Scars of early non-employment for low educated youth: evidence and policy lessons from Belgium

This paper investigates whether the early experience of non-employment has a causal impact on workers’ subsequent career. The analysis is based on a sample of low educated youth graduating between 1994 and 2002 in Flanders (Belgium). To correct for selective incidence of non-employment, we instrument early non-employment by the provincial unemployment rate at graduation. Since the instrument is clustered at the province-graduation year level and the number of clusters is small, inference is based on wild bootstrap methods. We find that one percentage point increase in the proportion of time spent in non-employment during the first two and a half years of the career decreases annual earnings from salaried employment six years after graduation by 10% and annual hours worked by 7% (unconditional effects). Thus, any policy that prevents unemployment in the first place will be beneficial. In addition, curative policies at the micro level may be required, depending on the actual cause of the scar

Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain

Este trabajo analiza el impacto que la incertidumbre acerca de las políticas económicas tiene sobre las decisiones de inversión de las empresas. Para ello se hace uso de una muestra de gran tamaño de empresas no financieras españolas, para el período 1998-2014. La incertidumbre se mide utilizando un nuevo indicador, que resume la información contenida en un conjunto de variables referidas a España. Los resultados muestran que un incremento de incertidumbre reduce la inversión empresarial. Asimismo, los resultados obtenidos indican que la incertidumbre tiene un impacto negativo mayor sobre la inversión de las empresas altamente vulnerables. En particular, el impacto es más acusado para las empresas no exportadoras, las empresas pequeñas y medianas, y aquellas empresas que presentan una posición financiera menos robusta. En general, estos resultados son coherentes con el supuesto de que el impacto de la incertidumbre acerca de las políticas económicas sobre la inversión empresarial se produce como consecuencia de un incremento en el ahorro por motivo precaución o por la mayor dificultad de acceso al créditoThe aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of policy uncertainty on firms’ investment decisions. We focus on Spain for the period 1998-2014. To measure policy-related uncertainty, we use a new macroeconomic indicator constructed for this country. We find strong evidence that policy uncertainty reduces corporate investment. Furthermore, the heterogeneous results suggest that the adverse effect of policy uncertainty is particularly relevant for highly vulnerable firms. In particular, non-exporting firms, small and medium enterprises, as well as firms in poorer financial condition are shown to decrease investment signifi cantly more than their counterparts. Overall, these results are consistent with the hypotheses that policy-related uncertainty reduces corporate investment through increases in precautionary savings or to worsening of credit condition

Timed to say goodbye : does unemployment benefit eligibility affect worker layoffs?

Este trabajo estudia el papel que desempeñan las condiciones de acceso a la prestación por desempleo sobre la tasa de despidos. Para ello, se explota la variación cuasi experimental en los criterios de elegibilidad para el subsidio de desempleo en Italia, a través de una estimación de diferencias en diferencias. Los resultados destacan que la probabilidad de despido aumenta alrededor del 12 % en el momento en que los trabajadores alcanzan la elegibilidad para el subsidio de desempleo, y ese efecto persiste durante 16 semanas. Estos resultados se mantienen utilizando diferentes estrategias de estimación, y se explican, en gran parte, por las relaciones laborales que empezaron después de la Gran Recesión, en el sur de Italia y en empresas pequeñas. Razonamos que la principal fuerza impulsora de este efecto es el riesgo moral por parte de las empresasWe study how unemployment benefit eligibility affects the layoff exit rate by exploiting quasiexperimental variation in eligibility rules in Italy. By using a difference-indifferences estimator, we find an instantaneous increase of about 12% in the layoff probability when unemployment benefit eligibility is attained, which persists for about 16 weeks. These findings are robust to different identifying assumptions and are mostly driven by jobs started after the onset of the Great Recession, in the South and for small firms. We argue that the moral hazard from the employer’s side is the main force driving these layoff

