Pathogen seasonality and links with weather in England and Wales: A big data time series analysis

This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this record.Background: Many infectious diseases of public health importance display annual seasonal patterns in their incidence. We aimed to systematically document the seasonality of several human infectious disease pathogens in England and Wales, highlighting those organisms that appear weather-sensitive and therefore may be influenced by climate change in the future. Methods: Data on infections in England and Wales from 1989 to 2014 were extracted from the Public Health England (PHE) SGSS surveillance database. We conducted a weekly, monthly and quarterly time series analysis of 277 pathogen serotypes. Each organism's time series was forecasted using the TBATS package in R, with seasonality detected using model fit statistics. Meteorological data hosted on the MEDMI Platform were extracted at a monthly resolution for 2001-2011. The organisms were then clustered by K-means into two groups based on cross correlation coefficients with the weather variables. Results: Examination of 12.9 million infection episodes found seasonal components in 91/277 (33%) organism serotypes. Salmonella showed seasonal and non-seasonal serotypes. These results were visualised in an online Rshiny application. Seasonal organisms were then clustered into two groups based on their correlations with weather. Group 1 had positive correlations with temperature (max, mean and min), sunshine and vapour pressure and inverse correlations with mean wind speed, relative humidity, ground frost and air frost. Group 2 had the opposite but also slight positive correlations with rainfall (mm, > 1 mm, > 10 mm). Conclusions: The detection of seasonality in pathogen time series data and the identification of relevant weather predictors can improve forecasting and public health planning. Big data analytics and online visualisation allow the relationship between pathogen incidence and weather patterns to be clarified.Medical Research Council (MRC)National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)National Institute of Health Research (NIHR

Acute high-intensity interval running increases markers of damage and permeability but not gastrointestinal symptoms.

Purpose: To investigate the effects of high-intensity interval (HIIT) running on markers of gastrointestinal (GI) damage and permeability alongside subjective symptoms of GI discomfort. Methods: Eleven male runners completed an acute bout of HIIT (eighteen 400 m runs at 120%O2max ) where markers of GI permeability, intestinal damage and GI discomfort symptoms were assessed and compared with resting conditions. Results: Compared to rest, HIIT significantly increased serum lactulose:rhamnose ratio (0.051 ± 0.016 vs. 0.031 ± 0.021, p = 0.0047; 95% CI = 0.006 - 0.036) and sucrose concentrations (0.388 ± 0.217 vs 0.137 ± 0.148 mg.l-1; p < 0.001; 95% CI = 0.152 - 0.350). In contrast, urinary lactulose:rhamnose (0.032 ± 0.005 vs 0.030 ± 0.005; p = 0.3; 95% CI = -0.012 - 0.009) or sucrose concentrations (0.169 ± 0.168% vs 0.123 ± 0.120%; p = 0.54; 95% CI = -0.199 - 0.108) did not differ between HIIT and resting conditions. Plasma I-FABP was significantly increased (p < 0.001) during and in the recovery period from HIIT whereas no changes were observed during rest. Mild-symptoms of GI discomfort, were reported immediately- and 24 h post-HIIT, although these symptoms did not correlate to GI permeability or I-FABP. Conclusion Acute HIIT increased GI permeability and intestinal I-FABP release, although these do not correlate with symptoms of GI discomfort. Furthermore, by using serum sampling, we provide data showing that it is possible to detect changes in intestinal permeability that is not observed using urinary sampling over a shorter time-period

Sorafenib dose escalation is not uniformly associated with blood pressure elevations in normotensive patients with advanced malignancies.

Hypertension after treatment with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor inhibitors is associated with superior treatment outcomes for advanced cancer patients. To determine whether increased sorafenib doses cause incremental increases in blood pressure (BP), we measured 12-h ambulatory BP in 41 normotensive advanced solid tumor patients in a randomized dose-escalation study. After 7 days' treatment (400 mg b.i.d.), mean diastolic BP (DBP) increased in both study groups. After dose escalation, group A (400 mg t.i.d.) had marginally significant further increase in 12-h mean DBP (P = 0.053), but group B (600 mg b.i.d.) did not achieve statistically significant increases (P = 0.25). Within groups, individuals varied in BP response to sorafenib dose escalation, but these differences did not correlate with changes in steady-state plasma sorafenib concentrations. These findings in normotensive patients suggest BP is a complex pharmacodynamic biomarker of VEGF inhibition. Patients have intrinsic differences in sensitivity to sorafenib's BP-elevating effects

Glutamine supplementation reduces markers of intestinal permeability during running in the heat in a dose-dependent manner.

