Towards a unified approach to formal risk of bias assessments for causal and descriptive inference

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the invisible portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist once a model has been fitted to some data. Systematic errors, i.e. bias, in data relative to some model and inferential goal can seriously undermine research conclusions, and qualitative and quantitative techniques have been created across several disciplines to quantify and generally appraise such potential biases. Perhaps best known are so-called risk of bias assessment instruments used to investigate the likely quality of randomised controlled trials in medical research. However, the logic of assessing the risks caused by various types of systematic error to statistical arguments applies far more widely. This logic applies even when statistical adjustment strategies for potential biases are used, as these frequently make assumptions (e.g. data missing at random) that can never be guaranteed in finite samples. Mounting concern about such situations can be seen in the increasing calls for greater consideration of biases caused by nonprobability sampling in descriptive inference (i.e. survey sampling), and the statistical generalisability of in-sample causal effect estimates in causal inference; both of which relate to the consideration of model-based and wider uncertainty when presenting research conclusions from models. Given that model-based adjustments are never perfect, we argue that qualitative risk of bias reporting frameworks for both descriptive and causal inferential arguments should be further developed and made mandatory by journals and funders. It is only through clear statements of the limits to statistical arguments that consumers of research can fully judge their value for any specific application.Comment: 12 page

Insensitivity of alkenone carbon isotopes to atmospheric CO₂ at low to moderate CO₂ levels

Atmospheric pCO2 is a critical component of the global carbon system and is considered to be the major control of Earth’s past, present and future climate. Accurate and precise reconstructions of its concentration through geological time are, therefore, crucial to our understanding of the Earth system. Ice core records document pCO2 for the past 800 kyrs, but at no point during this interval were CO2 levels higher than today. Interpretation of older pCO2 has been hampered by discrepancies during some time intervals between two of the main ocean-based proxy methods used to reconstruct pCO2: the carbon isotope fractionation that occurs during photosynthesis as recorded by haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and the boron isotope composition (δ11B) of foraminifer shells. Here we present alkenone and δ11B-based pCO2 reconstructions generated from the same samples from the Plio-Pleistocene at ODP Site 999 across a glacial-interglacial cycle. We find a muted response to pCO2 in the alkenone record compared to contemporaneous ice core and δ11B records, suggesting caution in the interpretation of alkenone-based records at low pCO2 levels. This is possibly caused by the physiology of CO2 uptake in the haptophytes. Our new understanding resolves some of the inconsistencies between the proxies and highlights that caution may be required when interpreting alkenone-based reconstructions of pCO2

The Effects of Fire Fighting and On-Scene Rehabilitation on Hemostatis

Fire fighting is a dangerous occupation – in part because firefighters are called upon to perform strenuous physical activity in hot, hostile environments. Each year, approximately 100 firefighters lose their lives in the line of duty and tens of thousands are injured. Over the past 15 years, approximately 45% of line of duty deaths have been attributed to heart attacks and another 650-1,000 firefighters suffer non-fatal heart attacks in the line of duty each year. From 1990 to 2004, the total number of fireground injuries has declined, yet during this same period, the number of cases related to the leading cause of injury - overexertion/strain – remained relatively constant. It is well recognized that fire fighting leads to increased cardiovascular and thermal strain. However, the time course of recovery from fire fighting is not well documented, despite the fact that a large percentage of fire fighting fatalities occur after fire fighting activity. Furthermore, on scene rehabilitation (OSR) has been broadly recommended to mitigate the cardiovascular and thermal strain associated with performing strenuous fire fighting activity, yet the efficacy of different rehabilitation interventions has not been documented. Twenty-five firefighters were recruited to participate in a “within-subjects, repeated measures” study designed to describe the acute effects of fire fighting on a broad array of physiological and psychological measures and several key cardiovascular variables. This study provided the first detailed documentation of the time course of recovery during 2½ hours post-fire fighting. Additionally, we compared two OSR strategies (standard and enhanced) to determine their effectiveness.published or submitted for publicationnot peer reviewe

J/\Psi production, χ\chi polarization and Color Fluctuations

The hard contributions to the heavy quarkonium-nucleon cross sections are calculated based on the QCD factorization theorem and the nonrelativistic quarkonium model. We evaluate the nonperturbative part of these cross sections which dominates at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}\approx 20$ GeV at the Cern Super Proton Synchrotron (SPS) and becomes a correction at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}\approx 6$ TeV at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). \J production at the CERN SPS is well described by hard QCD, when the larger absorption cross sections of the $\chi$ states predicted by QCD are taken into account. We predict an $A$-dependent polarization of the $\chi$ states. The expansion of small wave packets is discussed.Comment: 13 pages REVTEX, 1 table, 2 PostScript, corrected some typo

Distribution of COL9A2 and COL9A3 Gene Polymorphism in Male Chinese Singaporean - A Pilot Observational Study

The association between allelic variants and lumbar disc degenerative disease (DDD) has been investigated in Europe and Northern Asia. However, this has not been investigated in Southeast Asia. This observational study aims to compare the distribution of COL9A2 and COL9A3 gene polymorphism among male Chinese Singaporeans with and without lumbar DDD. COL9A2 gene polymorphism was investigated in p326 (tryptophan 2, Trp2 and glutamine 2, Gln2, alleles) and p335 (valine 2 or Val2 allele). COL9A3 gene polymorphism was investigated in p17 (glycine 3 or Gly3 allele) and p103 (tryptophan 3 or Trp3 allele). The Val2 allele was significantly decreased in the group with lumbar DDD (p < 0.05). No significant difference in allelic distributions of Trp2, Gln2 and Gly3 was found. The Trp3 allele was absent from all the subjects. The presence of at least one Val2 allele appears to have a protective effect against DDD. However, these should be interpreted with caution, given the limitations. Further investigations are warranted in order to verify such genetic predisposition prior to the potential development of preventative or therapeutic strategies in the near future

On multiplicity correlations in the STAR data

The STAR data on the multiplicity correlations between narrow psudorapidity bins in the pp and AuAu collisions are discussed. The PYTHIA 8.145 generator is used for the pp data, and a naive superposition model is presented for the AuAu data. It is shown that the PYTHIA generator with default parameter values describes the pp data reasonably well, whereas the superposition model fails to reproduce the centrality dependence seen in the data. Some possible reasons for this failure and a comparison with other models are presented.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure