The Uncertainty of Valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a robability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

Evaluation and Feasibility Study of Retrofitting Interventions on Social Housing in Italy

Abstract While there are an increasing number of new projects aiming at combining high residential quality and low power consumption, it is clear that the main challenge in the short term concerns the performance upgrading of the existing residential buildings stock. The feasibility analysis should consider the economic implications of the retrofit projects. A Disocunted Cash Flow analysis can be implemented in order to investigate the economic aspects of such interventions. The DCF approach allows the analysis of costs as well as the revenues and savings with the objective of understanding the period of time needed to recover the initial investment

Energy Retrofit in European Building Portfolios: A Review of Five Key Aspects

The research about energy efficiency in buildings has exponentially increased during the last few years. Nevertheless, both research and practice still cannot rely on complete methodologies tailored for building portfolios as a whole, because the attention has always been drawn to individual premises. Yet, energy efficiency analyses need to go beyond the single building perspective and incorporate strategic district approaches to optimize the retrofit investment. For this purpose, several aspects should be considered simultaneously, and new methodologies should also be promoted. Therefore, this paper aims to discuss energy retrofit campaigns in building portfolios, drawing an exhaustive and updated review about the challenge of jumping from the single-building perspective to a stock-based analysis. This research discusses the publications available on the topic from five key aspects that are all essential steps in achieving a complete and reliable study of energy efficiency at a portfolio level. They are energy modelling and assessment, energy retrofit design, decision-making criteria assessment, optimal allocation of (financial) resources and risk valuation. This review, therefore, advocates for joint consideration of the problem as a basis on which to structure further disciplinary developments. Research gaps are highlighted, and new directions for future research are suggested

Nanoparticle-based receptors mimic protein-ligand recognition

The self-assembly of a monolayer of ligands on the surface of noble metal nanoparticles dictates the fundamental nanoparticle\u2019s behavior and its functionality. In this combined computational\u2013experimental study, we analyze the structure, organization, and dynamics of functionalized coating thiols in monolayer-protected gold nanoparticles (AuNPs). We explain how functionalized coating thiols self-organize through a delicate and somehow counterintuitive balance of interactions within the monolayer itself and with the solvent. We further describe how the nature and plasticity of these interactions modulate nanoparticle-based chemosensing. Importantly, we found that self-organization of coating thiols can induce the formation of binding pockets in AuNPs. These transient cavities can accommodate small molecules, mimicking protein-ligand recognition, which may explain the selectivity and sensitivity observed for different organic analytes in NMR chemosensing experiments. Thus, our findings advocate for the rational design of tailored coating groups to form specific recognition binding sites on monolayer-protected AuNPs

What role does timing play in migrants' transition to marriage? A comparison between endogamous and exogamous marriages

Couple formation and migration are the result of interrelated decision-making processes in the life cycle. Using data from the "Social Condition and Integration of Foreign Citizens (SCIF)" survey, conducted in Italy in 2011-2012 by Istat, we aim to investigate how the timing of migration events affects the type and timing of marriages in the destination country. Time-related models investigate the competing-risk transitions to endogamous and exogamous marriages with Italian spouses. Obtained results provide evidence of the complexity of today’s migrations, and they indicate the coexistence of various patterns among first-generation migrants in Italy, characterised by a plurality of origins, with different projects and behavioural models. The “interrelation of events” hypothesis explains the transitions to both endogamous and exogamous marriages among women, while men usually spend more time finding a partner and achieving economic stability. Despite this general picture, our analysis shows different and original pathways shaping transitions to marriage by reason of migration and considering a number of demographic and migratory characteristics.Die Gründung eines Paarhaushaltes und Migration sind das Resultat verschiedener, miteinander verwobener Entscheidungsprozesse im Lebenslauf. Ziel der Studie ist es, die Rolle von temporalen Aspekten im Zusammenhang mit der internationalen Wanderung von Personen in Beziehung zum Heiratsverhalten dieser im Ankunftskontext zu setzen. Genutzt werden Daten, die das Italienische Nationale Institut für Statistik (ISTAT) im Rahmen der Umfrage zur "Sozialen Lage und Integration von ausländischen Bürgern" (SCIF) im Zeitraum 2011-12 in Italien erhoben hat. Mit Methoden der Ereignisdatenanalyse werden die konkurrierenden Übergänge in eine endogame beziehungsweise exogame Ehe mit einem/r italienischen Ehepartner/in analysiert. Die Herkünfte, Wanderungspläne und Verhaltensmodelle der ersten Migrantengeneration in Italien sind sehr divers. Unsere Ergebnisse spiegeln diese Diversität wider, indem sie die Komplexität der heutigen Wanderungsbewegungen und die Gleichzeitigkeit von verschiedenen Mustern offenlegen. Die Hypothese über die Interdependenz von Ereignissen ist dabei in der Lage, Erklärungen für endogame und exogame Eheschließungen der Migrantinnen zu liefern. Die Heiraten der Migranten hingegen scheinen durch die Dauer geprägt zu sein, die diese aufwenden, um eine Partnerin zu finden und ökonomische Stabilität zu erlangen. Zusätzlich werden in die Analyse migrationsspezifische Variablen und sozio-demografische Merkmale einbezogen, sodass verschiedene Pfade beim Übergang in die Ehe sichtbar werden

