Narrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2

This is the final version. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordUncertainty in the behavior of the carbon cycle is important in driving the range in future projected climate change. Previous comparisons of model responses with historical CO2 observations have suggested a strong constraint on simulated projections that could narrow the range considered plausible. This study uses a new 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of variants of an Earth system model for three future scenarios, which 1) explores a wider range of potential climate responses than before and 2) includes the impact of past uncertainty in carbon emissions on simulated trends. These two factors represent a more complete exploration of uncertainty, although they lead to a weaker constraint on the range of future CO2 concentrations as compared to earlier studies. Nevertheless, CO2 observations are shown to be effective at narrowing the distribution, excluding 30 of 57 simulations as inconsistent with historical CO2 changes. The perturbed model variants excluded are mainly at the high end of the future projected CO2 changes, with only 8 of the 26 variants projecting RCP8.5 2100 concentrations in excess of 1100 ppm retained. Interestingly, a minority of the high-end variants were able to capture historical CO2 trends, with the large-magnitude response emerging later in the century (owing to high climate sensitivities, strong carbon feedbacks, or both). Comparison with observed CO2 is effective at narrowing both the range and distribution of projections out to the mid-twenty-first century for all scenarios and to 2100 for a scenario with low emissions.This work was supported by the Joint U.K. DECC/DEFRA Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Chris Jones’s contribution was supported by the CRESCENDO project under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant Agreement 641816. Jo House was supported by a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship and EU FP7 Project LUC4C (603542). Stephen Sitch was supported by the EU FP7 through Project LUC4C (GA603542)

Ground state cooling in a bad cavity

We study the mechanical effects of light on an atom trapped in a harmonic potential when an atomic dipole transition is driven by a laser and it is strongly coupled to a mode of an optical resonator. We investigate the cooling dynamics in the bad cavity limit, focussing on the case in which the effective transition linewidth is smaller than the trap frequency, hence when sideband cooling could be implemented. We show that quantum correlations between the mechanical actions of laser and cavity field can lead to an enhancement of the cooling efficiency with respect to sideband cooling. Such interference effects are found when the resonator losses prevail over spontaneous decay and over the rates of the coherent processes characterizing the dynamics.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; J. Mod. Opt. (2007

Genomic Regions Identified by Overlapping Clusters of Nominally-Positive SNPs from Genome-Wide Studies of Alcohol and Illegal Substance Dependence

Declaring “replication” from results of genome wide association (GWA) studies is straightforward when major gene effects provide genome-wide significance for association of the same allele of the same SNP in each of multiple independent samples. However, such unambiguous replication is unlikely when phenotypes display polygenic genetic architecture, allelic heterogeneity, locus heterogeneity and when different samples display linkage disequilibria with different fine structures. We seek chromosomal regions that are tagged by clustered SNPs that display nominally-significant association in each of several independent samples. This approach provides one “nontemplate” approach to identifying overall replication of groups of GWA results in the face of difficult genetic architectures. We apply this strategy to 1 M SNP GWA results for dependence on: a) alcohol (including many individuals with dependence on other addictive substances) and b) at least one illegal substance (including many individuals dependent on alcohol). This approach provides high confidence in rejecting the null hypothesis that chance alone accounts for the extent to which clustered, nominally-significant SNPs from samples of the same racial/ethnic background identify the same sets of chromosomal regions. It identifies several genes that are also reported in other independent alcohol-dependence GWA datasets. There is more modest confidence in: a) identification of individual chromosomal regions and genes that are not also identified by data from other independent samples, b) the more modest overlap between results from samples of different racial/ethnic backgrounds and c) the extent to which any gene not identified herein is excluded, since the power of each of these individual samples is modest. Nevertheless, the strong overlap identified among the samples with similar racial/ethnic backgrounds supports contributions to individual differences in vulnerability to addictions that come from newer allelic variants that are common in subsets of current humans

Identification of Mendelian inconsistencies between SNP and pedigree information of sibs

