Comparison of Two Detailed Models of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

The success of control programs for mosquito-­borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-­by-­side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito?s biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbedconditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivityto environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions.Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (director delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions.Fil: Legros, Mathieu. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gould, Fred. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Lloyd, Alun L.. National Institutes of Health; Estados Unido

Complex population dynamics as a competition between multiple time-scale phenomena

The role of the selection pressure and mutation amplitude on the behavior of a single-species population evolving on a two-dimensional lattice, in a periodically changing environment, is studied both analytically and numerically. The mean-field level of description allows to highlight the delicate interplay between the different time-scale processes in the resulting complex dynamics of the system. We clarify the influence of the amplitude and period of the environmental changes on the critical value of the selection pressure corresponding to a phase-transition "extinct-alive" of the population. However, the intrinsic stochasticity and the dynamically-built in correlations among the individuals, as well as the role of the mutation-induced variety in population's evolution are not appropriately accounted for. A more refined level of description, which is an individual-based one, has to be considered. The inherent fluctuations do not destroy the phase transition "extinct-alive", and the mutation amplitude is strongly influencing the value of the critical selection pressure. The phase diagram in the plane of the population's parameters -- selection and mutation is discussed as a function of the environmental variation characteristics. The differences between a smooth variation of the environment and an abrupt, catastrophic change are also addressesd.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

China\u27s hegemonic intentions and trajectory: Will it opt for benevolent, coercive, or Dutch‐style hegemony?

China\u27s unprecedented economic growth led some scholars to conclude that it will replace the United States as the future global hegemon. However, China\u27s intentions in exercising future global leadership are yet unknown and difficult to extrapolate from its often contradictory behaviour. A preliminary overview of China\u27s island building in the South China Sea reveals its potentially coercive intentions. This inference is consistent with the analysis of those who prognosticate China\u27s violent rise. Conversely and simultaneously, China\u27s participation in peacekeeping operations and its global investments evince its benevolent hegemonic intentions, which are congruent with the argument of those who predict China\u27s peaceful hegemonic ascent. Confronted with these divergent tendencies in China\u27s recent international relations, and assuming its continued rise, it is, thus, essential to examine China\u27s strategic intentions and how these may ultimately project its violent or peaceful hegemonic rise. This article argues that the “Third Way” or “Dutch‐style” hegemony is highly instructive in this context and, thus, should be examined and added to the existing debate on China\u27s rise as either a benevolent or coercive hegemon. We argue that Dutch‐style hegemony may be the most viable way for China to proceed in its global hegemonic ascendancy

Ecological equivalence: a realistic assumption for niche theory as a testable alternative to neutral theory

Hubbell's 2001 neutral theory unifies biodiversity and biogeography by modelling steady-state distributions of species richness and abundances across spatio-temporal scales. Accurate predictions have issued from its core premise that all species have identical vital rates. Yet no ecologist believes that species are identical in reality. Here I explain this paradox in terms of the ecological equivalence that species must achieve at their coexistence equilibrium, defined by zero net fitness for all regardless of intrinsic differences between them. I show that the distinction of realised from intrinsic vital rates is crucial to evaluating community resilience. An analysis of competitive interactions reveals how zero-sum patterns of abundance emerge for species with contrasting life-history traits as for identical species. I develop a stochastic model to simulate community assembly from a random drift of invasions sustaining the dynamics of recruitment following deaths and extinctions. Species are allocated identical intrinsic vital rates for neutral dynamics, or random intrinsic vital rates and competitive abilities for niche dynamics either on a continuous scale or between dominant-fugitive extremes. Resulting communities have steady-state distributions of the same type for more or less extremely differentiated species as for identical species. All produce negatively skewed log-normal distributions of species abundance, zero-sum relationships of total abundance to area, and Arrhenius relationships of species to area. Intrinsically identical species nevertheless support fewer total individuals, because their densities impact as strongly on each other as on themselves. Truly neutral communities have measurably lower abundance/area and higher species/abundance ratios. Neutral scenarios can be parameterized as null hypotheses for testing competitive release, which is a sure signal of niche dynamics. Ignoring the true strength of interactions between and within species risks a substantial misrepresentation of community resilience to habitat los

