Structural model optimization using statistical evaluation

The results of research in applying statistical methods to the problem of structural dynamic system identification are presented. The study is in three parts: a review of previous approaches by other researchers, a development of various linear estimators which might find application, and the design and development of a computer program which uses a Bayesian estimator. The method is tried on two models and is successful where the predicted stiffness matrix is a proper model, e.g., a bending beam is represented by a bending model. Difficulties are encountered when the model concept varies. There is also evidence that nonlinearity must be handled properly to speed the convergence

Rapid evolution in introduced species, ‘invasive traits’ and recipient communities: challenges for predicting invasive potential

The damaging effects of invasive organisms have triggered the development of Invasive Species Predictive Schemes (ISPS). These schemes evaluate biological and historical characteristics of species and prioritize those that should be the focus of exclusion, quarantine, and/or control. However, it is not clear how commonly these schemes take microevolutionary considerations into account. We review the recent literature and find that rapid evolutionary changes are common during invasions. These evolutionary changes include rapid adaptation of invaders to new environments, effects of hybridization, and evolution in recipient communities. Strikingly, we document 38 species in which the specific traits commonly associated with invasive potential (e.g. growth rate, dispersal ability, generation time) have themselves undergone evolutionary change following introduction, in some cases over very short (≤ 10 year) timescales. In contrast, our review of 29 ISPS spanning plant, animal, and microbial taxa shows that the majority (76%) envision invading species and recipient communities as static entities. Those that incorporate evolutionary considerations do so in a limited way. Evolutionary change not only affects the predictive power of these schemes, but also complicates their evaluation. We argue that including the evolutionary potential of species and communities in ISPS is overdue, present several metrics related to evolutionary potential that could be incorporated in ISPS, and provide suggestions for further research on these metrics and their performance. Finally, we argue that the fact of evolutionary change during invasions begs for added caution during risk assessment

Three-dimensional Models of Core-collapse Supernovae From Low-mass Progenitors With Implications for Crab

We present 3D full-sphere supernova simulations of non-rotating low-mass (~9 Msun) progenitors, covering the entire evolution from core collapse through bounce and shock revival, through shock breakout from the stellar surface, until fallback is completed several days later. We obtain low-energy explosions [~(0.5-1.0)x 10^{50} erg] of iron-core progenitors at the low-mass end of the core-collapse supernova (LMCCSN) domain and compare to a super-AGB (sAGB) progenitor with an oxygen-neon-magnesium core that collapses and explodes as electron-capture supernova (ECSN). The onset of the explosion in the LMCCSN models is modelled self-consistently using the Vertex-Prometheus code, whereas the ECSN explosion is modelled using parametric neutrino transport in the Prometheus-HOTB code, choosing different explosion energies in the range of previous self-consistent models. The sAGB and LMCCSN progenitors that share structural similarities have almost spherical explosions with little metal mixing into the hydrogen envelope. A LMCCSN with less 2nd dredge-up results in a highly asymmetric explosion. It shows efficient mixing and dramatic shock deceleration in the extended hydrogen envelope. Both properties allow fast nickel plumes to catch up with the shock, leading to extreme shock deformation and aspherical shock breakout. Fallback masses of <~5x10^{-3} Msun have no significant effects on the neutron star (NS) masses and kicks. The anisotropic fallback carries considerable angular momentum, however, and determines the spin of the newly-born NS. The LMCCSNe model with less 2nd dredge-up results in a hydrodynamic and neutrino-induced NS kick of >40 km/s and a NS spin period of ~30 ms, both not largely different from those of the Crab pulsar at birth.Comment: 47 pages, 27 figures, 6 tables; minor revisions, accepted by MNRA