Dysbiosis and zonulin upregulation alter gut epithelial and vascular barriers in patients with ankylosing spondylitis

Background: Dysbiosis has been recently demonstrated in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) but its implications in the modulation of intestinal immune responses have never been studied. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of ileal bacteria in modulating local and systemic immune responses in AS. Methods: Ileal biopsies were obtained from 50 HLA-B27+ patients with AS and 20 normal subjects. Silver stain was used to visualise bacteria. Ileal expression of tight and adherens junction proteins was investigated by TaqMan real-time (RT)-PCR and immunohistochemistry. Serum levels of lipopolysaccharide (LPS), LPS-binding protein (LPS-BP), intestinal fatty acid-BP (iFABP) and zonulin were assayed by ELISA. Monocyte immunological functions were studied in in vitro experiments. In addition the effects of antibiotics on tight junctions in human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B27 transgenic (TG) rats were assessed. Results: Adherent and invasive bacteria were observed in the gut of patients with AS with the bacterial scores significantly correlated with gut inflammation. Impairment of the gut vascular barrier (GVB) was also present in AS, accompanied by significant upregulation of zonulin, and associated with high serum levels of LPS, LPS-BP, iFABP and zonulin. In in vitro studies zonulin altered endothelial tight junctions while its epithelial release was modulated by isolated AS ileal bacteria. AS circulating monocytes displayed an anergic phenotype partially restored by ex vivo stimulation with LPS+sCD14 and their stimulation with recombinant zonulin induced a clear M2 phenotype. Antibiotics restored tight junction function in HLA-B27 TG rats. Conclusions: Bacterial ileitis, increased zonulin expression and damaged intestinal mucosal barrier and GVB, characterises the gut of patients with AS and are associated with increased blood levels of zonulin, and bacterial products. Bacterial products and zonulin influence monocyte behaviour

Combined Venlafaxine and Olanzapine Prescription in Women with Psychotic Major Depression: A Case Series

Patients with psychotic major depression suffer prolonged duration and greater severity of illness, including an increased likelihood of recurrent episodes and resistance to conventional pharmacotherapies. They do not respond to placebo and respond poorly to antidepressant or antipsychotic monotherapy. On the other hand, as has been demonstrated, they do respond well to antidepressant and antipsychotic combination therapies. Different combinations of drugs were studied, but little is known up to now with regard to the combination of venlafaxine and olanzapine. The following paper presents three separate case studies of female patients suffering from psychotic unipolar major depression, all of whom were admitted to a psychiatric ward and successfully treated with a combination of venlafaxine and olanzapine

Anxiety, depression, and glycemic control during Covid-19 pandemic in youths with type 1 diabetes.

Abstract Objectives Our study aims to assess the impact of lockdown during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on glycemic control and psychological well-being in youths with type 1 diabetes. Methods We compared glycemic metrics during lockdown with the same period of 2019. The psychological impact was evaluated with the Test of Anxiety and Depression. Results We analyzed metrics of 117 adolescents (87% on Multiple Daily Injections and 100% were flash glucose monitoring/continuous glucose monitoring users). During the lockdown, we observed an increase of the percentage of time in range (TIR) (p<0.001), with a significant reduction of time in moderate (p=0.002), and severe hypoglycemia (p=0.001), as well as the percentage of time in hyperglycemia (p<0.001). Glucose variability did not differ (p=0.863). The glucose management indicator was lower (p=0.001). 7% of youths reached the threshold-score (≥115) for anxiety and 16% for depression. A higher score was associated with lower TIR [p=0.028, p=0.012]. Conclusions Glycemic control improved during the first lockdown period with respect to the previous year. Symptoms of depression and anxiety were associated with worse glycemic control; future researches are necessary to establish if this improvement is transient and if psychological difficulties will increase during the prolonged pandemic situation