A cost-effectiveness analysis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy sudden cardiac death risk algorithms for implantable cardioverter defibrillator decision-making

AIMS: To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). METHODS: A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon. CONCLUSION: We present a timely new perspective on HCM ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned

Prediction of thrombo-embolic risk in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-CVA)

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) and thrombo-embolism (TE) are associated with reduced survival in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the absolute risk of TE in patients with and without AF is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to derive and validate a model for estimating the risk of TE in HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to determine predictors of TE, the performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score, and outcome with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Methods and results A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of seven institutions was used to develop multivariable Cox regression models fitted with pre-selected predictors. Bootstrapping was used for validation. Of 4821 HCM patients recruited between 1986 and 2008, 172 (3.6%) reached the primary endpoint of cerebrovascular accident (CVA), transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or systemic peripheral embolus within 10 years. A total of 27.5% of patients had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0, of whom 9.8% developed TE during follow-up. Cox regression revealed an association between TE and age, AF, the interaction between age and AF, TE prior to first evaluation, NYHA class, left atrial (LA) diameter, vascular disease, and maximal LV wall thickness. There was a curvilinear relationship between LA size and TE risk. The model predicted TE with a C-index of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.80] and the D-statistic was 1.30 (95% CI 1.05-1.56). VKA treatment was associated with a 54.8% (95% CI 31-97%, P = 0.037) relative risk reduction in HCM patients with AF. Conclusions The study shows that the risk of TE in HCM patients can be identified using a small number of simple clinical features. LA size, in particular, should be monitored closely, and the assessment and treatment of conventional vascular risk factors should be routine practice in older patients. Exploratory analyses show for the first time evidence for a reduction of TE with VKA treatment. The CHA2DS2-VASc score does not appear to correlate well with the clinical outcome in patients with HCM and should not be used to assess TE risk in this population

Effectiveness of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guideline on sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective In 2014, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommended the use of a novel risk prediction model (HCM Risk-SCD) to guide use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We sought to determine the performance of HCM Risk-SCD by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of articles reporting on the prevalence of SCD within 5 years of evaluation in low, intermediate and high-risk patients as defined by the 2014 guidelines (predicted risk <4%, 4%–<6% and ≥6%, respectively). Methods The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42017064203). MEDLINE and manual searches for papers published from October 2014 to December 2017 were performed. Longitudinal, observational cohorts of unselected adult patients, without history of cardiac arrest were considered. The original HCM Risk-SCD development study was included a priori. Data were pooled using a random effects model. Results Six (0.9%) out of 653 independent publications identified by the initial search were included. The calculated 5-year risk of SCD was reported in 7291 individuals (70% low, 15% intermediate; 15% high risk) with 184 (2.5%) SCD endpoints within 5 years of baseline evaluation. Most SCD endpoints (68%) occurred in patients with an estimated 5-year risk of ≥4% who formed 30% of the total study cohort. Using the random effects method, the pooled prevalence of SCD endpoints was 1.01% (95% CI 0.52 to 1.61) in low-risk patients, 2.43% (95% CI 1.23 to 3.92) in intermediate and 8.4% (95% CI 6.68 to 10.25) in high-risk patients. Conclusions This meta-analysis demonstrates that HCM Risk-SCD provides accurate risk estimations that can be used to guide ICD therapy in accordance with the 2014 ESC guidelines. Registration number PROSPERO CRD42017064203;Pre-results.pre-print379 K

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to &lt;90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], &gt;300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of &lt;15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P&lt;0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P&lt;0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

Impact of common cardio-metabolic risk factors on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Latin America and the Caribbean: an individual-level pooled analysis of 31 cohort studies

Background: Estimates of the burden of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) rely on relative risks (RRs) from non-LAC countries. Whether these RRs apply to LAC remains un- known. Methods: We pooled LAC cohorts. We estimated RRs per unit of exposure to body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC) and non-HDL cholesterol on fatal (31 cohorts, n = 168,287) and non-fatal (13 cohorts, n = 27,554) cardiovascular diseases, adjusting for regression dilution bias. We used these RRs and national data on mean risk factor levels to estimate the number of cardiovascular deaths attributable to non-optimal levels of each risk factor. Results: Our RRs for SBP, FPG and TC were like those observed in cohorts conducted in high-income countries; however, for BMI, our RRs were consistently smaller in people below 75 years of age. Across risk factors, we observed smaller RRs among older ages. Non-optimal SBP was responsible for the largest number of attributable cardiovascular deaths ranging from 38 per 10 0,0 0 0 women and 54 men in Peru, to 261 (Dominica, women) and 282 (Guyana, men). For non-HDL cholesterol, the lowest attributable rate was for women in Peru (21) and men in Guatemala (25), and the largest in men (158) and women (142) from Guyana. Interpretation: RRs for BMI from studies conducted in high-income countries may overestimate disease burden metrics in LAC; conversely, RRs for SBP, FPG and TC from LAC cohorts are similar to those esti- mated from cohorts in high-income countries

Enhancing rare variant interpretation in inherited arrhythmias through quantitative analysis of consortium disease cohorts and population controls.

PURPOSE: Stringent variant interpretation guidelines can lead to high rates of variants of uncertain significance (VUS) for genetically heterogeneous disease like long QT syndrome (LQTS) and Brugada syndrome (BrS). Quantitative and disease-specific customization of American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) guidelines can address this false negative rate. METHODS: We compared rare variant frequencies from 1847 LQTS (KCNQ1/KCNH2/SCN5A) and 3335 BrS (SCN5A) cases from the International LQTS/BrS Genetics Consortia to population-specific gnomAD data and developed disease-specific criteria for ACMG/AMP evidence classes-rarity (PM2/BS1 rules) and case enrichment of individual (PS4) and domain-specific (PM1) variants. RESULTS: Rare SCN5A variant prevalence differed between European (20.8%) and Japanese (8.9%) BrS patients (p = 5.7 × 10-18) and diagnosis with spontaneous (28.7%) versus induced (15.8%) Brugada type 1 electrocardiogram (ECG) (p = 1.3 × 10-13). Ion channel transmembrane regions and specific N-terminus (KCNH2) and C-terminus (KCNQ1/KCNH2) domains were characterized by high enrichment of case variants and >95% probability of pathogenicity. Applying the customized rules, 17.4% of European BrS and 74.8% of European LQTS cases had (likely) pathogenic variants, compared with estimated diagnostic yields (case excess over gnomAD) of 19.2%/82.1%, reducing VUS prevalence to close to background rare variant frequency. CONCLUSION: Large case-control data sets enable quantitative implementation of ACMG/AMP guidelines and increased sensitivity for inherited arrhythmia genetic testing

Genome-wide association analyses identify new Brugada syndrome risk loci and highlight a new mechanism of sodium channel regulation in disease susceptibility.

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a cardiac arrhythmia disorder associated with sudden death in young adults. With the exception of SCN5A, encoding the cardiac sodium channel Na1.5, susceptibility genes remain largely unknown. Here we performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis comprising 2,820 unrelated cases with BrS and 10,001 controls, and identified 21 association signals at 12 loci (10 new). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability estimates indicate a strong polygenic influence. Polygenic risk score analyses based on the 21 susceptibility variants demonstrate varying cumulative contribution of common risk alleles among different patient subgroups, as well as genetic associations with cardiac electrical traits and disorders in the general population. The predominance of cardiac transcription factor loci indicates that transcriptional regulation is a key feature of BrS pathogenesis. Furthermore, functional studies conducted on MAPRE2, encoding the microtubule plus-end binding protein EB2, point to microtubule-related trafficking effects on Na1.5 expression as a new underlying molecular mechanism. Taken together, these findings broaden our understanding of the genetic architecture of BrS and provide new insights into its molecular underpinnings