A comparison of experimental procedures for the application of infrared spectroscopy to probe the surface morphology of an alumina-supported palladium catalyst

Structure/function relationships in heterogeneous catalysis play an important role in catalyst design strategies. The combination of chemisorption of suitable probe molecules alongside application of infrared spectroscopy is an established technique for providing information on the metal crystallite morphology of supported metal catalysts. Following a review of key literature on this topic, a variety of experimental arrangements that may be adopted for this task are examined. Specifically, the adsorption of CO over a 5wt% Pd/Al2O3 catalyst is investigated using transmission and diffuse reflectance sampling options and two research grade spectrometers. Although comparable spectra are obtained on all the platforms examined, differences are noted. In particular, temperature-programmed IR spectroscopy on one platform enables resolution of two features assigned to linear CO bound to the Pd particles. The relevance of this sub-division of terminal sites with respect to selective hydrogenation reactions is briefly considered

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately. Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e., nonadditive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarize the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners to better minimize risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions

A theoretical and experimental investigation of smooth- and wavy ice layers in laminar and turbulent flow inside an asymmetrically cooled parallel-plate channel

The present paper shows the adaption of the numerical model originally developed by Weigand and Beer [14] for calculating steady-state ice layers inside an asymmetrically cooled parallel-plate channel. The investigation shows the characteristics in ice formation behaviour due to asymmetrically cooled walls. Further, a simple analytical model is presented for calculating smooth ice layers in turbulent flow. The study is supported by own measurements of the freezing fronts inside an asymmetrically cooled channel. A comparison between theoretical calculations and measurements shows generally good agreement.Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Anwendung des von Weigand und Beer [14] entwickelten, numerischen Modells zur Vorhersage von Eisschichten in einem ebenen, asymmetrisch gekühlten Kanal. Die Studie befaßt sich mit den Unterschieden in der Eisschichtbildung aufgrund der asymmetrisch gekühlten Kanalwände. Weiterhin wird ein einfaches Verfahren angegeben, mit dem sich die Gestalt von glatten Eisschichten bei turbulenter Strömung und asymmetrischer Kühlung sehr einfach berechnen läßt. Die analytisch und numerisch gewonnenen Resultate werden anschließend mit eigenen Messungen von Eisschichten verglichen, wobei eine im allgemeinen gute Übereinstimmung zwischen Theorie und Experiment zu beobachten ist

Mating patterns influence vulnerability to the extinction vortex

Earth's biodiversity is undergoing mass extinction due to anthropogenic compounding of environmental, demographic and genetic stresses. These different stresses can trap populations within a reinforcing feedback loop known as the extinction vortex, in which synergistic pressures build upon one another through time, driving down population viability. Sexual selection, the widespread evolutionary force arising from competition, choice and reproductive variance within animal mating patterns could have vital consequences for population viability and the extinction vortex: (a) if sexual selection reinforces natural selection to fix ‘good genes’ and purge ‘bad genes’, then mating patterns encouraging competition and choice may help protect populations from extinction; (b) by contrast, if mating patterns create load through evolutionary or ecological conflict, then population viability could be further reduced by sexual selection. We test between these opposing theories using replicate populations of the model insect Tribolium castaneum exposed to over 10 years of experimental evolution under monogamous versus polyandrous mating patterns. After a 95‐generation history of divergence in sexual selection, we compared fitness and extinction of monogamous versus polyandrous populations through an experimental extinction vortex comprising 15 generations of cycling environmental and genetic stresses. Results showed that lineages from monogamous evolutionary backgrounds, with limited opportunities for sexual selection, showed rapid declines in fitness and complete extinction through the vortex. By contrast, fitness of populations from the history of polyandry, with stronger opportunities for sexual selection, declined slowly, with 60% of populations surviving by the study end. The three vortex stresses of (a) nutritional deprivation, (b) thermal stress and (c) genetic bottlenecking had similar impacts on fitness declines and extinction risk, with an overall sigmoid decline in survival through time. We therefore reveal sexual selection as an important force behind lineages facing extinction threats, identifying the relevance of natural mating patterns for conservation management