Feasibility Study on Measuring the Causal Impact of Erasmus+ Actions

Erasmus+ is a major and emblematic EU policy. It aims among others to contribute to the achievements of the Europe 2020 Strategy and the Strategic Framework for European Cooperation in Education and Training. A variety of studies exist aiming to evaluate Erasmus+ and its predecessor programs. However, the predominant part of existing research does not focus on the causal link of Erasmus+ and its expected outcomes. Therefore, the Directorate-General Education, Youth, Sport and Culture (DG EAC) approached the Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME) to produce a feasibility report. This report answers to the request and the following questions: given the data requirements needed, how can the causal impact of Erasmus+ be evaluated? The report examines what could be done in the short and long term and which parts of Erasmus+ would be quite difficult to measure with counterfactual impact evaluation. The authors also provide a judgment on the value added of any counterfactual impact analysis for different Erasmus+ actions taking existing literature and policy characteristics (like duration, homogeneity of intervention and measures of objectives) into account.JRC.I.1-Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluatio

La filosofia clinica di Wittgenstein

This article aims at drawing the principle boundaries of Wittgenstein's philosophy, by defining its operative area and strategic action. Firstly, it follows the changes in Wittgenstein's interpretation of language and of meaning. These changes will be used as a draft for sketching the equivalent reviews of goals, techniques and ways of doing philsophy that he proposed. Secondly, it analyses late Wittgenstein's philosophical practice, which will be interpreted as clinical. Intento del presente saggio è quello di tracciare le linee principali della filosofia di Wittgenstein definendone l’orizzonte operativo e la strategia d’azione. Seguiremo inizialmente i cambiamenti nella concezione del linguaggio e del significato del filosofo austriaco utilizzandoli come traccia per registrare le corrispondenti revisioni degli obiettivi, delle tecniche e delle forme del far filosofia da lui proposte. Cercheremo poi di analizzare la pratica filosofica prospettata dal Wittgenstein maturo evidenziandone alcuni aspetti che ci consentiranno di qualificarla come clinica

Recent changes in investment in Spain from a macroeconomic perspective

Rationale Cyclical fluctuations in investment are usually sharper than fluctuations in other components of aggregate demand. This article aims to analyse, based on an econometric model, the role played by interest rates, demand and agents’ confidence (the drivers traditionally studied in the literature) in the behaviour of investment under such atypical cyclical circumstances as those derived from the pandemic and the energy crisis. Takeaways •The results show that investment responds negatively to interest rate rises, while enhanced agents’ confidence and greater demand have the opposite effect. •In the absence of new shocks, the bulk of the impact of interest rates on investment occurs with a lag of several quarters, whereas agents’ confidence and demand operate with shorter lags. Given these lags, the interest rate increases and the decline in confidence which took place in 2022 appear to have had a negative effect on investment in 2023, partially offset by the positive impact of the buoyancy of demand recorded last year. •In order to analyse the changes in investment, the effects deriving from any shocks that may arise this year, including those deriving from the variables analysed in this article and other shocks not addressed in this model, should be added to the above-mentioned effects

Quantificazione automatica della ricorticalizzazione ossea attorno ad impianti dentali

È stato implementato in Matlab un algoritmo che riconosce in modo automatico su immagini radiografiche il contorno di un impianto dentale e l'osso che lo circonda ed è stato poi automatizzato il processo di misurazione del ROM, ovvero del Riassorbimento Osseo Marginale presente/assente ai lati dell'impianto. Per il riconoscimento del contorno dell'impianto dentale è stato usato l'approccio di segmentazione con contorni attivi; per il calcolo dell'asse è stata usata in particolare la Trasformata di Hough, mentre per la misurazione del ROM su ciascun lato dell'impianto è stata usata una tecnica di Thresholding. È stata anche dimostrata la robustezza/ripetibilità che l'algoritmo fornisce al processo di misurazione del ROM e la buona correlazione con la procedura di misurazione manuale utilizzata fino ad oggiopenEmbargo per motivi di segretezza e di proprietà dei risultati e informazioni sensibil

