Evaluating CAP alternative policy scenarios through a system dynamics approach in rural areas of Greece

Current considerations for the post-2013 CAP create the need for the investigation and evaluation of alternative CAP scenarios and their effects on agriculture, environment and regional development in EU rural areas. To this end, a system-dynamics model is developed and utilized to evaluate the impacts of alternative CAP scenarios in a Greek rural area (prefecture of Trikala). This particular model features four basic subsystems (agriculture, environment, regional economy and human resources) specified and analyzed through a linear programming model, a dynamic input-output model and an age-cohort demographic model, respectively. Four alternative policy scenarios are specified, dealing with possible developments on Pillars 1 and 2. Model simulations produce scenario-specific effects for the 2007-2013 period, and up to 2020 in the form of changes in land use and farm output, environmental indicators associated with farm activity, economy-wide impacts and impacts on local population. Results show that different future orientations for the CAP are associated with different impacts on agricultural activity, the environment and total economic activity in this area. A reduction of Pillar 1 funds and a dedication of Pillar 2 spending on Axis 2 generate negative effects on local agriculture, but benefit the local environment and economy-wide incomes. On the other hand, a more “productive” orientation of Pillar 2 positively affects local employment (compared to the current CAP) but does not create any positive or negative effects on the environment of this regionCAP, policy impact assessment, rural development, system dynamics, Agricultural and Food Policy, C61, C67, Q18, R58,

Soil Functions & Ecosystem Services

In order to fulfil RECARE’s aim to quantify in a harmonized, spatially explicit way impacts of degradation and conservation on soil functions and ecosystem services, it is important to understand the concept and review the current scientific debate. This will lay the foundation for the development and selection of appropriate methods to measure, evaluate, communicate and negotiate the services we obtain from soils with stakeholders in order to improve land management. Despite various research activities in the last decades across the world, many challenges remain to integrate the concept of ecosystem services (ES) in decision-making, and a coherent approach to assess and value ES is still lacking (de Groot et al., 2010). There are many different, often context-specific, ES frameworks with their own definitions and understanding of terms. This chapter therefore aims to identify the state of the art and knowledge gaps in order to develop an operational framework of the ES concept for the RECARE project. It will provide an overview on existing soil functions and ES frameworks and on approaches to monitor and value ES, with a special focus on soil aspects. Furthermore, it will address the question how the ES concept is operationalized in research projects and land management in Europe so far. Based on this review, the chapter concludes with a suggestion of an adapted ES framework for RECARE and on how to operationalize it for practical application in preventing and remediating degradation of soils in Europe

Soil Functions & Ecosystem Services

In order to fulfil RECARE’s aim to quantify in a harmonized, spatially explicit way impacts of degradation and conservation on soil functions and ecosystem services, it is important to understand the concept and review the current scientific debate. This will lay the foundation for the development and selection of appropriate methods to measure, evaluate, communicate and negotiate the services we obtain from soils with stakeholders in order to improve land management. Despite various research activities in the last decades across the world, many challenges remain to integrate the concept of ecosystem services (ES) in decision-making, and a coherent approach to assess and value ES is still lacking (de Groot et al., 2010). There are many different, often context-specific, ES frameworks with their own definitions and understanding of terms. This chapter therefore aims to identify the state of the art and knowledge gaps in order to develop an operational framework of the ES concept for the RECARE project. It will provide an overview on existing soil functions and ES frameworks and on approaches to monitor and value ES, with a special focus on soil aspects. Furthermore, it will address the question how the ES concept is operationalized in research projects and land management in Europe so far. Based on this review, the chapter concludes with a suggestion of an adapted ES framework for RECARE and on how to operationalize it for practical application in preventing and remediating degradation of soils in Europe

A participatory approach for adapting river basins to climate change

Climate change is expected to reduce water availability in the Mediterranean region and water management needs to adapt to future conditions. The aims of this study were (1) to develop a participatory approach for identifying and evaluating management options for river basin climate adaptation and (2) to apply and evaluate the approach in four case-study river basins across the Mediterranean. As part of the approach, a diverse group of stakeholders joined a series of workshops and consultations in four river basins located in Cyprus, Slovenia, Spain and Tunisia. In each river basin, stakeholders expressed their views on challenges in their river basins, as well as options to tackle these challenges. We used the information on challenges, as well as the factors contributing to these challenges to develop a fuzzy cognitive map for each basin. These maps were converted into mathematical models and were used to assess the impact of a total of 102 suggested management options for the four river basins. We linked the options and their estimated impacts with a multi-criteria analysis to identify the most preferred options. The approach was positively evaluated by the participating stakeholders and allowed the link of stakeholders' knowledge and perceptions about their river basin with their preferences for options to adapt the management of their river basins to future conditions

