Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

Strongly Coupled Quark Gluon Plasma (SCQGP)

We propose that the reason for the non-ideal behavior seen in lattice simulation of quark gluon plasma (QGP) and relativistic heavy ion collisions (URHICs) experiments is that the QGP near T_c and above is strongly coupled plasma (SCP), i.e., strongly coupled quark gluon plasma (SCQGP). It is remarkable that the widely used equation of state (EoS) of SCP in QED (quantum electrodynamics) very nicely fits lattice results on all QGP systems, with proper modifications to include color degrees of freedom and running coupling constant. Results on pressure in pure gauge, 2-flavors and 3-flavors QGP, are all can be explained by treating QGP as SCQGP as demonstated here.Energy density and speed of sound are also presented for all three systems. We further extend the model to systems with finite quark mass and a reasonably good fit to lattice results are obtained for (2+1)-flavors and 4-flavors QGP. Hence it is the first unified model, namely SCQGP, to explain the non-ideal QGP seen in lattice simulations with just two system dependent parameters.Comment: Revised with corrections and new results, Latex file (11 pages), postscript file of 7 figure

THERMAL RADIATION FROM MAGNETIZED NEUTRON STARS: A look at the Surface of a Neutron Star.

Surface thermal emission has been detected by ROSAT from four nearby young neutron stars. Assuming black body emission, the significant pulsations of the observed light curves can be interpreted as due to large surface temperature differences produced by the effect of the crustal magnetic field on the flow of heat from the hot interior toward the cooler surface. However, the energy dependence of the modulation observed in Geminga is incompatible with blackbody emission: this effect will give us a strong constraint on models of the neutron star surface.Comment: 10 pages. tar-compressed and uuencoded postcript file. talk given at the `Jubilee Gamow Seminar', St. Petersburg, Sept. 1994

Spendthrifts and Tightwads in Childhood: Feelings about Spending Predict Children’s Financial Decision Making

Adults differ in the extent to which they find spending money to be distressing; “tightwads” find spending money painful, and “spendthrifts” do not find spending painful enough. This affective dimension has been reliably measured in adults and predicts a variety of important financial behaviors and outcomes (e.g., saving behavior and credit scores). Although children’s financial behavior has also received attention, feelings about spending have not been studied in children, as they have in adults. We measured the spendthrift–tightwad (ST–TW) construct in children for the first time, with a sample of 5‐ to 10‐year‐old children (N = 225). Children across the entire age range were able to reliably report on their affective responses to spending and saving, and children’s ST–TW scores were related to parent reports of children’s temperament and financial behavior. Further, children’s ST–TW scores were predictive of whether they chose to save or spend money in the lab, even after controlling for age and how much they liked the offered items. Our novel findings—that children’s feelings about spending and saving can be measured from an early age and relate to their behavior with money—are discussed with regard to theoretical and practical implications. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144659/1/bdm2071_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144659/2/bdm2071.pd

Moving Beyond Noninformative Priors: Why and How to Choose Weakly Informative Priors in Bayesian Analyses

Throughout the last two decades, Bayesian statistical methods have proliferated throughout ecology and evolution. Numerous previous references established both philosophical and computational guidelines for implementing Bayesian methods. However, protocols for incorporating prior information, the defining characteristic of Bayesian philosophy, are nearly nonexistent in the ecological literature. Here, I hope to encourage the use of weakly informative priors in ecology and evolution by providing a ‘consumer\u27s guide’ to weakly informative priors. The first section outlines three reasons why ecologists should abandon noninformative priors: 1) common flat priors are not always noninformative, 2) noninformative priors provide the same result as simpler frequentist methods, and 3) noninformative priors suffer from the same high type I and type M error rates as frequentist methods. The second section provides a guide for implementing informative priors, wherein I detail convenient ‘reference’ prior distributions for common statistical models (i.e. regression, ANOVA, hierarchical models). I then use simulations to visually demonstrate how informative priors influence posterior parameter estimates. With the guidelines provided here, I hope to encourage the use of weakly informative priors for Bayesian analyses in ecology. Ecologists can and should debate the appropriate form of prior information, but should consider weakly informative priors as the new ‘default’ prior for any Bayesian model

Not all surveillance data are created equal—A multi‐method dynamic occupancy approach to determine rabies elimination from wildlife

