Developing an Observing Air–Sea Interactions Strategy (OASIS) for the global ocean

The Observing Air–Sea Interactions Strategy (OASIS) is a new United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development programme working to develop a practical, integrated approach for observing air–sea interactions globally for improved Earth system (including ecosystem) forecasts, CO2 uptake assessments called for by the Paris Agreement, and invaluable surface ocean information for decision makers. Our “Theory of Change” relies upon leveraged multi-disciplinary activities, partnerships, and capacity strengthening. Recommendations from >40 OceanObs’19 community papers and a series of workshops have been consolidated into three interlinked Grand Ideas for creating #1: a globally distributed network of mobile air–sea observing platforms built around an expanded array of long-term time-series stations; #2: a satellite network, with high spatial and temporal resolution, optimized for measuring air–sea fluxes; and #3: improved representation of air–sea coupling in a hierarchy of Earth system models. OASIS activities are organized across five Theme Teams: (1) Observing Network Design & Model Improvement; (2) Partnership & Capacity Strengthening; (3) UN Decade OASIS Actions; (4) Best Practices & Interoperability Experiments; and (5) Findable–Accessible–Interoperable–Reusable (FAIR) models, data, and OASIS products. Stakeholders, including researchers, are actively recruited to participate in Theme Teams to help promote a predicted, safe, clean, healthy, resilient, and productive ocean.publishedVersio

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

Ekman layers in the Southern Ocean: spectral models and observations, vertical viscosity and boundary layer depth

Spectral characteristics of the oceanic boundary-layer response to wind stress forcing are assessed by comparing surface drifter observations from the Southern Ocean to a suite of idealized models that parameterize the vertical flux of horizontal momentum using a first-order turbulence closure scheme. The models vary in their representation of vertical viscosity and boundary conditions. Each is used to derive a theoretical transfer function for the spectral linear response of the ocean to wind stress. The transfer functions are evaluated using observational data. The ageostrophic component of near-surface velocity is computed by subtracting altimeter-derived geostrophic velocities from observed drifter velocities (nominally drogued to represent motions at 15-m depth). Then the transfer function is computed to link these ageostrophic velocities to observed wind stresses. The traditional Ekman model, with infinite depth and constant vertical viscosity is among the worst of the models considered in this study. The model that most successfully describes the variability in the drifter data has a shallow layer of depth O(30–50 m), in which the viscosity is constant and O(100–1000m2 s−1), with a no-slip bottom boundary condition. The second best model has a vertical viscosity with a surface value O(200m2 s−1), which increases linearly with depth at a rate O(0.1–1 cm s−1) and a no-slip boundary condition at the base of the boundary layer of depth O(103 m). The best model shows little latitudinal or seasonal variability, and there is no obvious link to wind stress or climatological mixed-layer depth. In contrast, in the second best model, the linear coefficient and the boundary layer depth seem to covary with wind stress. The depth of the boundary layer for this model is found to be unphysically large at some latitudes and seasons, possibly a consequence of the inability of Ekman models to remove energy from the system by other means than shear-induced dissipation. However, the Ekman depth scale appears to scale like the climatological mixed-layer depth

The Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is the expanse of ocean encircling the Antarctic continent. Often it is defined as all ocean areas south of 35°S (e.g., Chelton et al. 1990) or 40°S (e.g., Mestas-Nuñez et al. 1992). Because of its vast size, encompassing nearly 30% of the global ocean, because of its notoriously strong wind and wave conditions, and because it is nearly unbroken by land, the Southern Ocean is difficult to monitor from ships. Sea surface height (SSH) measurements from satellite altimetry have proved crucial in characterizing both the time-mean features and the variability of the region

