated disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder: Implications for patient care

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: In Australia, general practitioners (GPs) see around two-thirds of people injured in road traffic crashes. Road traffic crash injuries are commonly associated with diverse physical and psychological symptoms that may be difficult to diagnose and manage. Clinical guidelines have been developed to assist in delivering quality, consistent care, however the extent to which GPs knowledge and practice in diagnosing and managing road traffic crash injuries concords with the guidelines is unknown. This study aimed to explore Australian GPs knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding the diagnosis and management of road traffic crash injuries, specifically whiplash associated disorders (WAD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Method: A cross-sectional survey of 423 GPs across Australia conducted between July and December 2014. We developed a questionnaire to assess their knowledge of WAD and PTSD, confidence in diagnosing and managing WAD and PTSD, frequency of referral to health providers, barriers to referral, and attitudes towards further education and training. Factor analysis, Spearman's correlation, and multiple ordered logistic regressions were performed. Results: Overall, GPs have good level knowledge of WAD and PTSD; only 9.6 % (95 % CI: 7.1 %, 12.8 %) and 23.9 % (95 % CI: 20.8 %, 28.2 %) of them were deemed to have lower level knowledge of WAD and PTSD respectively. Key knowledge gaps included imaging indicators for WAD and indicators for psychological referral for PTSD. GPs who were male, with more years of experience, working in the urban area and with higher knowledge level of WAD were more confident in diagnosing and managing WAD. Only GPs PTSD knowledge level predicted confidence in diagnosing and managing PTSD. GPs most commonly referred to physiotherapists and least commonly to vocational rehabilitation providers. Barriers to referral included out-of-pocket costs incurred by patients and long waiting times. Most GPs felt positive towards further education on road traffic crash injury management. Conclusion: This study has enhanced understanding of the knowledge skills and attitudes of GPs towards road traffic crash injury care in Australia, and has identified areas for further education and training. If delivered, this training has the potential to reduce unnecessary imaging for WAD and optimise the early referral of patients at risk of delayed recovery following a road traffic crash

Chemokines in cerebrospinal fluid correlate with cerebral metabolite patterns in HIV-infected individuals

Chemokines influence HIV neuropathogenesis by affecting the HIV life cycle, trafficking of macrophages into the nervous system, glial activation, and neuronal signaling and repair processes; however, knowledge of their relationship to in vivo measures of cerebral injury is limited. The primary objective of this study was to determine the relationship between a panel of chemokines in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and cerebral metabolites measured by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals. One hundred seventy-one stored CSF specimens were assayed from HIV-infected individuals who were enrolled in two ACTG studies that evaluated the relationship between neuropsychological performance and cerebral metabolites. Concentrations of six chemokines (fractalkine, IL-8, IP-10, MCP-1, MIP-1β, and SDF-1) were measured and compared with cerebral metabolites individually and as composite neuronal, basal ganglia, and inflammatory patterns. IP-10 and MCP-1 were the chemokines most strongly associated with individual cerebral metabolites. Specifically, (1) higher IP-10 levels correlated with lower N-acetyl aspartate (NAA)/creatine (Cr) ratios in the frontal white matter and higher MI/Cr ratios in all three brain regions considered and (2) higher MCP-1 levels correlated with lower NAA/Cr ratios in frontal white matter and the parietal cortex. IP-10, MCP-1, and IL-8 had the strongest associations with patterns of cerebral metabolites. In particular, higher levels of IP-10 correlated with lower neuronal pattern scores and higher basal ganglia and inflammatory pattern scores, the same pattern which has been associated with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND). Subgroup analysis indicated that the effects of IP-10 and IL-8 were influenced by effective antiretroviral therapy and that memantine treatment may mitigate the neuronal effects of IP-10. This study supports the role of chemokines in HAND and the validity of MRS as an assessment tool. In particular, the findings identify relationships between the immune response—particularly an interferon-inducible chemokine, IP-10—and cerebral metabolites and suggest that antiretroviral therapy and memantine modify the impact of the immune response on neurons