The long-term causal effects of winning an ERC grant

El objetivo de este documento es investigar los efectos causales a largo plazo de la concesión de una beca del Consejo Europeo de Investigación (ERC, por sus siglas en inglés) en la productividad de los investigadores, en la excelencia de su trabajo y en su capacidad para obtener nuevas becas hasta nueve años después de la concesión de la beca. Nuestro análisis se basa en datos sobre el universo de solicitantes de becas del ERC entre 2007 y 2023, así como en información acerca de su historial completo de publicaciones disponible en la base de datos Scopus. Para identificar el efecto causal, primero utilizamos la regla de asignación de becas basada en la clasificación de los solicitantes, y comparamos las variables de resultados de los solicitantes que obtienen una beca con los de los solicitantes que no la obtienen utilizando un diseño de regresión en discontinuidad (RDD, por sus siglas en inglés). En el marco de esta metodología, el análisis encuentra efectos estadísticamente significativos en la productividad de los investigadores y en la calidad de la investigación, lo que sugiere que la obtención de una beca del ERC no constituye una diferencia en términos de impacto científico para los investigadores en una posición cercana al umbral en la clasificación. Dado que los diseños RDD contribuyen a identificar un efecto local, también realizamos un análisis de diferencias en diferencias (DID, por sus siglas en inglés) utilizando la serie temporal de los indicadores bibliométricos disponibles, lo que nos permite estimar el efecto en una población más amplia de solicitantes que obtienen la beca y de solicitantes a los que se les deniega. En contraposición a los resultados obtenidos del RDD, las estimaciones del DID muestran que la obtención de una beca del ERC genera efectos positivos a largo plazo en la productividad científica, en el impacto y en la capacidad de atraer otras fuentes de financiación de la Unión Europea en las áreas de química, ciencias del universo y de la tierra, instituciones y comportamientos, estudios de la mente humana y medicina. Un análisis adicional de los efectos heterogéneos nos lleva a concluir que los resultados positivos del DID parecen estar determinados por los solicitantes que ocupan las primeras posiciones en la clasificación en estas áreas.This paper investigates the long-term causal effects of receiving an ERC grant on researcher productivity, excellence and the ability to obtain additional research funding up to nine years after grant assignment. We use data on the universe of ERC applicants between 2007 and 2013 and information on their complete publication histories from the Scopus database. For identification, we first exploit the assignment rule based on rankings, comparing the outcomes of the winning and non-winning applicants in a regression discontinuity design (RDD). We fail to find any statistically significant effect on research productivity and quality, which suggests that receiving an ERC grant does not make a difference in terms of scientific impact for researchers with a ranking position close to the threshold. Since RDDs help identify a local effect, we also conduct a difference-in-differences (DID) analysis using the time series of bibliometric indicators available, which allows us to estimate the effect on a wider population of winning and non-winning applicants. By contrast with the RDD results, DID estimates show that obtaining an ERC grant leads to positive long-term effects on scientific productivity, impact and the capacity to attract other EU funds in the fields of Chemistry, Universe and Earth Sciences, Institutions and Behaviours, Human Mind Studies and Medicine. Further analysis of heterogeneous effects leads us conclude that the positive results obtained with DID seem to be driven by the top-ranked applicants in these fields

Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?

Este documento trata de medir la sincronía cíclica de los precios de la vivienda entre las ciudades españolas y su evolución a lo largo del período considerado. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo con regímenes markovianos que identifica los ciclos de los precios de la vivienda para cada par de ciudades y, al mismo tiempo, obtiene la evolución de la relación entre esos ciclos. Finalmente, estas relaciones bilaterales se sintetizan en un índice agregado de sincronía del precio de la vivienda de las ciudades españolas. Las estimaciones indican una sincronización creciente entre los precios de la vivienda hasta 2009, y después un patrón de leve desacoplamiento. Además, el análisis identifica las ciudades que han contribuido mayormente a este desarrollo. Por último, se muestra que las diferencias en el crecimiento de la población y en la estructura productiva son los factores clave para explicar la evolución de la sincronía de los precios de la vivienda entre las ciudades españolas.In this article, we measure changes over time in the synchronization of housing price cycles across Spanish cities. In doing so, we rely on a regime-switching framework that identifies the housing price cycles of pairs of cities, and simultaneously infers the evolving relation between those cycles. These bilateral relationships are then summarized into an aggregate synchronization index of city-level housing cycles. The estimates suggest that Spanish housing prices have followed a convergence pattern, which picked in 2009 and slightly decreased afterwards. We also identify the cities that have been the main contributors to this convergence process. Moreover, we show that differences in population growth and economic structure are key factors to explain the evolution of housing price synchronization among Spanish cities