Comparing comorbidity measures for predicting mortality and hospitalization in three population-based cohorts

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multiple comorbidity measures have been developed for risk-adjustment in studies using administrative data, but it is unclear which measure is optimal for specific outcomes and if the measures are equally valid in different populations. This research examined the predictive performance of five comorbidity measures in three population-based cohorts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Administrative data from the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, were used to create the cohorts. The general population cohort included all Saskatchewan residents 20+ years, the diabetes cohort included individuals 20+ years with a diabetes diagnosis in hospital and/or physician data, and the osteoporosis cohort included individuals 50+ years with diagnosed or treated osteoporosis. Five comorbidity measures based on health services utilization, number of different diagnoses, and prescription drugs over one year were defined. Predictive performance was assessed for death and hospitalization outcomes using measures of discrimination (<it>c</it>-statistic) and calibration (Brier score) for multiple logistic regression models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The comorbidity measures with optimal performance were the same in the general population (<it>n </it>= 662,423), diabetes (<it>n </it>= 41,925), and osteoporosis (<it>n </it>= 28,068) cohorts. For mortality, the Elixhauser index resulted in the highest <it>c</it>-statistic and lowest Brier score, followed by the Charlson index. For hospitalization, the number of diagnoses had the best predictive performance. Consistent results were obtained when we restricted attention to the population 65+ years in each cohort.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The optimal comorbidity measure depends on the health outcome and not on the disease characteristics of the study population.</p

A Screening Pipeline for Antiparasitic Agents Targeting Cryptosporidium Inosine Monophosphate Dehydrogenase

Persistent diarrhea is a leading cause of illness and death among impoverished children, and a growing share of this disease burden can be attributed to the parasite Cryptosporidium. There are no vaccines to prevent Cryptosporidium infection, and the treatment options are limited and unreliable. Critically, no effective treatment exists for children or adults suffering from AIDS. Cryptosporidium presents many technical obstacles for drug discovery; perhaps the most important roadblock is the difficulty of monitoring drug action. Here we have developed a set of methods to accelerate the drug discovery process for cryptosporidiosis. We exploit the opportunities for experimental manipulation in the related parasite Toxoplasma to genetically engineer a Cryptosporidium model. This new model parasite mirrors the metabolism of Cryptosporidium for a particularly promising drug target that supplies the building blocks for DNA and RNA. Drug effectiveness can be assayed through simple fluorescence measurements for many candidates. Using this assay as an initial filter, and adapting other assays to a high throughput format, we identify several novel chemical compounds that exhibit markedly improved anti-cryptosporidial activity and excellent selectivity

3 years of liraglutide versus placebo for type 2 diabetes risk reduction and weight management in individuals with prediabetes: a randomised, double-blind trial

Background: Liraglutide 3·0 mg was shown to reduce bodyweight and improve glucose metabolism after the 56-week period of this trial, one of four trials in the SCALE programme. In the 3-year assessment of the SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes trial we aimed to evaluate the proportion of individuals with prediabetes who were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Methods: In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adults with prediabetes and a body-mass index of at least 30 kg/m2, or at least 27 kg/m2 with comorbidities, were randomised 2:1, using a telephone or web-based system, to once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide 3·0 mg or matched placebo, as an adjunct to a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. Time to diabetes onset by 160 weeks was the primary outcome, evaluated in all randomised treated individuals with at least one post-baseline assessment. The trial was conducted at 191 clinical research sites in 27 countries and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01272219. Findings: The study ran between June 1, 2011, and March 2, 2015. We randomly assigned 2254 patients to receive liraglutide (n=1505) or placebo (n=749). 1128 (50%) participants completed the study up to week 160, after withdrawal of 714 (47%) participants in the liraglutide group and 412 (55%) participants in the placebo group. By week 160, 26 (2%) of 1472 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 46 (6%) of 738 in the placebo group were diagnosed with diabetes while on treatment. The mean time from randomisation to diagnosis was 99 (SD 47) weeks for the 26 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 87 (47) weeks for the 46 individuals in the placebo group. Taking the different diagnosis frequencies between the treatment groups into account, the time to onset of diabetes over 160 weeks among all randomised individuals was 2·7 times longer with liraglutide than with placebo (95% CI 1·9 to 3·9, p&lt;0·0001), corresponding with a hazard ratio of 0·21 (95% CI 0·13–0·34). Liraglutide induced greater weight loss than placebo at week 160 (–6·1 [SD 7·3] vs −1·9% [6·3]; estimated treatment difference −4·3%, 95% CI −4·9 to −3·7, p&lt;0·0001). Serious adverse events were reported by 227 (15%) of 1501 randomised treated individuals in the liraglutide group versus 96 (13%) of 747 individuals in the placebo group. Interpretation: In this trial, we provide results for 3 years of treatment, with the limitation that withdrawn individuals were not followed up after discontinuation. Liraglutide 3·0 mg might provide health benefits in terms of reduced risk of diabetes in individuals with obesity and prediabetes. Funding: Novo Nordisk, Denmark

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Federalism and nuclear waste disposal: The struggle over shared decision making

Traditionally the domain of federal agencies, authority to select sites for the disposal of commercial high-level nuclear wastes has recently been expanded to include a role for host states. State opposition to earlier siting efforts had demonstrated the dificulties federal agencies faced in resolving conflict between the local population bearing the costs and the dispersed population receiving the benefits. The new model defines the agency and the state as adversarial representatives of these competing interests. An outstanding weakness, however, is that it does not clearly specify who should speak for the state, and may actually promote intrastate conflict. The adversarial approach does not provide a generic solution to the problem of federalism, but it may prove useful at the state level for selecting disposal sites for low-level radioactive wastes and hazardous chemical wastes.