The triggering of MHD instabilities through photospheric footpoint motions

The results of 3D numerical simulations modelling the twisting of a coronal loop due to photospheric vortex motions are presented. The simulations are carried out using an initial purely axial field and an initial equilibrium configuration with twist, . The non-linear and resistive evolutions of the instability are followed. The magnetic field is twisted by the boundary motions into a loop which initially has boundary layers near the photospheric boundaries as has been suggested by previous work. The boundary motions increase the twist in the loop until it becomes unstable. For both cases the boundary twisting triggers the kink instability. In both cases a helical current structure wraps itself around the kinked central current. This current scales linearly with grid resolution indicating current sheet formation. For the cases studied 35-40% of the free magnetic energy is released. This is sufficient to explain the energy released in a compact loop flare

How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches?

This paper examines the performance of five different metrics for forecasting men's and women's professional tennis matches. We use data derived from every match played at the 2018 Wimbledon tennis championships, the only grass court Grand Slam tournament. The metrics we use are the betting odds, the official tennis rankings, the overall Elo ratings, the surface-specific Elo ratings (Elo based in this case only on matches played on grass), and a composite of some of the above. The Elo rating system is a method of ranking players based on their past matches, weighted by the ratings of the players they competed against. The performance indicators we use are prediction accuracy, calibration and model discrimination. For men's tennis we find that the betting odds outperform the other measures in terms of prediction accuracy and calibration. A weighted composite of overall and surface-specific Elo performs best in terms of model discrimination. For women's tennis, we find that a weighted composite of overall and surface-specific Elo performs best in terms of prediction accuracy, while a weighted composite of the betting odds, overall Elo and surface-specific Elo performs best in terms of calibration and model discrimination

How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches?

This paper examines the performance of five different measures for forecasting men’s and women’s professional tennis matches. We use data derived from every match played at the 2018 and 2019 Wimbledon tennis championships, the 2019 French Open, the 2019 US Open, and the 2020 Australian Open. We look at the betting odds, the official tennis rankings, the standard Elo ratings, surface-specific Elo ratings, and weighted composites of these ratings, including and excluding the betting odds. The performance indicators used are prediction accuracy, calibration, model discrimination, Brier score and expected return. We find that the betting odds perform relatively well across these tournaments, while standard Elo (especially for women’s tennis) and surface-adjusted Elo (especially for men’s tennis) also perform well on a range of indicators. For all but the hard-court surfaces, a forecasting model which incorporates the betting odds tends also to perform well on some indicators. We find that the official ranking system proved to be a relatively poor measure of likely performance compared to betting odds and Elo related methods. Our results add weight to the case for a wider use of Elo-based approaches within sports forecasting, as well as arguably within the player rankings methodologies

Using hydrogeochemical and ecohydrologic responses to understand epikarst process in semi-arid systems, Edwards plateau, Texas, USA

The epikarst is a permeable boundary between surface and subsurface environments and can be conceptualized as the vadose critical zone of epigenic karst systems which have not developed under insoluble cover. From a hydrologic perspective, this boundary is often thought of as being permeable in one direction only (down), but connectivity between the flow paths of water through the epikarst and the root systems of woody plants means that water moves both up and down across the epikarst. However, the dynamics of these flows are complex and highly dependent on variability in the spatial structure of the epikarst, vegetation characteristics, as well as temporal variability in precipitation and evaporative demand. Here we summarize insights gained from working at several sites on the Edwards Plateau of Central Texas, combining isotopic, hydrogeochemical, and ecophysiological methodologies. 1) Dense woodland vegetation at sites with thin to absent soils (0-30 cm) is in part supported by water uptake from the epikarst. 2) However, tree transpiration typically becomes water-limited in dry summers, suggesting that the plant-available fraction of stored water in the epikarst depletes quickly, even when sustained cave drip rates indicate that water is still present in the epikarst. 3) Flow paths for water that feeds cave drips become rapidly disconnected from the evaporation zone of the epikarst and out of reach for plant roots. 4) Deep infiltration and recharge does not occur in these systems without heavy or continuous precipitation that exceeds some threshold value. Thresholds are strongly correlated with antecedent potential evapotranspiration and rainfall, suggesting control by the moisture status of the epikarst evapotranspiration zone. The epikarst and unsaturated zone in this region can be conceptualized as a variably saturated system with storage in fractures, matrix porosity, and in shallow perched aquifers, most of which is inaccessible to the root systems of trees, although woody vegetation may control recharge thresholds.Keywords: hydraulic disconnection, precipitation thresholds, root zone, plant water use, recharge, epikarst storage, barometric pressure.DOI: 10.3986/ac.v42i2-3.67

