Stochastic blockmodels with growing number of classes

We present asymptotic and finite-sample results on the use of stochastic blockmodels for the analysis of network data. We show that the fraction of misclassified network nodes converges in probability to zero under maximum likelihood fitting when the number of classes is allowed to grow as the root of the network size and the average network degree grows at least poly-logarithmically in this size. We also establish finite-sample confidence bounds on maximum-likelihood blockmodel parameter estimates from data comprising independent Bernoulli random variates; these results hold uniformly over class assignment. We provide simulations verifying the conditions sufficient for our results, and conclude by fitting a logit parameterization of a stochastic blockmodel with covariates to a network data example comprising a collection of Facebook profiles, resulting in block estimates that reveal residual structure.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures; revised versio

Correlates of condom use in a sample of MSM in Ecuador

BACKGROUND: In Ecuador, the prevalence of HIV in the general population is approximately 0.3%. However, up to 17% prevalence has been reported among specific groups of homosexual and bisexual men. The objective of this study is to explore correlates of condom use among men who have sex with men (MSM) across eight cities in Ecuador. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey design was used. A questionnaire including variables on sexual behaviour, demographics, and socio-economic characteristics was distributed to a sample of MSM in eight Ecuadorian cities. RESULTS: Information was obtained for 2,594 MSM across the eight cities. The largest subcategory of self-identification was active bisexuals (35%), followed by those who described themselves as "hombrados" (masculine gays, 22%). The mean age was 25 years, and the majority were unmarried (78%), with a median of 10 years of schooling (IQR 7 – 12). Regarding condom use, 55% of those interviewed had unprotected penetrative sex with each of their last three partners, and almost 25% had never used a condom. The most important correlates of condom use were single status, high life-skills rating, and high socio-economic status (RP 5.45, 95% CI 4.26 – 6.37; RP 1.84, 95% CI 1.79 – 1.86, and RP 1.20, 95% CI 1.01 – 1.31, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our data illustrate the urgent need for targeted HIV-prevention programs for MSM populations in Ecuador. MSM have the highest HIV prevalence in the country, and condom use is extremely low. It is imperative that prevention strategies be re-evaluated and re-prioritized to more effectively respond to the Ecuadorian epidemic

Evolving Clustered Random Networks

We propose a Markov chain simulation method to generate simple connected random graphs with a specified degree sequence and level of clustering. The networks generated by our algorithm are random in all other respects and can thus serve as generic models for studying the impacts of degree distributions and clustering on dynamical processes as well as null models for detecting other structural properties in empirical networks

Episodic Sexual Transmission of HIV Revealed by Molecular Phylodynamics

Using viral genotype data from HIV drug resistance testing at a London clinic, Andrew Leigh Brown and colleagues derive the structure of the transmission network through phylogenetic analysis

Prevalence of Same-Sex Sexual Behavior and Associated Characteristics among Low-Income Urban Males in Peru

Peru has a concentrated HIV epidemic in which men who have sex with men are particularly vulnerable. We describe the lifetime prevalence of same-sex sexual contact and associated risk behaviors of men in Peru's general population, regardless of their sexual identity.A probability sample of males from low-income households in three Peruvian cities completed an epidemiologic survey addressing their sexual risk behavior, including sex with other men. Serum was tested for HSV-2, HIV, and syphilis. Urine was tested for chlamydia and gonorrhea. A total of 2,271 18-30 year old men and women were contacted, of whom 1,645 (72.4%) agreed to participate in the study. Among the sexually experienced men surveyed, 15.2% (85/558, 95% CI: 12.2%-18.2%) reported a history of sex with other men. Men ever reporting sex with men (MESM) had a lower educational level, had greater numbers of sex partners, and were more likely to engage in risk behaviors including unprotected sex with casual partners, paying for or providing compensated sex, and using illegal drugs. MESM were also more likely to have had previous STI symptoms or a prior STI diagnosis, and had a greater prevalence of HSV-2 seropositivity.Many low-income Peruvian men have engaged in same-sex sexual contact and maintain greater behavioral and biological risk factors for HIV/STI transmission than non-MESM. Improved surveillance strategies for HIV and STIs among MESM are necessary to better understand the epidemiology of HIV in Latin America and to prevent its further spread

The impact of social networks on knowledge transfer in long-term care facilities: Protocol for a study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Social networks are theorized as significant influences in the innovation adoption and behavior change processes. Our understanding of how social networks operate within healthcare settings is limited. As a result, our ability to design optimal interventions that employ social networks as a method of fostering planned behavior change is also limited. Through this proposed project, we expect to contribute new knowledge about factors influencing uptake of knowledge translation interventions.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>Our specific aims include: To collect social network data among staff in two long-term care (LTC) facilities; to characterize social networks in these units; and to describe how social networks influence uptake and use of feedback reports.</p> <p>Methods and design</p> <p>In this prospective study, we will collect data on social networks in nursing units in two LTC facilities, and use social network analysis techniques to characterize and describe the networks. These data will be combined with data from a funded project to explore the impact of social networks on uptake and use of feedback reports. In this parent study, feedback reports using standardized resident assessment data are distributed on a monthly basis. Surveys are administered to assess report uptake. In the proposed project, we will collect data on social networks, analyzing the data using graphical and quantitative techniques. We will combine the social network data with survey data to assess the influence of social networks on uptake of feedback reports.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will contribute to understanding mechanisms for knowledge sharing among staff on units to permit more efficient and effective intervention design. A growing number of studies in the social network literature suggest that social networks can be studied not only as influences on knowledge translation, but also as possible mechanisms for fostering knowledge translation. This study will contribute to building theory to design such interventions.</p

Influence of the topology on the dynamics of a complex network of HIV/AIDS epidemic models

In this paper, we propose an original complex network model for an epidemic problem in an heterogeneous geographical area. The complex network is constructed by coupling nonidentical instances of a HIV/AIDS epidemiological model for which a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium can coexist. After proving the existence of a positively invariant region for the solutions of the complex network problem, we investigate the effect of the coupling on the dynamics of the network, and establish the existence of a unique disease-free equilibrium for the whole network, which is globally asymptotically stable. We prove the existence of an optimal topology that minimizes the level of infected individuals, and apply the theoretical results to the case of the Cape Verde archipelago.This research was partially supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) within projects UID/MAT/04106/2019 (CIDMA) and PTDC/EEI-AUT/2933/2014 (TOCCATTA), co-funded by FEDER funds through COMPETE2020 – Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalizac¸ao (POCI) and by national funds (FCT). Silva is also supported by national funds (OE), through FCT, I.P., in the scope of the framework contract foreseen in the numbers 4, 5 and 6 of the article 23, of the Decree-Law 57/2016, of August 29, changed by Law 57/2017, of July 19.publishe