Multiple oscillatory modes of the Argentine Basin. Part I. Statistical analysis

Observations of the sea surface height in the Argentine Basin indicate that strong variability occurs on a time scale of 20−30 days. The aim of this study is to determine the physical processes responsible for this variability. First, results are presented from two statistical techniques applied to a decade of altimetric data. A complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis identifies the recently discovered dipole mode as the dominant mode of variability. A principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis confirms the existence of this mode, which has a period of 25 days. The second CEOF displays a propagating pattern in the northern Argentine Basin, plus a rotating dipole in the southwest corner. The POP analysis identifies both patterns as individual modes, with periods of 30 and 20 days, respectively. Second, the barotropic normal modes of the Argentine Basin are studied, using a shallow-water model capturing the full bathymetry of the basin. Coherences between the spatial patterns of these modes and altimeter data suggest that several of the basin modes are involved in the observed variability. This analysis implies that the 20-day mode detected by recent bottom-pressure measurements is a true barotropic mode. However, the 25-day variability, as found in altimeter data, cannot be directly attributed to the excitation of a free Rossby basin mode. This study indicates that the results of several apparently conflicting observations of the flow variability in the Argentine Basin can be reconciled by assuming that multiple basin modes are involved

Multiple oscillatory modes of the Argentine Basin. Part II. The spectral origin of the basin modes

In this paper the spectrum of barotropic basin modes of the Argentine Basin is shown to be connected to the classical Rossby basin modes of a flat-bottom (constant depth), rectangular basin. First, the spectrum of basin modes is calculated for the Argentine Basin, by performing a normal-mode analysis of the barotropic shallow-water equations. Then a homotopy transformation is performed that gradually morphs the full-bathymetry geometry through a flat-bottom configuration into a rectangular basin. Following the eigenmodes through this transition establishes a connection between most of the basin modes and the classical Rossby basin modes of a rectangular geometry. In particular, the 20-day mode of the Argentine Basin is identified with the lowest-order mode of classical theory. Sensitivity studies show that the decay rate of each mode is controlled by bottom friction, but that it is insensitive to lateral friction; lateral friction strongly impacts the oscillation frequency. In addition, the modes are found to be only slightly sensitive to the presence of a background flow

Observations to Quantify Air-Sea Fluxes and Their Role in Climate Variability and Predictability

Flux products quantifying exchanges between ocean and atmosphere are needed for forcing models, understanding ocean dynamics, investigating the ocean’s role in climate, and assessing coupled models. Research experiments are essential to improve flux parameterizations, and longer research deployments are required to sample rare events. Urgently needed technological improvements include longer battery life, more robust sensors and improvement of sensors for humidity, precipitation and direct gas and particle fluxes. A range of different flux products are needed, incorporating data from ships, satellites and models in different combinations and using different methods. All products must be characterized with uncertainty estimates. Dataset validation requires high quality observations from ocean flux reference sites and from ships. The continued development of flux products from satellites provides much-needed sampling. Continual intercomparisons among products and with high quality observations will lead to improved flux datasets, while improvements to the flux data management system would facilitate these intercomparisons

Developing an Observing Air–Sea Interactions Strategy (OASIS) for the global ocean

The Observing Air–Sea Interactions Strategy (OASIS) is a new United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development programme working to develop a practical, integrated approach for observing air–sea interactions globally for improved Earth system (including ecosystem) forecasts, CO2 uptake assessments called for by the Paris Agreement, and invaluable surface ocean information for decision makers. Our “Theory of Change” relies upon leveraged multi-disciplinary activities, partnerships, and capacity strengthening. Recommendations from >40 OceanObs’19 community papers and a series of workshops have been consolidated into three interlinked Grand Ideas for creating #1: a globally distributed network of mobile air–sea observing platforms built around an expanded array of long-term time-series stations; #2: a satellite network, with high spatial and temporal resolution, optimized for measuring air–sea fluxes; and #3: improved representation of air–sea coupling in a hierarchy of Earth system models. OASIS activities are organized across five Theme Teams: (1) Observing Network Design & Model Improvement; (2) Partnership & Capacity Strengthening; (3) UN Decade OASIS Actions; (4) Best Practices & Interoperability Experiments; and (5) Findable–Accessible–Interoperable–Reusable (FAIR) models, data, and OASIS products. Stakeholders, including researchers, are actively recruited to participate in Theme Teams to help promote a predicted, safe, clean, healthy, resilient, and productive ocean