Maritime transport and regional climate change impacts in large EU islands and archipelagos

Maritime transport is a vital sector for global trade and the world economy. Particularly for islands, there is also an important social dimension of this sector, since island communities strongly rely on it for a connection with the mainland and the transportation of goods and passengers. Furthermore, islands are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, as the rising sea level and extreme events are expected to induce severe impacts. Such hazards are anticipated to also affect the operations of the maritime transport sector by affecting either the port infrastructure or ships en route. The present study is an effort to better comprehend and assess the future risk of maritime transport disruption in six European islands and archipelagos, and it aims at supporting regional to local policy and decision-making. We employ state-of-the-art regional climate datasets and the widely used impact chain approach to identify the different components that might drive such risks. Larger islands (e.g., Corsica, Cyprus and Crete) are found to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change on maritime operations. Our findings also highlight the importance of adopting a low-emission pathway, since this will keep the risk of maritime transport disruption similar to present levels or even slightly decreased for some islands because of an enhanced adaptation capacity and advantageous demographic changes.Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.This work has received funding from the European Union’s H2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 776661 (SOCLIMPACT project). It was also supported by the EMME-CARE project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 856612, as well as matching co-funding by the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.Peer reviewe

Multifunctional agriculture and rural development

This thesis is an attempt to investigate the complex relationships and interactions of the agricultural sector and the regional economic development. The basic aim of the thesis is to investigate and quantify the linkages of the multiple functions of agriculture and the development of rural areas and assess the impact of policy changes implemented in rural areas to the above relationships. The investigation of relationships and linkages between market and non-market functions of agriculture, rural areas viability and policies is done through a system dynamics approach for the Prefecture of Trikala. Through this analytical tool, a computable model was developed, which consists of five subsystems: the regional economy subsystem, the agriculture subsystem, the human resources subsystem, the policy subsystem and the outcome indicators subsystem, which are linked and feedback each other. The thesis’ innovation is mainly the holistic approach of linkages of multiple functions of agriculture to spatial development of rural areas examining its economic, social, demographic and environmental performance. For the quantification of the above relationships, a ‘multimodeling’ approach was adopted which combine complex methods of regional analysis. Particularly, for the regional economy subsystem there was constructed a regional dynamic input-output model with the use of GRIT technique, which imprints the linkages and interrelationships of economic sectors on time, providing also the capability of quantification of policy changes implemented in rural areas in terms of product, employment and income through the estimated multipliers. The agricultural sector of the input-output table, in the context of survey data gathered, was disaggregated into four farming systems, which prevail in study area according to altitude and land type and which are: extensive arable crops, extensive livestock, intensive arable crops and other agricultural systems. The analysis of market and non-market functions of agriculture is carried out through a regional arable crops supply model with the use of linear programming technique. This method allows the impact analysis of agricultural policy (CAP) to the