Background Using SNP genotypes to apply genomic selection in breeding programs is becoming common practice. Tools to edit and check the quality of genotype data are required. Checking for Mendelian inconsistencies makes it possible to identify animals for which pedigree information and genotype information are not in agreement. Methods Straightforward tests to detect Mendelian inconsistencies exist that count the number of opposing homozygous marker (e.g. SNP) genotypes between parent and offspring (PAR-OFF). Here, we develop two tests to identify Mendelian inconsistencies between sibs. The first test counts SNP with opposing homozygous genotypes between sib pairs (SIBCOUNT). The second test compares pedigree and SNP-based relationships (SIBREL). All tests iteratively remove animals based on decreasing numbers of inconsistent parents and offspring or sibs. The PAR-OFF test, followed by either SIB test, was applied to a dataset comprising 2,078 genotyped cows and 211 genotyped sires. Theoretical expectations for distributions of test statistics of all three tests were calculated and compared to empirically derived values. Type I and II error rates were calculated after applying the tests to the edited data, while Mendelian inconsistencies were introduced by permuting pedigree against genotype data for various proportions of animals. Results Both SIB tests identified animal pairs for which pedigree and genomic relationships could be considered as inconsistent by visual inspection of a scatter plot of pairwise pedigree and SNP-based relationships. After removal of 235 animals with the PAR-OFF test, SIBCOUNT (SIBREL) identified 18 (22) additional inconsistent animals. Seventeen animals were identified by both methods. The numbers of incorrectly deleted animals (Type I error), were equally low for both methods, while the numbers of incorrectly non-deleted animals (Type II error), were considerably higher for SIBREL compared to SIBCOUNT. Conclusions Tests to remove Mendelian inconsistencies between sibs should be preceded by a test for parent-offspring inconsistencies. This parent-offspring test should not only consider parent-offspring pairs based on pedigree data, but also those based on SNP information. Both SIB tests could identify pairs of sibs with Mendelian inconsistencies. Based on type I and II error rates, counting opposing homozygotes between sibs (SIBCOUNT) appears slightly more precise than comparing genomic and pedigree relationships (SIBREL) to detect Mendelian inconsistencies between sib

Appetite, gut hormone and energy intake responses to low volume sprint interval and traditional endurance exercise.

Sprint interval exercise improves several health markers but the appetite and energy balance response is unknown. This study compared the effects of sprint interval and endurance exercise on appetite, energy intake and gut hormone responses. Twelve healthy males [mean (SD): age 23 (3) years, body mass index 24.2 (2.9) kg m(-2), maximum oxygen uptake 46.3 (10.2) mL kg(-1) min(-1)] completed three 8 h trials [control (CON), endurance exercise (END), sprint interval exercise (SIE)] separated by 1 week. Trials commenced upon completion of a standardised breakfast. Sixty minutes of cycling at 68.1 (4.3) % of maximum oxygen uptake was performed from 1.75-2.75 h in END. Six 30-s Wingate tests were performed from 2.25-2.75 h in SIE. Appetite ratings, acylated ghrelin and peptide YY (PYY) concentrations were measured throughout each trial. Food intake was monitored from buffet meals at 3.5 and 7 h and an overnight food bag. Appetite (P 0.05). Therefore, relative energy intake (energy intake minus the net energy expenditure of exercise) was lower in END than that in CON (15.7 %; P = 0.006) and SIE (11.5 %; P = 0.082). An acute bout of endurance exercise resulted in lower appetite perceptions in the hours after exercise than sprint interval exercise and induced a greater 24 h energy deficit due to higher energy expenditure during exercise