Numerical simulations of kink instability in line-tied coronal loops

The results from numerical simulations carried out using a new shock-capturing, Lagrangian-remap, 3D MHD code, Lare3d are presented. We study the evolution of the m=1 kink mode instability in a photospherically line-tied coronal loop that has no net axial current. During the non-linear evolution of the kink instability, large current concentrations develop in the neighbourhood of the infinite length mode rational surface. We investigate whether this strong current saturates at a finite value or whether scaling indicates current sheet formation. In particular, we consider the effect of the shear, defined by where is the fieldline twist of the loop, on the current concentration. We also include a non-uniform resistivity in the simulations and observe the amount of free magnetic energy released by magnetic reconnection

Crystal Structure of Human AKT1 with an Allosteric Inhibitor Reveals a New Mode of Kinase Inhibition

AKT1 (NP_005154.2) is a member of the serine/threonine AGC protein kinase family involved in cellular metabolism, growth, proliferation and survival. The three human AKT isozymes are highly homologous multi-domain proteins with both overlapping and distinct cellular functions. Dysregulation of the AKT pathway has been identified in multiple human cancers. Several clinical trials are in progress to test the efficacy of AKT pathway inhibitors in treating cancer. Recently, a series of AKT isozyme-selective allosteric inhibitors have been reported. They require the presence of both the pleckstrin-homology (PH) and kinase domains of AKT, but their binding mode has not yet been elucidated. We present here a 2.7 Å resolution co-crystal structure of human AKT1 containing both the PH and kinase domains with a selective allosteric inhibitor bound in the interface. The structure reveals the interactions between the PH and kinase domains, as well as the critical amino residues that mediate binding of the inhibitor to AKT1. Our work also reveals an intricate balance in the enzymatic regulation of AKT, where the PH domain appears to lock the kinase in an inactive conformation and the kinase domain disrupts the phospholipid binding site of the PH domain. This information advances our knowledge in AKT1 structure and regulation, thereby providing a structural foundation for interpreting the effects of different classes of AKT inhibitors and designing selective ones

Introducing SpatialGridBuilder: A new system for creating geo-coded datasets

Researchers in the conflict research community have become increasingly aware that we can no longer depend on state-aggregated data. Numerous factors at the substate level affect the nature of human interactions, so if we really want to understand conflict, we need to find more appropriate units of analysis. However, while many conflict researchers have realized this, actually taking the next step and performing data analysis on spatial data grids has remained a rather elusive goal for many because of the difficulty of learning the new techniques to perform such analyses. This paper introduces SpatialGridBuilder, a new, freely available, open-source system with the goal of empowering conflict researchers with no background in GIS methods to start their own spatial analyses. SpatialGridBuilder allows the researcher to: (a) create entirely new spatial datasets, based on the needs of their own research; (b) import their own spatial data; (c) easily add a range of important variables to the datasets, including commonly used conflict variables, plus new variables that have not been presented before; and (d) visualize graphical renderings of this data. Having done this, SpatialGridBuilder will then export the dataset for the researcher to analyse using conventional statistical methods. This article introduces the new program, and demonstrates how it can be used to set up such a statistical analysis. It also shows how different results can be achieved by building grids of different resolutions, thereby encouraging researchers to choose grid resolutions appropriate to their research questions and data. The article also introduces a novel means of determining infrastructure complexity, using Google maps

Drawing the Line: How African, Caribbean and White British Women Live Out Psychologically Abusive Experiences

The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Violence Against Women, 19 (9):1104-32, Sept 2013 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2013. The online version of this article can be found at: http://vaw.sagepub.com/content/19/9/110

D6.7 Report on the experience of conducting the case studies

One of the main aims of the case studies was to publish improved market reports. The data collected as part of the six case studies have been, or will shortly be, published in the five improved national organic market reports and one first regional market report (MOAN case study). This will make a contribution towards filling the many gaps that continue to exist in organic market data collection in Europe

The future impact of changes in rate parity agreements on hotel chains: the long-term implications of the removal of rate parity agreements between hotels and online travel agents using closed consumer group booking models

The Office of Fair Trading, a not-for-profit and non-ministerial government department of the United Kingdom (from April 2014 incorporated within the Competition and Markets Authority), investigated the legality of rate parity from 2012, particularly rate parity agreements made between Intercontinental Hotel Group, Booking.com, and Expedia. Consequently, these major hotel brands and agents have committed to remove rate parity for closed consumer groups. This article identifies confusion over such groups and longer term implications. Smaller agents will enter the market, leading to increased fragmentation and competition. Branded hotels will face tough challenges in protecting prices and value from aggressive agents suddenly facing a more competitive market and independent hoteliers able to establish effective relationships with the new, smaller agents. Keywords : Rate parity, pricing, closed consumer groups, hotels