PURPOSE: To examine the dose-response effects of acute glutamine supplementation on markers of gastrointestinal (GI) permeability, damage and, secondary, subjective symptoms of GI discomfort in response to running in the heat. METHODS: Ten recreationally active males completed a total of four exercise trials; a placebo trial and three glutamine trials at 0.25, 0.5 and 0.9 g kg(-1) of fat-free mass (FFM) consumed 2 h before exercise. Each exercise trial consisted of a 60-min treadmill run at 70% of [Formula: see text] in an environmental chamber set at 30 °C. GI permeability was measured using ratio of lactulose to rhamnose (L:R) in serum. Plasma glutamine and intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP) concentrations were determined pre and post exercise. Subjective GI symptoms were assessed 45 min and 24 h post-exercise. RESULTS: Relative to placebo, L:R was likely lower following 0.25 g kg(-1) (mean difference: - 0.023; ± 0.021) and 0.5 g kg(-1) (- 0.019; ± 0.019) and very likely following 0.9 g kg(- 1) (- 0.034; ± 0.024). GI symptoms were typically low and there was no effect of supplementation. DISCUSSION: Acute oral glutamine consumption attenuates GI permeability relative to placebo even at lower doses of 0.25 g kg(-1), although larger doses may be more effective. It remains unclear if this will lead to reductions in GI symptoms. Athletes competing in the heat may, therefore, benefit from acute glutamine supplementation prior to exercise in order to maintain gastrointestinal integrity

An effective theory for jet propagation in dense QCD matter: jet broadening and medium-induced bremsstrahlung

Two effects, jet broadening and gluon bremsstrahlung induced by the propagation of a highly energetic quark in dense QCD matter, are reconsidered from effective theory point of view. We modify the standard Soft Collinear Effective Theory (SCET) Lagrangian to include Glauber modes, which are needed to implement the interactions between the medium and the collinear fields. We derive the Feynman rules for this Lagrangian and show that it is invariant under soft and collinear gauge transformations. We find that the newly constructed theory SCET$_{\rm G}$ recovers exactly the general result for the transverse momentum broadening of jets. In the limit where the radiated gluons are significantly less energetic than the parent quark, we obtain a jet energy-loss kernel identical to the one discussed in the reaction operator approach to parton propagation in matter. In the framework of SCET$_{\rm G}$ we present results for the fully-differential bremsstrahlung spectrum for both the incoherent and the Landau-Pomeranchunk-Migdal suppressed regimes beyond the soft-gluon approximation. Gauge invariance of the physics results is demonstrated explicitly by performing the calculations in both the light-cone and covariant $R_{\xi}$ gauges. We also show how the process-dependent medium-induced radiative corrections factorize from the jet production cross section on the example of the quark jets considered here.Comment: 52 pages, 15 pdf figures, as published in JHE

Probiotic supplementation increases carbohydrate metabolism in trained male cyclists: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over trial.

We hypothesised that probiotic supplementation (PRO) increases the absorption and oxidation of orally ingested maltodextrin during 2h endurance cycling, thereby sparing muscle glycogen for a subsequent time trial (simulating a road race). Measurements were made of lipid and carbohydrate oxidation, plasma metabolites and insulin, gastrointestinal permeability, and subjective symptoms of discomfort. Seven male cyclists were randomized to PRO (bacterial composition given in methods) or placebo (PLC) for four weeks, separated by a 14-day washout period. After each period, cyclists consumed a 10% maltodextrin solution (initial 8 mL·kg-1 bolus and 2 mL·kg-1 every 15 min) while exercising for 2h at 55% Wmax followed by a 100 kJ time trial. PRO resulted in small increases in peak oxidation rates of the ingested maltodextrin (0.84 ± 0.10 vs 0.77 ± 0.09 g·min-1, P = 0.016), and mean total carbohydrate oxidation (2.20 ± 0.25 vs 1.87 ± 0.39 g·min-1, P = 0.038), while fat oxidation was reduced (0.40 ± 0.11 vs 0.55 ± 0.10 g·min-1, P = 0.021) . During PRO small but significant increases were seen in glucose absorption, plasma glucose and insulin concentration and decreases in NEFA and glycerol. Differences between markers of GI damage and permeability and time trial performance were not significant (P > 0.05). In contrast to the hypothesis, PRO led to minimal increases in absorption and oxidation of the ingested maltodextrin and small reductions in fat oxidation, while having no effect on subsequent time trial performance

Beyond climate change and health: Integrating broader environmental change and natural environments for public health protection and promotion in the UK

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record.Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of "critical friends" has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health.The research was funded in part by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office (HPRU-2012-10016); the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the MEDMI Project (MR/K019341/1, https: //www.data-mashup.org.uk); the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Project (ES/P011489/1); and the NIHR Knowledge Mobilisation Research Fellowship for Maguire

Health services research in the public healthcare system in Hong Kong: An analysis of over 1 million antihypertensive prescriptions between 2004-2007 as an example of the potential and pitfalls of using routinely collected electronic patient data