Specific fatty acid intake and the risk of pancreatic cancer in Canada

The possible association of specific fatty acid (FA) intake and pancreatic cancer risk was investigated in a population-based case–control study of 462 histologically confirmed cases and 4721 frequency-matched controls in eight Canadian provinces between 1994 and 1997. Dietary intake was assessed by means of a self-administered food frequency questionnaire. Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess associations between dietary FAs and pancreatic cancer risk. After adjustment for age, province, body mass index, smoking, educational attainment, fat and total energy intake, statistically significant inverse associations were observed between pancreatic cancer risk and palmitate (odds ratios (ORs)=0.73; 95% confidence intervals (CIs) 0.56–0.96; P-trend=0.02), stearate (OR=0.70; 95% CI 0.51–0.94; P-trend=0.04), oleate (OR=0.75; 95% CI 0.55–1.02; P-trend=0.04), saturated FAs (OR=0.67; 95% CI 0.50–0.91; P-trend=0.01), and monounsaturated FAs (OR=0.72; 95% CI 0.53–0.98; P-trend=0.02), when comparing the highest quartile of intake to the lowest. Significant interactions were detected between body mass index and both saturated and monounsaturated FAs, with a markedly reduced risk associated with intake of stearate (OR=0.36; 95% CI 0.18–0.70; P-trend=0.001), oleate (OR=0.36; 95% CI 0.19–0.72; P-trend=0.002), saturated FAs (OR=0.35; 95% CI 0.18–0.67; P-trend=0.002), and monounsaturated FAs (OR=0.32; 95% CI 0.16–0.63; P-trend<0.0001) among subjects who are obese. The results suggest that substituting polyunsaturated FAs with saturated or monounsaturated FAs may reduce pancreatic cancer risk, independently of total energy intake, particularly among obese subjects

Does moxibustion work? An overview of systematic reviews

Abstract Background Several systematic reviews (SRs) have assessed the effectiveness of moxibustion for a range of conditions, often with contradictory conclusions. Our aim was to provide a critical evaluation and summary of these data. Methods Electronic searches were conducted to locate all SRs of moxibustion for any condition. Data were extracted by two authors according to predefined criteria. Results Ten SRs met our inclusion criteria, which related to the following conditions: cancer, ulcerative colitis, stroke rehabilitation, constipation, hypertension, pain conditions and breech presentation. Their conclusions were contradictory in several instances. Relatively clear evidence emerged to suggest that moxibustion is effective for breech presentation. Conclusions Based on evidence from the currently available SRs, the effectiveness of moxibustion has been demonstrated for several conditions; however, due to the poor quality of the primary studies, there remains considerable uncertainty.</p

Towards quantum computing with single atoms and optical cavities on atom chips

We report on recent developments in the integration of optical microresonators into atom chips and describe some fabrication and implementation challenges. We also review theoretical proposals for quantum computing with single atoms based on the observation of photons leaking through the cavity mirrors. The use of measurements to generate entanglement can result in simpler, more robust and scalable quantum computing architectures. Indeed, we show that quantum computing with atom-cavity systems is feasible even in the presence of relatively large spontaneous decay rates and finite photon detector efficiencies.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

Medication administration errors for older people in long-term residential care

Background Older people in long-term residential care are at increased risk of medication errors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a computerised barcode medication management system designed to improve drug administrations in residential and nursing homes, including comparison of error rates and staff awareness in both settings. Methods All medication administrations were recorded prospectively for 345 older residents in thirteen care homes during a 3-month period using the computerised system. Staff were surveyed to identify their awareness of administration errors prior to system introduction. Overall, 188,249 attempts to administer medication were analysed to determine the prevalence of potential medication administration errors (MAEs). Error classifications included attempts to administer medication at the wrong time, to the wrong person or discontinued medication. Analysis compared data at residential and nursing home level and care and nursing staff groups. Results Typically each resident was exposed to 206 medication administration episodes every month and received nine different drugs. Administration episodes were more numerous (p < 0.01) in nursing homes (226.7 per resident) than in residential homes (198.7). Prior to technology introduction, only 12% of staff administering drugs reported they were aware of administration errors being averted in their care home. Following technology introduction, 2,289 potential MAEs were recorded over three months. The most common MAE was attempting to give medication at the wrong time. On average each resident was exposed to 6.6 potential errors. In total, 90% of residents were exposed to at least one MAE with over half (52%) exposed to serious errors such as attempts to give medication to the wrong resident. MAEs rates were significantly lower (p < 0.01) in residential homes than nursing homes. The level of non-compliance with system alerts was low in both settings (0.075% of administrations) demonstrating virtually complete error avoidance. Conclusion Potentially inappropriate administration of medication is a serious problem in long-term residential care. A computerised barcode system can accurately and automatically detect inappropriate attempts to administer drugs to residents. This tool can reliably be used by care staff as well as nurses to improve quality of care and patient safety