Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies.Climate change, Economic impact assessment, Adaptation, Cost benefit analysis

Offensive or defensive play in soccer : a game-theoretical approach

In many sports, such as soccer, a coach has to decide whether to adopt an “offensive” or a “defensive” approach to a match. This strategic decision depends on the strengths and weaknesses of his team with respect to the opponent, but also on the strategy chosen by the opponent’s coach. The fact that a draw also results in a point, which may be important for the ranking, further complicates this decision, as the coach must assess whether it is better to adopt a defensive team formation in order to obtain a draw, or to aim for victory despite the increased risk of defeat. We study this topic by means of a game-theoretical approach, and we develop an algorithm which allows to compute the optimal strategy. The algorithm tests the stability of the outcome with respect to uncertainty in the estimated win probabilities. Furthermore, our approach can handle in-game events, which may provoke changes in optimal strategy. Finally, our model also allows us to assess the effect of various point systems on the willingness of teams to opt for attacking play. Our method is applied to a case study, based on the match Italy – Costa Rica (World Cup 2014)

Balancing pairs of interfering elements

Many decisions in different fields of application have to take into account the joined effects of two elements that can interfere with each other. For example, in Industrial Economics the demand of an asset can be influenced by the supply of another asset, with synergic or antagonistic effects. The same happens in Public Economics, where two differing economic policies can create mutual interference. Analogously in Medicine and Life Sciences with drugs whose combined administration can produce extra damages or synergies. Other examples occur in Agriculture, Zootechnics and so on. When it is necessary to intervene in such elements, there is sometimes a primary interest for one effect rather than another. For example, if the importance of the effect of an element is ten times greater than the importance of the effect of another, then it is convenient to take this importance into consideration in deciding to what extent it should be employed. With this in mind, the model proposed here allows the optimal quantities of two elements that interfere with each other to be calculated, taking into account the minimum quantities to be allocated. Algorithms for determining solutions for continuous effects' functions are given, together with software specifically for the case of bilinear functions. It concludes with the presentation of applications particularly to economical problems.Antagonist Elements; Interfering Elements; Optimal dosage; Combinations of interfering strategies; Synergies

Therapeutic advice: a rhetorical-argumentative perspective on doctor-patient communication

The purpose of this work is to analyze the persuasion which characterizes therapeutic advice and its collaborative goal. It is observed that this type of advice seems to be more effective when it is not limited to a mere scientific demonstration, but it considers also all the interlocutor's subjective aspects. The study is supported by examples from a little corpus of transcribed real doctor-patient dialogues, collected and analyzed in a previous research work of the author. The research examines the principal arguments, argumentative figures and silences

Economic Valuation of On Site Material Damages of High Water on Economic Activities based in the City of Venice: Results from a Dose-Response-Expert-Based Valuation Approach

The paper focuses on the economic assessment of damages caused by high water in the city of Venice. In particular, we focus our attention on a valuation exercise that addresses the estimation of monetary, short period, on-site damages due to high water events on the different business activities located in Venice. On-site damages include both mitigation costs, which refer to all types of financial expenditure undergone to avert physical and material damages caused by flooding, and remediation costs, i.e. costs to be sustained for maintenance and substitution of affected building elements. Hence, the present study can be considered as a pioneering attempt to analytically quantify, from an economic point of view, on-site damages from high water. An integrated dose-response modelling and an expert-based valuation approach have been selected as the most suitable economic valuation methodology to shed light on the on-site damages. The main focus of the work is to assess dose-response relationships, which are able to describe the physical effects of high water on the different on-site damage categories, including inner and front doors maintenance, cleaning of pavements and maintenance of the walls. Bearing in mind such an economic valuation framework, we proceed with the estimation of on-site damages not only for the present high water situation (business as usual) but also extend the valuation exercise to three additional high water scenarios: (1) a climate change scenario; (2) a high water protection scenario; and, (3) a combined climate change and protection scenario. Estimation results show that the welfare loss due to on-site, short-term damages supported by the business activities ranges from 3.41 to 4.73 million Euro per year, respectively for the business as usual and climate change scenarios. Finally, we can conclude that the introduction of a public policy protection mechanism that defends the city of Venice from any flooding above 110 cm above the Punta della Salute Tidal Datum, such as the MOSE, will reduce the on-site damages supported by the business activities up to 2.87 million Euro per year.High water damages, Venice, Economic valuation

Equilibrium Solution in a Game between a Cooperative and its Members

In the paper a game-theoretical model is set up to describe the conflict situation in which the members of a marketing cooperative may take advantage of an external market price, higher than that offered by the cooperative. Under appropriate conditions on the penalty strategy of the cooperative, the faithfulness of all members will provide a Nash equilibrium for the considered game, which at the same time also is an attractive solution, with the cooperative as a distinguished player.Cooperatives, Game Theory, Nash equilibria

Learning by Doing vs Learning by Researching in a Model of Climate Change Policy Analysis

Many predictions and conclusions in climate change literature have been made on the basis of theoretical analyses and quantitative models that assume exogenous technological change. One may wonder if those policy prescriptions hold in the more realistic case of endogenously evolving technologies. In previous work we modified a popular integrated assessment model to allow for an explicit role of the stock of knowledge which accumulates through R&D investment. In our formulation knowledge affects the output production technology and the emission-output ratio. In this paper we make progress in our efforts aimed to model the process of technological change. In keeping with recent theories of endogenous growth, we specify two ways in which knowledge accumulates: via a deliberate, optimally selected R&D decision or via experience, giving rise to Learning by Doing. We simulate the model under the two versions of endogenous technical change and look at the dynamics of a number of relevant variables.Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

Unveiling Sentiment Dynamics and Forecasting Future Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone using Option-Implied Asymmetry Measures

In this paper, we introduced several asymmetry indices based on option prices for the Eurozone. The aim is to investigate the ability of option-implied asymmetry measures to explain sentiment dynamics and forecast future market sentiment. To achieve our objectives, we measured asymmetry in two ways. Firstly, we decomposed the SKEW index into its positive and negative components. Secondly, we introduced the Risk-Asymmetry (RAX) index as an alternative measure of asymmetry. Our findings suggest that asymmetry indices play a significant role in explaining the level of economic sentiment indicators. Additionally, the asymmetry index obtained from the left tail of the risk-neutral distribution (put prices) contains useful information for predicting the level of sentiment in the following month

Spin-Orbit Qubits of Rare-Earth-Metal Ions in Axially Symmetric Crystal Fields

Contrary to the well known spin qubits, rare-earth qubits are characterized by a strong influence of crystal field due to large spin-orbit coupling. At low temperature and in the presence of resonance microwaves, it is the magnetic moment of the crystal-field ground-state which nutates (for several $\mu$s) and the Rabi frequency $\Omega_R$ is anisotropic. Here, we present a study of the variations of $\Omega_R(\vec{H}_{0})$ with the magnitude and direction of the static magnetic field $\vec{H_{0}}$ for the odd $^{167}$Er isotope in a single crystal CaWO$_4$:Er$^{3+}$. The hyperfine interactions split the $\Omega_R(\vec{H}_{0})$ curve into eight different curves which are fitted numerically and described analytically. These "spin-orbit qubits" should allow detailed studies of decoherence mechanisms which become relevant at high temperature and open new ways for qubit addressing using properly oriented magnetic fields