A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission conditions

This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015-2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O-3 and the total gaseous oxidant (O-X = NO2 + O-3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015-2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples' mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015-2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O-3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of similar to 70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015-2019 (between similar to 25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to similar to 40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of similar to 60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O-3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O-3 production, whereas at background sites, O-X was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O-3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.Peer reviewe

A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission

This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015–2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O3 and the total gaseous oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015–2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples’ mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015–2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of ~70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015–2019 (between ~25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to ~40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of ~60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O3 production, whereas at background sites, OX was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission conditions

This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015–2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O3 and the total gaseous oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015–2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples’ mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015–2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of ~70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015–2019 (between ~25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to ~40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of ~60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O3 production, whereas at background sites, OX was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch programme is gratefully acknowledged for initiating and coordinating this study and for supporting this publication. We acknowledge the following projects for supporting the analysis contained in this article: Air Pollution and Human Health for an Indian Megacity project PROMOTE funded by UK NERC and the Indian MOES, Grant reference number NE/P016391/1; Regarding project funding from the European Commission, the sole responsibility of this publication lies with the authors. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. This project has received funding from the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 874990 (EMERGE project). European Regional Development Fund (project MOBTT42) under the Mobilitas Pluss programme; Estonian Research Council (project PRG714); Estonian Research Infrastructures Roadmap project Estonian Environmental Observatory (KKOBS, project 2014-2020.4.01.20-0281). European network for observing our changing planet project (ERAPLANET, grant agreement no. 689443) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Estonian Ministry of Sciences projects (grant nos. P180021, P180274), and the Estonian Research Infrastructures Roadmap project Estonian Environmental Observatory (3.2.0304.11-0395). Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East—Climate and Atmosphere Research (EMME-CARE) project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement no. 856612) and the Government of Cyprus. INAR acknowledges support by the Russian government (grant number 14.W03.31.0002), the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (agreement 14.W0331.0006), and the Russian Ministry of Education and Science (14.W03.31.0008). We are grateful to to the following agencies for providing access to data used in our analysis: A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences; Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente della Campania (ARPAC); Air Quality and Climate Change, Parks and Environment (MetroVancouver, Government of British Columbia); Air Quality Monitoring & Reporting, Nova Scotia Environment (Government of Nova Scotia); Air Quality Monitoring Network (SIMAT) and Emission Inventory, Mexico City Environment Secretariat (SEDEMA); Airparif (owner & provider of the Paris air pollution data); ARPA Lazio, Italy; ARPA Lombardia, Italy; Association Agr´e´ee de Surveillance de la Qualit´e de l’Air en ˆIle-de- France AIRPARIF / Atmo-France; Bavarian Environment Agency, Germany; Berlin Senatsverwaltung für Umwelt, Verkehr und Klimaschutz, Germany; California Air Resources Board; Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), India; CETESB: Companhia Ambiental do Estado de S˜ao Paulo, Brazil. China National Environmental Monitoring Centre; Chandigarh Pollution Control Committee (CPCC), India. DCMR Rijnmond Environmental Service, the Netherlands. Department of Labour Inspection, Cyprus; Department of Natural Resources Management and Environmental Protection of Moscow. Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Monitoring and Science Division Alberta Environment and Parks (Government of Alberta); Environmental Protection Authority Victoria (Melbourne, Victoria, Australia); Estonian Environmental Research Centre (EERC); Estonian University of Life Sciences, SMEAR Estonia; European Regional Development Fund (project MOBTT42) under the Mobilitas Pluss programme; Finnish Meteorological Institute; Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority; Haryana Pollution Control Board (HSPCB), IndiaLondon Air Quality Network (LAQN) and the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) supported by the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government; Madrid Municipality; Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS); Meteorological Service of Canada; Minist`ere de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques (Gouvernement du Qu´ebec); Ministry of Environment and Energy, Greece; Ministry of the Environment (Chile) and National Weather Service (DMC); Moscow State Budgetary Environmental Institution MOSECOMONITORING. Municipal Department of the Environment SMAC, Brazil; Municipality of Madrid public open data service; National institute of environmental research, Korea; National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (SENAMHI), Peru; New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment; Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, Canada; Public Health Service of Amsterdam (GGD), the Netherlands. Punjab Pollution Control Board (PPCB), India. R´eseau de surveillance de la qualit´e de l’air (RSQA) (Montr´eal); Rosgydromet. Mosecomonitoring, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russia; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 20–05–00254) SAFAR-IITM-MoES, India; S˜ao Paulo State Environmental Protection Agency, CETESB; Secretaria de Ambiente, DMQ, Ecuador; Secretaría Distrital de Ambiente, Bogot´a, Colombia. Secretaria Municipal de Meio Ambiente Rio de Janeiro; Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System (SIMAT); Mexico City Secretariat of Environment, Secretaría del Medio Ambiente (SEDEMA); SLB-analys, Sweden; SMEAR Estonia station and Estonian University of Life Sciences (EULS); SMEAR stations data and Finnish Center of Excellence; South African Weather Service and Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries through SAAQIS; Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO); University of Helsinki, Finland; University of Tartu, Tahkuse air monitoring station; Weather Station of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Science of the University of S˜ao Paulo; West Bengal Pollution Control Board (WBPCB).http://www.elsevier.com/locate/envintam2023Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

Soil erosion assessment using RUSLE model and its validation by FR probability model

The objective of the current study is to estimate the annual average soil loss through RUSLE model and furthermore assess the soil erosion risk and its distribution using frequency ratio (FR) probability algorithm. At first, soil erosion risk zones were identified using FR model by the consideration 14 soil erosion conditioning factors such as land use (LU/LC), slope, slope aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), altitude, plan curvature, stream power index, distance from river, road, and lineament, soil types, rainfall erosivity, slope length and lineament density. Secondly, the spatial pattern of annual average soil loss rates was estimated using RUSLE model with consideration of five factors such as, rainfall erosivity (R), cover management (C), slope length (LS), soil erodability (K), and conservation practice factors (P). In order to map soil erosion susceptibility by the FR model, dataset divided randomly into parts 70/30 percent for training and validation purposes, respectively. Based on the FR value, the susceptibility map was reclassified into five different critical erosion probability zones. Among this, the severe and high erosion zones occupy 13.69% and 16.26%, respectively, of the total area, where as low and very low susceptibility zones together constitute 32.98% of the River Basin. The assessed high amount of average annual soil erosion (more than 100 t/ha/year) is occupied 9.55% of the total study area. It is conclude that high soil erosion susceptibility and yearly average soil loss were performed in this study area. Therefore, the produced soil erosion susceptibility maps and annual average soil erosion map can be very useful for primary land use planning and soil erosion hazard mitigation purpose for prioritizing areas

Channel dynamics and geomorphological adjustments of Kaljani River in Himalayan foothills

Channel dynamics is a significant geomorphological process that involves the channel migration, erosion-deposition and meandering of an alluvial river channel within its floodplain region. This geomorphic process is often accelerated by climatic condition and human activities which changes this natural process to a quasi-natural hazard. Current research work tries to evaluate the changing behaviour or dynamic nature of alluvial channel by enlightening average length and shape migration. Finally, state of the art techniques in Arc GIS has been adopted to prepare the mouza (village) wise erosion-deposition map by considering highly fluctuating mouzas of the Kaljani River and its adjacent village at the Himalayan foothill region. The primary data source was a series of time-sequential Landsat data of the years 1972, 1980, 1987, 1993, 1998, 2002, 2008, 2013, and 2019 spanning 47 years. Furthermore, we divided total study time into eight groups i.e. 1972–1980, 1980–1987, 1987–1993, 1993–1998, 1998–2002, 2002–2008, 2008–2013, and 2013–2019 for better understanding. During the study period (1972–2019) the average length of migration of the Kaljani River was 742.05 m and the annual rate was 15.79 m/year. Within this time frame of 1972–2019, the shape area migration of the channel was 66.79 km2 and the annual rate was 1.42 km2/year. The total area of bank erosion from 1972 to 2019 equaled 62.74 km2, out of which, 30.07 km2 were on the right bank and 32.67 km2 were at the left bank. Present analysis helps to enhance the effectiveness of planning and management of land resources and ecological balances in these 45 adjacent Mouzas of the Kaljani River. Among the various important causes, tectonic activity, rainfall, floods, and human intervention especially constriction of the embankment along the Kaljani River are the most significant causes for this dynamic changes of River Kaljani. The results of this study therefore, can be used as an important indicator of the vulnerability of the Kaljani River and also provides information about geomorphological instabilities of the study area

Statistical functions used for spatial modelling due to assessment of landslide distribution and landscape-interaction factors in Iran

Landslides influence the capacity for safe and sustainable development of mountainous environments. This study explores the spatial distribution of and the interactions between landslides that are mapped using global positioning system (GPS) and extensive field surveys in Mazandaran Province, Iran. Point-pattern assessment is undertaken using several univariate summary statistical functions, including pair correlation, spherical-contact distribution, nearest-neighbor analysis, and O-ring analysis, as well as bivariate summary statistics, and a mark-correlation function. The maximum entropy method was applied to prioritize the factors controlling the incidence of landslides and the landslides susceptibility map. The validation processes were considered for separated 30% data applying the ROC curves, fourfold plot, and Cohens kappa index. The results show that pair correlation and O-ring analyses satisfactorily predicted landslides at scales from 1 to 150 m. At smaller scales, from 150 to 400 m, landslides were randomly distributed. The nearest-neighbor distribution function show that the highest distance to the nearest landslide occurred in the 355 m. The spherical-contact distribution revealed that the patterns were random up to a spatial scale of 80 m. The bivariate correlation functions revealed that landslides were positively linked to several linear features (including faults, roads, and rivers) at all spatial scales. The mark-correlation function showed that aggregated fields of landslides were positively correlated with measures of land use, lithology, drainage density, plan curvature, and aspect, when the numbers of landslides in the groups were greater than the overall average aggregation. The results of analysis of factor importance have showed that elevation (topography map scale: 1:25,000), distance to roads, and distance to rivers are the most important factors in the occurrence of landslides. The susceptibility model of landslides indicates an excellent accuracy, i.e., the AUC value of landslides was 0.860. The susceptibility map of landslides analyzed has shown that 35% of the area is low susceptible to landslides

Model based prioritization of urban space for the development of municipal services in Chandernagore Municipal Corporation (CMC), India

The present article wishes to supplement the proliferating urban competitiveness research by adding the role of urban services in providing leverage to these aspirations in smaller cities. A small city with its inability to compete with the largeness, agglomeration and proximity criteria of city competitiveness can witness growth through cultural production, consumption and cultural policy. And for that to happen, urban wellbeing is considered the main lynchpin, which can be accomplished by providing urban services. The present study engages with micro-level spaces to understand the existing performance of municipal services in one of the colonial cities of eastern India. Methods include micro-level spatial analysis of data, Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP); and primary survey of the stakeholders. It is followed by quantification of information in selected municipal services and spatial distribution of population in the study area through Geographic Information System (GIS). These methods and micro-zones have also assessed functional gaps of municipal services identified for decision making

Gully erosion susceptibility assessment and management of hazard-prone areas in India using different machine learning algorithms

Gully erosion is one of the most effective drivers of sediment removal and runoff from highland areas to valley floors and stable channels, where continued off-site effects of water erosion occur. Gully initiation and development is a natural process that greatly impacts natural resources, agricultural activities, and environmental quality as it promotes land and water degradation, ecosystem disruption, and intensification of hazards. In this research, an attempt is made to produce gully erosion susceptibility maps for the management of hazard-prone areas in the Pathro River Basin of India using four well-known machine learning models, namely, multivariate additive regression splines (MARS), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM). To support this effort, observations from 174 gully erosion sites were made using field surveys. Of the 174 observations, 70% were randomly split into a training data set to build susceptibility models and the remaining 30% were used to validate the newly built models. Twelve gully erosion conditioning factors were assessed to find the areas most susceptible to gully erosion. The predisposing factors were slope gradient, altitude, plan curvature, slope aspect, land use, slope length (LS), topographical wetness index (TWI), drainage density, soil type, distance from the river, distance from the lineament, and distance from the road. Finally, the results from the four applied models were validated with the help of ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curves. The AUC value for the RF model was calculated to be 96.2%, whereas for those for the FDA, MARS, and SVM models were 84.2%, 91.4%, and 88.3%, respectively. The AUC results indicated that the random forest model had the highest prediction accuracy, followed by the MARS, SVM, and FDA models. However, it could be concluded that all the machine learning models performed well according to their prediction accuracy. The produced GESMs can be very useful for land managers and policy makers as they can be used to initiate remedial measures and erosion hazard mitigation in prioritized areas.</p

Assessment of Landslide-Prone Areas and Their Zonation Using Logistic Regression, LogitBoost, and NaïveBayes Machine-Learning Algorithms

The occurrence of landslide in the hilly region of South Korea is a matter of serious concern. This study tries to produce landslide susceptibility maps for Jumunjin Country in South Korea. Three machine learning algorithms, namely Logistic Regression (LR), LogitBoost (LB), and Na&iuml;veBayes (NB) are used, and their final model outcomes are compared to each other. Firstly, a landslide inventory map and the associated input data layers of the landslide conditioning factors were developed based on field verification, historical records, and high-resolution remote-sensing data in the geographic information system (GIS) environment. Seventeen landslide conditioning factors were prepared, including aspect, slope, altitude, maximum curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic positioning index (TPI), distance from fault, convexity, forest type, forest diameter, forest density, land use/land cover, lithology, soil, flow accumulation, and mid slope position. The result showed that the area under the curve (AUC) values of LR, LB, and NB models were 84.2%, 70.7%, and 85.2%, respectively. The results revealed that the LR and LB models produced reasonable accuracy than respect to NB model in landslide susceptibility assessment. The final susceptibility maps would be useful for preliminary land-use planning and hazard mitigation purpose

Proposing novel ensemble approach of particle swarm optimized and machine learning algorithms for drought vulnerability mapping in Jharkhand, India

Drought, a natural and very complex climatic hazard, causes impacts on natural and socio-economic environments. This study aims to produce the drought vulnerability map (DVM) considering novel ensemble machine learning algorithms (MLAs) in Jharkhand, India. Forty, drought vulnerability determining factors under the categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were used. Then, four machine learning and four novel ensemble approaches of particle swarm optimized (PSO) algorithms, named random forest (RF), PSO-RF, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), PSO-MLP, support vector regression (SVM), PSO-MLP, Bagging, and PSO-Bagging, were established for DVMs. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), mean-absolute-error (MAE), root-mean-square-error (RMSE), precision, and K-index were utilized for judging the performance of novel ensemble MLAs. The obtained results show that the PSO-RF had the highest performance with an AUC of 0.874, followed by RF, PSO-MLP, PSO-Bagging, Bagging, MLP, PSO-SVM and SVM, respectively. Produced DVMs would be helpful for policy intervention to minimize drought vulnerability