Forum: Complex Systems and International Governance

That we live in an age of complexity and transition is hardly news. Ours is the age of interconnections, ambiguity, and uncertainty; of the diffusion of authority; of various kinds of revolutions: military, technological, social, political, economic, and even philosophical. What springs from these developments is the feeling of a lack of control. Decision-makers either think they have no other option but to act as they do or are paralyzed by the uncertainties and conflicting pressures they face. The usual solution is to try to reassert control, which leads to new problems. Paradoxically, as our tools to make sense and control societies and our environment increase, our ability to do so diminishes

Mutual information rate and bounds for it

The amount of information exchanged per unit of time between two nodes in a dynamical network or between two data sets is a powerful concept for analysing complex systems. This quantity, known as the mutual information rate (MIR), is calculated from the mutual information, which is rigorously defined only for random systems. Moreover, the definition of mutual information is based on probabilities of significant events. This work offers a simple alternative way to calculate the MIR in dynamical (deterministic) networks or between two data sets (not fully deterministic), and to calculate its upper and lower bounds without having to calculate probabilities, but rather in terms of well known and well defined quantities in dynamical systems. As possible applications of our bounds, we study the relationship between synchronisation and the exchange of information in a system of two coupled maps and in experimental networks of coupled oscillators

HLA association with the susceptibility to anti-synthetase syndrome

Objective: To investigate the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) association with anti-synthetase syndrome (ASSD). Methods: We conducted the largest immunogenetic HLA-DRB1 and HLA-B study to date in a homogeneous cohort of 168 Caucasian patients with ASSD and 486 ethnically matched healthy controls by sequencing-based-typing. Results: A statistically significant increase of HLA-DRB1*03:01 and HLA-B*08:01 alleles in patients with ASSD compared to healthy controls was disclosed (26.2% versus 12.2%, P = 1.56E–09, odds ratio–OR [95% confidence interval–CI] = 2.54 [1.84–3.50] and 21.4% versus 5.5%, P = 18.95E–18, OR [95% CI] = 4.73 [3.18–7.05]; respectively). Additionally, HLA-DRB1*07:01 allele was significantly decreased in patients with ASSD compared to controls (9.2% versus 17.5%, P = 0.0003, OR [95% CI] = 0.48 [0.31–0.72]). Moreover, a statistically significant increase of HLA-DRB1*03:01 allele in anti-Jo-1 positive compared to anti-Jo-1 negative patients with ASSD was observed (31.8% versus 15.5%, P = 0.001, OR [95% CI] = 2.54 [1.39–4.81]). Similar findings were observed when HLA carrier frequencies were assessed. The HLA-DRB1*03:01 association with anti-Jo-1 was unrelated to smoking history. No HLA differences in patients with ASSD stratified according to the presence/absence of the most representative non-anti-Jo-1 anti-synthetase autoantibodies (anti-PL-12 and anti-PL-7), arthritis, myositis or interstitial lung disease were observed. Conclusions: Our results support the association of the HLA complex with the susceptibility to ASSD

Institutions for Asian Connectivity

To make Asia more economically sustainable and resilient against external shocks, regional economies need to be rebalanced toward regional demand- and trade-driven growth through increased regional connectivity. The effectiveness of connectivity depends on the quality of hard and soft infrastructure. Of particular importance in terms of soft infrastructure which makes hard infrastructure work are the facilitating institutions that support connectivity through appropriate policies, reforms, systems, and procedures and through promoting effective coordination and cooperation. Asia has many overlapping subregional institutions involved in national and regional energy, transport, and telecommunications infrastructure connectivity. However, these institutions are characterized as being less effective, informal, and lacking a clear and binding system of rules and policies. This paper draws linkages between connectivity, growth and development, governance, and institutions. It details the benefits the region could achieve by addressing needed connectivity enhancements and the connectivity and financing challenges it faces. In addition, it presents various institutional options for regional infrastructure financing. To build seamless Asian connectivity, Asia needs an effective, formal, and rules-based institutional framework. The paper presents a new institutional framework together with the organizational structures of two new regional institutional mechanisms, namely the Pan-Asian Infrastructure Forum and the Asian Infrastructure Fund

Influence of antisynthetase antibodies specificities on antisynthetase syndrome clinical spectrum time course

Antisynthetase syndrome (ASSD) is a rare clinical condition that is characterized by the occurrence of a classic clinical triad, encompassing myositis, arthritis, and interstitial lung disease (ILD), along with specific autoantibodies that are addressed to different aminoacyl tRNA synthetases (ARS). Until now, it has been unknown whether the presence of a different ARS might affect the clinical presentation, evolution, and outcome of ASSD. In this study, we retrospectively recorded the time of onset, characteristics, clustering of triad findings, and survival of 828 ASSD patients (593 anti-Jo1, 95 anti-PL7, 84 anti-PL12, 38 anti-EJ, and 18 anti-OJ), referring to AENEAS (American and European NEtwork of Antisynthetase Syndrome) collaborative group's cohort. Comparisons were performed first between all ARS cases and then, in the case of significance, while using anti-Jo1 positive patients as the reference group. The characteristics of triad findings were similar and the onset mainly began with a single triad finding in all groups despite some differences in overall prevalence. The "ex-novo" occurrence of triad findings was only reduced in the anti-PL12-positive cohort, however, it occurred in a clinically relevant percentage of patients (30%). Moreover, survival was not influenced by the underlying anti-aminoacyl tRNA synthetase antibodies' positivity, which confirmed that antisynthetase syndrome is a heterogeneous condition and that antibody specificity only partially influences the clinical presentation and evolution of this condition

An Indo-Pacific coral spawning database.