Constraining relativistic models through heavy ion collisions

Relativistic models can be successfully applied to the description of compact star properties in nuclear astrophysics as well as to nuclear matter and finite nuclei properties, these studies taking place at low and moderate temperatures. Nevertheless, all results are model dependent and so far it is unclear whether some of them should be discarded. Moreover, in the regime of hot hadronic matter very few calculations exist using these relativistic models, in particular when applied to particle yields in heavy ion collisions. In the present work we comment on the known constraints that can help the selection of adequate models in this regime and investigate the main differences that arise when the particle production during a Au+Au collision at RHIC is calculated with different models.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure, 3 table

Oidium longipes, a new powdery mildew fungus on petunia in the USA: A potential threat to ornamental and vegetable solanaceous crops

This is the first North American report of Oidium longipes, an anamorphic powdery mildew species described recently in Europe. It was found on vegetatively propagated petunia grown in a commercial greenhouse in New Jersey, USA, where it caused a rapidly spreading disease. The pathogen might have originated offshore and may have already been distributed in the United States through horticultural trade. During field surveys in Europe, it was found on petunia in Hungary and Austria as well; this is the first report of O. longipes from these two countries. A detailed light microscopy study of American and European specimens of O. longipes, including freshly collected samples and authentic herbarium specimens, revealed that its conidiophore morphology is more variable than illustrated in the original species description or in subsequent works. Microcycle conidiation, a process not yet known to occur in powdery mildews, was repeatedly observed in O. longipes. The rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences were identical in colonies containing different conidiophore types as well as in a total of five specimens collected from petunia in the United States, Austria, Hungary, Germany, and Switzerland. A phylogenetic analysis of the ITS sequences revealed that the closest known relative of O. longipes is O. lycopersici, known to infect tomato only in Australia. Cross-inoculation tests showed that O. longipes from petunia heavily infected tobacco cv. Xanthi, while the tomato and eggplant cultivars tested were moderately susceptible to this pathogen. These results indicate that its spread represents a potential danger to a number of solanaceous crops. Our ad hoc field surveys conducted in 2006 and 2007 did not detect it outside New Jersey in the United States; all the other powdery mildew–infected petunias, collected in New York and Indiana, were infected by Podosphaera xanthii. In Europe, most of the powdery mildew–infected petunias examined in this study were infected by P. xanthii or Golovinomyces orontii. Our multiple inoculation tests revealed that the same petunia plants and even the same leaves can be infected concomitantly by O. longipes, O. neolycopersici, G. orontii, and P. xanthii. Thus, it is at present unclear to what extent O. longipes contributes to the powdery mildew epidemics that develop year after year on solanaceous plants in many parts of the world

Pendulum Testing as a Means of Assessing the Crash Performance of Longitudinal Barrier with Minor Damage

Longitudinal barriers such as w-beam guardrails are subjected to a series of full-scale crash tests to determine their impact performance before being considered acceptable for use on the nation’s highways. Once longitudinal barriers are installed along a roadway, however, they often sustain minor damage in various ways. Since barriers are exclusively tested in an undamaged condition, there is very little known regarding the crash performance of barriers that have sustained minor damage. Transportation agencies responsible for deploying and maintaining these barrier systems need a better understanding of damaged barrier performance to make timely and cost-effective barrier maintenance decisions under the constraints of limited resources. This study is believed to be the first evaluation of the crash performance of strong post w-beam barrier that has sustained minor damage. A pendulum impact testing methodology was developed for the evaluation of two-post sections of strong post w-beam barrier. Pendulum tests were then conducted on barrier sections with five types of damage: (1) vertical tear, (2) horizontal tear, (3) splice damage, (4) twisted blockout, and (5) missing blockout. Based on these tests, vertical tears were found to be a significant threat to the structural adequacy of the barrier section with a high likelihood for rail rupture. A missing blockout at the splice location was found to result in marginal performance with one test resulting in a large rail tear at the splice. Mid-span horizontal tears and splice damage, with one of eight bolts lacking bearing capacity, were found to have a less significant threat on the structural adequacy of the barrier. Twisted blockout damage was found to have no effect on the structural crash performance of the strong post w-beam barrier