optimal levels of land uses and the production level of private and public goods of agriculture. These public goods are imprinted and quantified with the use of three environmental indicators: biodiversity index, water quality index and Shannon index. Agriculture subsystem links to regional economy subsystem by exogenising the farming systems of arable crops. As a result the regional economy subsystem is demand driven for regionally produced products and services, while agriculture subsystem is supply driven. Human resources subsystem is specified through a demographic model which projects population, employment and migration evolution as basic indicators of the study area’s viability while it links with the subsystems of regional economy and agriculture for labour demand and migration projection. In the policy subsystem, there are specified policies implemented in rural areas (Pillar 1, Pillar 2 and regional policies). In total, seven policy scenarios are specified, the simulation and impact analysis of which imprint those policies that influence positively the multifunctional character of local agriculture in terms both of its environmental performance and wider rural development. The simulation of the alternative policy scenarios shows that the reinforcement of Axis 2 for environmental protection creates the greater positive effects on the environment by strengthening the joint production of agriculture’s public goods. However, it affects negatively agricultural employment and generally the total employment and population maintenance in the study area. The promotion of diversification of economic activities in the context of Axis 3, affects positively regional development. The more significant positive changes on the local economy are created by the reinforcement of regional policies. Finally, reduction of Pillar 1 funds and reinforcement of Pillar 2 with full decoupling of subsidies, affects negatively the agricultural sector, benefits the environment while it has a marginal impact on the regional economy.Η διατριβή αποτελεί μια προσπάθεια διερεύνησης των σύνθετων σχέσεων και αλληλεξαρτήσεων του γεωργικού τομέα και της αγροτικής οικονομικής ανάπτυξης. Σκοπός της εργασίας είναι η διερεύνηση και ποσοτικοποίηση των διασυνδέσεων των πολλαπλών λειτουργιών της γεωργίας με την ευρύτερη ανάπτυξη των αγροτικών περιοχών και η ανάλυση των επιδράσεων των μεταβολών της Κοινής Αγροτικής Πολιτικής και των λοιπών πολιτικών που εφαρμόζονται στον αγροτικό χώρο στις ανωτέρω σχέσεις. Η διερεύνηση των σχέσεων και διασυνδέσεων των εμπορευματικών και μη-εμπορευματικών λειτουργιών της γεωργίας, της βιωσιμότητας των αγροτικών περιοχών και των εφαρμοζόμενων πολιτικών πραγματοποιείται με την προσέγγιση της δυναμικής ανάλυσης συστημάτων για το Νομό Τρικάλων. Με την υιοθέτηση του συγκεκριμένου αναλυτικού εργαλείου αναπτύχθηκε ένα υπολογιστικό υπόδειγμα, το οποίο αποτελείται από πέντε υποσυστήματα: υποσύστημα περιφερειακής οικονομίας, υποσύστημα γεωργίας, υποσύστημα ανθρώπινων πόρων, υποσύστημα πολιτικών, υποσύστημα δεικτών-εκροών, τα οποία διασυνδέονται και ανατροφοδοτούνται μεταξύ τους. Η καινοτομία της διατριβής έγκειται στην ολιστική προσέγγιση των διασυνδέσεων των πολλαπλών λειτουργιών της γεωργίας με την χωρική ανάπτυξη των αγροτικών περιοχών εξετάζοντας τις οικονομικές, κοινωνικές, δημογραφικές και περιβαλλοντικές επιδόσεις τους. Για την ποσοτική εκτίμηση των ανωτέρω σχέσεων και αλληλεξαρτήσεων υιοθετήθηκε μια ‘πολυμοντελική’ προσέγγιση και επελέγησαν σύνθετοι μέθοδοι περιφερειακής ανάλυσης. Συγκεκριμένα, για το υποσύστημα της περιφερειακής οικονομίας κατασκευάσθηκε ένα περιφερειακό δυναμικό υπόδειγμα Εισροών-Εκροών με τη χρήση της τεχνικής GRIT, το οποίο αποτυπώνει στο χρόνο τις διασυνδέσεις και αλληλεξαρτήσεις των κλάδων οικονομικής δραστηριότητας και παρέχει τη δυνατότητα ποσοτικής εκτίμησης σε όρους παραγόμενου προϊόντος, απασχόλησης και εισοδήματος των επιπτώσεων των μεταβολών των αναπτυξιακών πολιτικών για την τοπική οικονομία του Νομού Τρικάλων. Ο γεωργικός κλάδος του Πίνακα Εισροών-Εκροών στα πλαίσια συλλογής πρωτογενών δεδομένων αποομαδοποιήθηκε σε τέσσερα γεωργικά συστήματα, τα οποία επικρατούν στην περιοχή μελέτης ανάλογα με