The discovery of multi-species synchronous spawning of scleractinian corals on the Great Barrier Reef in the 1980s stimulated an extraordinary effort to document spawning times in other parts of the globe. Unfortunately, most of these data remain unpublished which limits our understanding of regional and global reproductive patterns. The Coral Spawning Database (CSD) collates much of these disparate data into a single place. The CSD includes 6178 observations (3085 of which were unpublished) of the time or day of spawning for over 300 scleractinian species in 61 genera from 101 sites in the Indo-Pacific. The goal of the CSD is to provide open access to coral spawning data to accelerate our understanding of coral reproductive biology and to provide a baseline against which to evaluate any future changes in reproductive phenology

An Indo-Pacifc coral spawning database

The discovery of multi-species synchronous spawning of scleractinian corals on the Great Barrier Reef in the 1980s stimulated an extraordinary effort to document spawning times in other parts of the globe. Unfortunately, most of these data remain unpublished which limits our understanding of regional and global reproductive patterns. The Coral Spawning Database (CSD) collates much of these disparate data into a single place. The CSD includes 6178 observations (3085 of which were unpublished) of the time or day of spawning for over 300 scleractinian species in 61 genera from 101 sites in the Indo-Pacific. The goal of the CSD is to provide open access to coral spawning data to accelerate our understanding of coral reproductive biology and to provide a baseline against which to evaluate any future changes in reproductive phenology

Lymnaea schirazensis, an Overlooked Snail Distorting Fascioliasis Data: Genotype, Phenotype, Ecology, Worldwide Spread, Susceptibility, Applicability

BACKGROUND: Lymnaeid snails transmit medical and veterinary important trematodiases, mainly fascioliasis. Vector specificity of fasciolid parasites defines disease distribution and characteristics. Different lymnaeid species appear linked to different transmission and epidemiological patterns. Pronounced susceptibility differences to absolute resistance have been described among lymnaeid populations. When assessing disease characteristics in different endemic areas, unexpected results were obtained in studies on lymnaeid susceptibility to Fasciola. We undertook studies to understand this disease transmission heterogeneity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A ten-year study in Iran, Egypt, Spain, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Peru, demonstrated that such heterogeneity is not due to susceptibility differences, but to a hitherto overlooked cryptic species, Lymnaea schirazensis, confused with the main vector Galba truncatula and/or other Galba/Fossaria vectors. Nuclear rDNA and mtDNA sequences and phylogenetic reconstruction highlighted an old evolutionary divergence from other Galba/Fossaria species, and a low intraspecific variability suggesting a recent spread from one geographical source. Morphometry, anatomy and egg cluster analyses allowed for phenotypic differentiation. Selfing, egg laying, and habitat characteristics indicated a migration capacity by passive transport. Studies showed that it is not a vector species (n = 8572 field collected, 20 populations): snail finding and penetration by F. hepatica miracidium occur but never lead to cercarial production (n = 338 experimentally infected). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This species has been distorting fasciolid specificity/susceptibility and fascioliasis geographical distribution data. Hence, a large body of literature on G. truncatula should be revised. Its existence has henceforth to be considered in research. Genetic data on livestock, archeology and history along the 10,000-year post-domestication period explain its wide spread from the Neolithic Fertile Crescent. It is an efficient biomarker for the follow-up of livestock movements, a crucial aspect in fascioliasis emergence. It offers an outstanding laboratory model for genetic studies on susceptibility/resistance in F. hepatica/lymnaeid interaction, a field of applied research with disease control perspectives

Observation of gravitational waves from the coalescence of a 2.5–4.5 M ⊙ compact object and a neutron star

We report the observation of a coalescing compact binary with component masses 2.5–4.5 M ⊙ and 1.2–2.0 M ⊙ (all measurements quoted at the 90% credible level). The gravitational-wave signal GW230529_181500 was observed during the fourth observing run of the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA detector network on 2023 May 29 by the LIGO Livingston observatory. The primary component of the source has a mass less than 5 M ⊙ at 99% credibility. We cannot definitively determine from gravitational-wave data alone whether either component of the source is a neutron star or a black hole. However, given existing estimates of the maximum neutron star mass, we find the most probable interpretation of the source to be the coalescence of a neutron star with a black hole that has a mass between the most massive neutron stars and the least massive black holes observed in the Galaxy. We provisionally estimate a merger rate density of 55−47+127Gpc−3yr−1 for compact binary coalescences with properties similar to the source of GW230529_181500; assuming that the source is a neutron star–black hole merger, GW230529_181500-like sources may make up the majority of neutron star–black hole coalescences. The discovery of this system implies an increase in the expected rate of neutron star–black hole mergers with electromagnetic counterparts and provides further evidence for compact objects existing within the purported lower mass gap