&lt;b&gt;Objectives&lt;/b&gt; Increasing use is being made of routinely collected electronic patient data in health services research. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential usefulness of a comprehensive database used routinely in the public healthcare system in Hong Kong, using antihypertensive drug prescriptions in primary care as an example.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; Data on antihypertensive drug prescriptions were retrieved from the electronic Clinical Management System (e-CMS) of all primary care clinics run by the Health Authority (HA) in the New Territory East (NTE) cluster of Hong Kong between January 2004 and June 2007. Information was also retrieved on patients’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, visit type (new or follow-up), and relevant diseases (International Classification of Primary Care, ICPC codes). &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; 1,096,282 visit episodes were accessed, representing 93,450 patients. Patients’ demographic and socio-economic details were recorded in all cases. Prescription details for anti-hypertensive drugs were missing in only 18 patients (0.02%). However, ICPC-code was missing for 36,409 patients (39%). Significant independent predictors of whether disease codes were applied included patient age &gt; 70 years (OR 2.18), female gender (OR 1.20), district of residence (range of ORs in more rural districts; 0.32-0.41), type of clinic (OR in Family Medicine Specialist Clinics; 1.45) and type of visit (OR follow-up visit; 2.39). &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; In the 57,041 patients with an ICPC-code, uncomplicated hypertension (ICPC K86) was recorded in 45,859 patients (82.1%). The characteristics of these patients were very similar to those of the non-coded group, suggesting that most non-coded patients on antihypertensive drugs are likely to have uncomplicated hypertension. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; The e-CMS database of the HA in Hong Kong varies in quality in terms of recorded information. Potential future health services research using demographic and prescription information is highly feasible but for disease-specific research dependant on ICPC codes some caution is warranted. In the case of uncomplicated hypertension, future research on pharmaco-epidemiology (such as prescription patterns) and clinical issues (such as side-effects of medications on metabolic parameters) seems feasible given the large size of the data set and the comparability of coded and non-coded patients

Targeted prevention of common mental health disorders in university students: randomised controlled trial of a transdiagnostic trait-focused web-based intervention

Background: A large proportion of university students show symptoms of common mental disorders, such as depression, anxiety, substance use disorders and eating disorders. Novel interventions are required that target underlying factors of multiple disorders.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Aims: To evaluate the efficacy of a transdiagnostic trait-focused web-based intervention aimed at reducing symptoms of common mental disorders in university students.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Method: Students were recruited online (n = 1047, age: M = 21.8, SD = 4.2) and categorised into being at high or low risk for mental disorders based on their personality traits. Participants were allocated to a cognitive-behavioural trait-focused (n = 519) or a control intervention (n = 528) using computerised simple randomisation. Both interventions were fully automated and delivered online (trial registration: ISRCTN14342225). Participants were blinded and outcomes were self-assessed at baseline, at 6 weeks and at 12 weeks after registration. Primary outcomes were current depression and anxiety, assessed on the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ9) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD7). Secondary outcome measures focused on alcohol use, disordered eating, and other outcomes.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results: Students at high risk were successfully identified using personality indicators and reported poorer mental health. A total of 520 students completed the 6-week follow-up and 401 students completed the 12-week follow-up. Attrition was high across intervention groups, but comparable to other web-based interventions. Mixed effects analyses revealed that at 12-week follow up the trait-focused intervention reduced depression scores by 3.58 (p&#60;.001, 95%CI [5.19, 1.98]) and anxiety scores by 2.87 (p = .018, 95%CI [1.31, 4.43]) in students at high risk. In high-risk students, between group effect sizes were 0.58 (depression) and 0.42 (anxiety). In addition, self-esteem was improved. No changes were observed regarding the use of alcohol or disordered eating.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions This study suggests that a transdiagnostic web-based intervention for university students targeting underlying personality risk factors may be a promising way of preventing common mental disorders with a low-intensity intervention

Proteomic identification of immunodiagnostic antigens for <i>Trypanosoma vivax </i>infections in cattle and generation of a proof-of-concept lateral flow test diagnostic device

Trypanosoma vivax is one of the causative agents of Animal African Trypanosomosis in cattle, which is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and transmitted primarily by the bite of the tsetse fly vector. The parasite can also be mechanically transmitted, and this has allowed its spread to South America. Diagnostics are limited for this parasite and in farm settings diagnosis is mainly symptom-based. We set out to identify, using a proteomic approach, candidate diagnostic antigens to develop into an easy to use pen-side lateral flow test device. Two related members the invariant surface glycoprotein family, TvY486_0045500 and TvY486_0019690, were selected. Segments of these antigens, lacking N-terminal signal peptides and C-terminal transmembrane domains, were expressed in E. coli. Both were developed into ELISA tests and one of them, TvY486_0045500, was developed into a lateral flow test prototype. The tests were all evaluated blind with 113 randomised serum samples, taken from 37 calves before and after infection with T. vivax or T. congolense. The TvY486_0045500 and TvY486_0019690 ELISA tests gave identical sensitivity and specificity values for T. vivax infection of 94.5% (95% CI, 86.5% to 98.5%) and 88.0% (95% CI, 75.7% to 95.5%), respectively, and the TvY486_0045500 lateral flow test prototype a sensitivity and specificity of 92.0% (95% CI, 83.4% to 97.0%) and 89.8% (95% CI, 77.8% to 96.6%), respectively. These data suggest that recombinant TvY486_0045500 shows promise for the development of a pen-side lateral flow test for the diagnosis of T. vivax animal African trypanosomosis