το υψόμετρο και το ανάγλυφο του εδάφους και τα οποία είναι: εκτατικές αροτραίες καλλιέργειες, εκτατική κτηνοτροφία, εντατικές αροτραίες καλλιέργειες και άλλα γεωργικά συστήματα. Η ανάλυση των εμπορευματικών και μη-εμπορευματικών λειτουργιών της γεωργίας πραγματοποιείται μέσω ενός περιφερειακού υποδείγματος προσφοράς αροτραίων καλλιεργειών με τη χρήση της τεχνικής του γραμμικού προγραμματισμού, το οποίο επιτρέπει την εξέταση των επιπτώσεων της αγροτικής πολιτικής στα άριστα επίπεδα χρήσεων γης και στο επίπεδο παραγωγής των ιδιωτικών αλλά και δημόσιων αγαθών της γεωργίας. Τα δημόσια αγαθά αποτυπώνονται και ποσοτικοποιούνται με τη χρήση τριών περιβαλλοντικών δεικτών: δείκτης βιοποικιλότητας, δείκτης ποιότητας υδάτων, δείκτης Shannon. Το υποσύστημα του γεωργικού τομέα διασυνδέεται με το υποσύστημα της περιφερειακής οικονομίας μέσω της εξωγενοποίησης των γεωργικών συστημάτων των αροτραίων καλλιεργειών που έχει ως αποτέλεσμα το υποσύστημα της περιφερειακής οικονομίας να είναι υποκινούμενο από τη ζήτηση για τοπικά παραγόμενα προϊόντα και υπηρεσίες, ενώ το υποσύστημα του γεωργικού τομέα να είναι υποκινούμενο από τη προσφορά γεωργικών προϊόντων. Το υποσύστημα των ανθρώπινων πόρων εξειδικεύεται με την κατασκευή ενός δημογραφικού υποδείγματος, το οποίο προσομοιώνει στο χρόνο την εξέλιξη του πληθυσμού, της απασχόλησης και της μετανάστευσης, ως βασικών δεικτών βιωσιμότητας της περιοχής μελέτης, ενώ διασυνδέεται με τα υποσυστήματα της περιφερειακής οικονομίας και της γεωργίας για τη προβολή της ζήτησης εργασίας και της μετανάστευσης. Στο υποσύστημα των πολιτικών εξειδικεύονται οι πολιτικές που ασκούνται στις αγροτικές περιοχές (Πυλώνας 1, Πυλώνας 2 και περιφερειακές πολιτικές). Συνολικά εξειδικεύονται επτά σενάρια πολιτικής, η προσομοίωση και ανάλυση επιπτώσεων των οποίων αποτυπώνει τις πολιτικές εκείνες που επιδρούν θετικά στον πολυλειτουργικό χαρακτήρα της τοπικής γεωργίας τόσο ως προς τις περιβαλλοντικές της επιδόσεις όσο και ως προς την ευρύτερη αγροτική ανάπτυξη. Η προσομοίωση των εναλλακτικών σεναρίων πολιτικής φανερώνει ότι ενίσχυση του Άξονα 2 για βελτίωση του περιβάλλοντος δημιουργεί τις μεγαλύτερες θετικές επιδράσεις στο περιβάλλον ενισχύοντας τη συνδεδεμένη παραγωγή των δημόσιων αγαθών της γεωργίας αλλά επιδρά αρνητικά στην γεωργική απασχόληση και γενικότερα στην απασχόληση και τη συγκράτηση του πληθυσμού. Η προώθηση της διαφοροποίησης της οικονομικής βάσης στα πλαίσια του Άξονα 3 επιδρά θετικά στην αγροτική ανάπτυξη ενώ η ενίσχυση της περιφερειακής πολιτικής (Διαρθρωτικά Ταμεία) δημιουργεί τις μεγαλύτερες θετικές επιδράσεις στην περιφερειακή οικονομία. Τέλος, μείωση των πόρων του Πυλώνα 1 και ενίσχυση του Πυλώνα 2 με πλήρη αποσύνδεση των ενισχύσεων, επιδρά αρνητικά στη τοπική γεωργία, ωφελεί το περιβάλλον ενώ οριακές είναι οι επιδράσεις στην τοπική οικονομία

Off-Farm Employment and Economic Crisis: Evidence from Cyprus

Off-farm employment is an important strategy for complementing farm household income and maintaining rural livelihoods. A multilevel logistic regression model was applied to investigate the effect of farm-level and regional-level factors on off-farm employment in Cyprus during the recent economic crisis period. The performance of nonfarm sectors positively affects off-farm employment; a one-percent increase in the share of the secondary and tertiary sector employment increases the likelihood of off-farm work by 9.5 times. The importance of location was also identified. Farm households located in rural areas are 70% less likely to engage in off-farm work than households located in urban areas. The positive effect of educational attainment and the negative effect of farm training confirmed the importance of human capital characteristics on off-farm labour participation. Farm structural factors are also significant determinants of off-farm employment. A one-hectare increase in the farm size decreases the odds of off-farm labour participation by 50%. Operators of crop farming holdings are 4.2 times more likely to work off the farm than operators of livestock and mixed-farming holdings. The results reveal the importance of adopting a multilevel and integrated approach for the analysis of off-farm employment