1. A necessary component of elimination programmes for wildlife disease is effective surveillance. The ability to distinguish between disease freedom and non‐detection can mean the difference between a successful elimination campaign and new epizootics. Understanding the contribution of different surveillance methods helps to optimize and better allocate effort and develop more effective surveillance programmes. 2. We evaluated the probability of rabies virus elimination (disease freedom) in an enzootic area with active management using dynamic occupancy modelling of 10 years of raccoon rabies virus (RABV) surveillance data (2006–2015) collected from three states in the eastern United States. We estimated detection probability of RABV cases for each surveillance method (e.g. strange acting reports, roadkill, surveillance‐trapped animals, nuisance animals and public health samples) used by the USDA National Rabies Management Program. 3. Strange acting, found dead and public health animals were the most likely to detect RABV when it was present, and generally detectability was higher in fall– winter compared to spring–summer. Found dead animals in fall–winter had the highest detection at 0.33 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.48). Nuisance animals had the lowest detection probabilities (~0.02). 4. Areas with oral rabies vaccination (ORV) management had reduced occurrence probability compared to enzootic areas without ORV management. RABV occurrence was positively associated with deciduous and mixed forests and medium to high developed areas, which are also areas with higher raccoon (Procyon lotor) densities. By combining occupancy and detection estimates we can create a probability of elimination surface that can be updated seasonally to provide guidance on areas managed for wildlife disease. 5. Synthesis and applications. Wildlife disease surveillance is often comprised of a combination of targeted and convenience‐based methods. Using a multi‐method analytical approach allows us to compare the relative strengths of these methods, providing guidance on resource allocation for surveillance actions. Applying this multi‐method approach in conjunction with dynamic occupancy analyses better informs management decisions by understanding ecological drivers of disease occurrence

Evidence for the disintegration of KIC 12557548 b

Context. The Kepler object KIC 12557548 b is peculiar. It exhibits transit-like features every 15.7 hours that vary in depth between 0.2% and 1.2%. Rappaport et al. (2012) explain the observations in terms of a disintegrating, rocky planet that has a trailing cloud of dust created and constantly replenished by thermal surface erosion. The variability of the transit depth is then a consequence of changes in the cloud optical depth. Aims. We aim to validate the disintegrating-planet scenario by modeling the detailed shape of the observed light curve, and thereby constrain the cloud particle properties to better understand the nature of this intriguing object. Methods. We analysed the six publicly-available quarters of raw Kepler data, phase-folded the light curve and fitted it to a model for the trailing dust cloud. Constraints on the particle properties were investigated with a light-scattering code. Results. The light curve exhibits clear signatures of light scattering and absorption by dust, including a brightening in flux just before ingress correlated with the transit depth and explained by forward scattering, and an asymmetry in the transit light curve shape, which is easily reproduced by an exponentially decaying distribution of optically thin dust, with a typical grain size of 0.1 micron. Conclusions. Our quantitative analysis supports the hypothesis that the transit signal of KIC 12557548 b is due to a variable cloud of dust, most likely originating from a disintegrating object.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

An Analysis of the Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere of Venus on an AMS of the Venera-12 Using a Gas Chromatograph

Eight analyses of the atmosphere of Venus were made beginning at an altitude of 42 km right down to the surface of the planet. The following were detected in the atmosphere of Venus: nitrogen in concentrations of 2.5 plus or minus 0.5 volumetric %, argon ir concentrations (4 plus or minus 2) x 10 to the minus 3 power volumetric %, CO--(2.8 plus or minus 1.4) x 10 to the minus 3 power volumetric % and SO2 in concentrations (1.3 plus or minus 0.6) x 10 to the minus 2 power volumetric %. The upper limits were estimated for the content of oxygen and water equal to 2 x 10 to the minus 3 power and 10 to the minus 2 power volumetric %, respectively

Radial velocity planets de-aliased. A new, short period for Super-Earth 55 Cnc e

Radial velocity measurements of stellar reflex motion have revealed many extrasolar planets, but gaps in the observations produce aliases, spurious frequencies that are frequently confused with the planets' orbital frequencies. In the case of Gl 581 d, the distinction between an alias and the true frequency was the distinction between a frozen, dead planet and a planet possibly hospitable to life (Udry et al. 2007; Mayor et al. 2009). To improve the characterization of planetary systems, we describe how aliases originate and present a new approach for distinguishing between orbital frequencies and their aliases. Our approach harnesses features in the spectral window function to compare the amplitude and phase of predicted aliases with peaks present in the data. We apply it to confirm prior alias distinctions for the planets GJ 876 d and HD 75898 b. We find that the true periods of Gl 581 d and HD 73526 b/c remain ambiguous. We revise the periods of HD 156668 b and 55 Cnc e, which were afflicted by daily aliases. For HD 156668 b, the correct period is 1.2699 days and minimum mass is (3.1 +/- 0.4) Earth masses. For 55 Cnc e, the correct period is 0.7365 days -- the shortest of any known planet -- and minimum mass is (8.3 +/- 0.3) Earth masses. This revision produces a significantly improved 5-planet Keplerian fit for 55 Cnc, and a self-consistent dynamical fit describes the data just as well. As radial velocity techniques push to ever-smaller planets, often found in systems of multiple planets, distinguishing true periods from aliases will become increasingly important.Comment: Accepted by ApJ (in press); 19 pages, 22 figures. Fixed typos; improved wording; added more extensive discussion of orbital eccentricity; improved figure captions; additional reference