Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort.

Objectives To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Methods We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. Results Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ≥10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p<0.001) and all-cause death (15.4% vs 7.3%; p=0.003) than non-progressors. These significant associations were also found in subgroup analyses of patients with either low baseline mRSS (≤22/51) or short disease duration (≤15 months). In multivariable analyses, skin progression within 1 year was independently associated with FVC decline ≥10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09). Conclusions Progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice

Revised European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group Activity Index is the best predictor of short-term severity accrual

BACKGROUND: The European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group (EUSTAR) recently developed a preliminarily revised activity index (AI) that performed better than the European Scleroderma Study Group Activity Index (EScSG-AI) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive value for short-term disease severity accrual of the EUSTAR-AI, as compared with those of the EScSG-AI and of known adverse prognostic factors. METHODS: Patients with SSc from the EUSTAR database with a disease duration from the onset of the first non-Raynaud sign/symptom ≤5 years and a baseline visit between 2003 and 2014 were first extracted. To capture the disease activity variations over time, EUSTAR-AI and EScSG-AI adjusted means were calculated. The primary outcome was disease progression defined as a Δ≥1 in the Medsger's severity score and in distinct items at the 2-year follow-up visit. Logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify predictive factors. RESULTS: 549 patients were enrolled. At multivariate analysis, the EUSTAR-AI adjusted mean was the only predictor of any severity accrual and of that of lung and heart, skin and peripheral vascular disease over 2 years. CONCLUSION: The adjusted mean EUSTAR-AI has the best predictive value for disease progression and development of severe organ involvement over time in SSc.status: publishe

Influence of TYK2 in systemic sclerosis susceptibility: a new locus in the IL-12 pathway

Objectives TYK2 is a common genetic risk factor for several autoimmune diseases. This gene encodes a protein kinase involved in interleukin 12 (IL-12) pathway, which is a well-known player in the pathogenesis of systemic sclerosis (SSc). Therefore, we aimed to assess the possible role of this locus in SSc. Methods This study comprised a total of 7103 patients with SSc and 12 220 healthy controls of European ancestry from Spain, USA, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and the UK. Four TYK2 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (V362F (rs2304256), P1104A (rs34536443), I684S (rs12720356) and A928V (rs35018800)) were selected for follow-up based on the results of an Immunochip screening phase of the locus. Association and dependence analyses were performed by the means of logistic regression and conditional logistic regression. Meta-analyses were performed using the inverse variance method. Results Genome-wide significance level was reached for TYK2 V362F common variant in our pooled analysis (p=3.08x10(-13), OR=0.83), while the association of P1104A, A928V and I684S rare and low-frequency missense variants remained significant with nominal signals (p=2.28x10(-3), OR=0.80; p=1.27x10(-3), OR=0.59; p=2.63x10(-5), OR=0.83, respectively). Interestingly, dependence and allelic combination analyses showed that the strong association observed for V362F with SSc, corresponded to a synthetic association dependent on the effect of the three previously mentioned TYK2 missense variants. Conclusions We report for the first time the association of TYK2 with SSc and reinforce the relevance of the IL-12 pathway in SSc pathophysiology

Predictors of disease worsening defined by progression of organ damage in diffuse systemic sclerosis: a European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) analysis

OBJECTIVES: Mortality and worsening of organ function are desirable endpoints for clinical trials in systemic sclerosis (SSc). The aim of this study was to identify factors that allow enrichment of patients with these endpoints, in a population of patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research group database. METHODS: Inclusion criteria were diagnosis of diffuse SSc and follow-up over 12±3 months. Disease worsening/organ progression was fulfilled if any of the following events occurred: new renal crisis; decrease of lung or heart function; new echocardiography-suspected pulmonary hypertension or death. In total, 42 clinical parameters were chosen as predictors for the analysis by using (1) imputation of missing data on the basis of multivariate imputation and (2) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. RESULTS: Of 1451 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 706 had complete data on outcome parameters and were included in the analysis. Of the 42 outcome predictors, eight remained in the final regression model. There was substantial evidence for a strong association between disease progression and age, active digital ulcer (DU), lung fibrosis, muscle weakness and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Active DU, CRP elevation, lung fibrosis and muscle weakness were also associated with a significantly shorter time to disease progression. A bootstrap validation step with 10 000 repetitions successfully validated the model. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the predictive factors presented here could enable cohort enrichment with patients at risk for overall disease worsening in SSc clinical trials.status: publishe

Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort

Objectives To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Methods We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) >= 7, valid mRSS at 12 +/- 3 months after baseline and >= 1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and >= 25% from baseline to 12 +/- 3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. Results Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline >= 10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p= 10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09). Conclusions Progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice