A mathematical modelling study of an athlete's sprint time when towing a weighted sled

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12283-013-0114-2.This study used a mathematical model to examine the effects of the sled, the running surface, and the athlete on sprint time when towing a weighted sled. Simulations showed that ratio scaling is an appropriate method of normalising the weight of the sled for athletes of different body size. The relationship between sprint time and the weight of the sled was almost linear, as long as the sled was not excessively heavy. The athlete’s sprint time and rate of increase in sprint time were greater on running surfaces with a greater coefficient of friction, and on any given running surface an athlete with a greater power-to-weight ratio had a lower rate of increase in sprint time. The angle of the tow cord did not have a substantial effect on an athlete’s sprint time. This greater understanding should help coaches set the training intensity experienced by an athlete when performing a sled-towing exercise

Global data for ecology and epidemiology: a novel algorithm for temporal Fourier processing MODIS data

Background. Remotely-sensed environmental data from earth-orbiting satellites are increasingly used to model the distribution and abundance of both plant and animal species, especially those of economic or conservation importance. Time series of data from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on-board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites offer the potential to capture environmental thermal and vegetation seasonality, through temporal Fourier analysis, more accurately than was previously possible using the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor data. MODIS data are composited over 8- or 16-day time intervals that pose unique problems for temporal Fourier analysis. Applying standard techniques to MODIS data can introduce errors of up to 30% in the estimation of the amplitudes and phases of the Fourier harmonics. Methodology/Principal Findings. We present a novel spline-based algorithm that overcomes the processing problems of composited MODIS data. The algorithm is tested on artificial data generated using randomly selected values of both amplitudes and phases, and provides an accurate estimate of the input variables under all conditions. The algorithm was then applied to produce layers that capture the seasonality in MODIS data for the period from 2001 to 2005. Conclusions/Significance. Global temporal Fourier processed images of 1 km MODIS data for Middle Infrared Reflectance, day- and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) are presented for ecological and epidemiological applications. The finer spatial and temporal resolution, combined with the greater geolocational and spectral accuracy of the MODIS instruments, compared with previous multi-temporal data sets, mean that these data may be used with greater confidence in species' distribution modelling

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.</p

Water-Borne Cues of a Non-Indigenous Seaweed Mediate Grazer-Deterrent Responses in Native Seaweeds, but Not Vice Versa

Plants optimise their resistance to herbivores by regulating deterrent responses on demand. Induction of anti-herbivory defences can occur directly in grazed plants or from emission of risk cues to the environment, which modifies interactions of adjacent plants with, for instance, their consumers. This study confirmed the induction of anti-herbivory responses by water-borne risk cues between adjoining con-specific seaweeds and firstly examined whether plant-plant signalling also exists among adjacent hetero-specific seaweeds. Furthermore, differential abilities and geographic variation in plant-plant signalling by a non-indigenous seaweed as well as native seaweeds were assessed. Twelve-day induction experiments using the non-indigenous seaweed Sargassum muticum were conducted in the laboratory in Portugal and Germany with one local con-familiar (Portugal: Cystoseira humilis, Germany: Halidrys siliquosa) and hetero-familiar native species (Portugal: Fucus spiralis, Germany: F. vesiculosus). All seaweeds were grazed by a local isopod species (Portugal: Stenosoma nadejda, Germany: Idotea baltica) and were positioned upstream of con- and hetero-specific seaweeds. Grazing-induced modification in seaweed traits were tested in three-day feeding assays between cue-exposed and cue-free ( = control) pieces of both fresh and reconstituted seaweeds. Both Fucus species reduced their palatability when positioned downstream of isopod-grazed con-specifics. Yet, the palatability of non-indigenous S. muticum remained constant in the presence of upstream grazed con-specifics and native hetero-specifics. In contrast, both con-familiar (but neither hetero-familiar) native species reduced palatability when located downstream of grazed S. muticum. Similar patterns of grazer-deterrent responses to water-borne cues were observed on both European shores, and were almost identical between assays using fresh and reconstituted seaweeds. Hence, seaweeds may use plant-plant signalling to optimise chemical resistance to consumers, though this ability appeared to be species-specific. Furthermore, this study suggests that native species may benefit more than a non-indigenous species from water-borne cue mediated reduction in consumption as only natives responded to signals emitted by hetero-specifics

Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Methods: Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Results: Average malaria incidence was 0.107 per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R2 = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R2 = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. Conclusions: The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity and spatially differentiation. Using the future fluctuated precipitation and the increased temperature, median malaria incidence in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 would significantly increase that it might increase 19 to 29 % in 2020, but currently China is in the malaria elimination phase, indicating that the effective strategies and actions had been taken. While the mean incidences will not increase even reduce due to the incidence reduction in high-risk regions but the simultaneous expansion of the high-risk areas

Patient characteristics and clinical management of patients with shoulder pain in U.S. primary care settings: Secondary data analysis of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey

BACKGROUND: Although shoulder pain is a commonly encountered problem in primary care, there are few studies examining its presenting characteristics and clinical management in this setting. METHODS: We performed secondary data analysis of 692 office visits for shoulder pain collected through the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (Survey years 1993–2000). Information on demographic characteristics, history and place of injury, and clinical management (physician order of imaging, physiotherapy, and steroid intraarticular injection) were examined. RESULTS: Shoulder pain was associated with an injury in one third (33.2% (230/692)) of office visits in this population of US primary care physicians. Males, and younger adults (age ≤ 52) more often associated their shoulder pain with previous injury, but there were no racial differences in injury status. Injury-related shoulder pain was related to work in over one-fifth (21.3% (43/202)) of visits. An x-ray was performed in 29.0% (164/566) of office visits, a finding that did not differ by gender, race, or by age status. Other imaging (CT scan, MRI, or ultrasound) was infrequently performed (6.5%, 37/566). Physiotherapy was ordered in 23.9% (135/566) of visits for shoulder pain. Younger adults and patients with a history of injury more often had physiotherapy ordered, but there was no significant difference in the ordering of physiotherapy by gender or race. Examination of the use of intraarticular injection was not possible with this data set. CONCLUSION: These data from the largest sample of patients with shoulder pain presenting to primary care settings offer insights into the presenting characteristics and clinical management of shoulder pain at the primary care level. The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey is a useful resource for examining the clinical management of specific symptoms in U.S. primary care offices

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasonography for deep vein thrombosis

Background Ultrasound (US) has largely replaced contrast venography as the definitive diagnostic test for deep vein thrombosis (DVT). We aimed to derive a definitive estimate of the diagnostic accuracy of US for clinically suspected DVT and identify study-level factors that might predict accuracy. Methods We undertook a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of diagnostic cohort studies that compared US to contrast venography in patients with suspected DVT. We searched Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Database of Reviews of Effectiveness, the ACP Journal Club, and citation lists (1966 to April 2004). Random effects meta-analysis was used to derive pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Random effects meta-regression was used to identify study-level covariates that predicted diagnostic performance. Results We identified 100 cohorts comparing US to venography in patients with suspected DVT. Overall sensitivity for proximal DVT (95% confidence interval) was 94.2% (93.2 to 95.0), for distal DVT was 63.5% (59.8 to 67.0), and specificity was 93.8% (93.1 to 94.4). Duplex US had pooled sensitivity of 96.5% (95.1 to 97.6) for proximal DVT, 71.2% (64.6 to 77.2) for distal DVT and specificity of 94.0% (92.8 to 95.1). Triplex US had pooled sensitivity of 96.4% (94.4 to 97.1%) for proximal DVT, 75.2% (67.7 to 81.6) for distal DVT and specificity of 94.3% (92.5 to 95.8). Compression US alone had pooled sensitivity of 93.8 % (92.0 to 95.3%) for proximal DVT, 56.8% (49.0 to 66.4) for distal DVT and specificity of 97.8% (97.0 to 98.4). Sensitivity was higher in more recently published studies and in cohorts with higher prevalence of DVT and more proximal DVT, and was lower in cohorts that reported interpretation by a radiologist. Specificity was higher in cohorts that excluded patients with previous DVT. No studies were identified that compared repeat US to venography in all patients. Repeat US appears to have a positive yield of 1.3%, with 89% of these being confirmed by venography. Conclusion Combined colour-doppler US techniques have optimal sensitivity, while compression US has optimal specificity for DVT. However, all estimates are subject to substantial unexplained heterogeneity. The role of repeat scanning is very uncertain and based upon limited data

Predictors of packed red cell transfusion after isolated primary coronary artery bypass grafting – The experience of a single cardiac center: A prospective observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Preoperative patients' characteristics can predict the need for perioperative blood component transfusion in cardiac surgical operations. The aim of this prospective observational study is to identify perioperative patient characteristics predicting the need for allogeneic packed red blood cell (PRBC) transfusion in isolated primary coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operations.</p> <p>Patients and Methods</p> <p>105 patients undergoing isolated, first-time CABG were reviewed for their preoperative variables and followed for intraoperative and postoperative data. Patients were 97 males and 8 females, with mean age 58.28 ± 10.97 years. Regression logistic analysis was used for identifying the strongest perioperative predictors of PRBC transfusion.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>PRBC transfusion was used in 71 patients (67.6%); 35 patients (33.3%) needed > 2 units and 14 (13.3%) of these needed > 4 units. Univariate analysis identified female gender, age > 65 years, body weight ≤ 70 Kg, BSA ≤ 1.75 m², BMI ≤ 25, preoperative hemoglobin ≤ 13 gm/dL, preoperative hematocrit ≤ 40%, serum creatinine > 100 μmol/L, Euro SCORE (standard/logistic) > 2, use of CPB, radial artery use, higher number of distal anastomoses, and postoperative chest tube drainage > 1000 mL as significant predictors. The strongest predictors using multivariate analysis were CPB use, hematocrit, body weight, and serum creatinine.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The predictors of PRBC transfusion after primary isolated CABG are use of CPB, hematocrit ≤ 40%, weight ≤ 70 Kg, and serum creatinine > 100 μmol/L. This leads to better utilization of blood bank resources and cost-efficient targeted use of expensive blood conservation modalities.</p

Can oral corticosteroids reduce the severity or duration of an acute cough, and the associated National Health Service and societal costs, in adults presenting to primary care?: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is one of the most common conditions managed internationally and is costly to health services and patients. Despite good evidence that antibiotics are not effective for improving the symptoms of uncomplicated LRTI, they are widely prescribed, contributing to antimicrobial resistance. Many of the symptoms observed in LRTI are mediated by inflammatory processes also observed in exacerbations of asthma, for which there is strong evidence of corticosteroid effectiveness. The primary aim of the OSAC (Oral Steroids for Acute Cough) Trial is to determine whether oral prednisolone (40 mg daily for 5 days) can reduce the duration of moderately bad (or worse) cough and the severity of all its associated symptoms on days 2 to 4 post-randomisation (day 1 is trial entry) by at least 20% in adults ≥18 years with acute LRTI presenting to primary care. Methods/design: OSAC is a two-arm, multi-centre, placebo-controlled, randomised superiority trial. The target sample size is 436 patients, which allows for a 20% dropout rate. Patients will be recruited from primary care sites (General Practitioner surgeries) across England and followed up until symptom resolution. The two primary clinical outcomes are the duration of moderately bad (or worse) cough, and the severity of all its associated symptoms on days 2 to 4 post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes include: antibiotic consumption; symptom burden; adverse events; participant satisfaction with treatment and intention to consult for future similar illnesses. A parallel economic evaluation will investigate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Discussion: Results from the OSAC trial will increase knowledge regarding the clinical and cost-effectiveness of corticosteroids for LRTI, and will establish the potential of a new treatment option that could substantially improve patient health. We have chosen a relatively high ‘efficacy dose’ as this will enable us to decide on the potential for further research into lower dose oral and/or inhaled corticosteroids. This trial will also contribute to a growing body of research investigating the natural course of this very common illness, as well as the effects of steroids on the undesirable inflammatory symptoms associated with infection. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN57309858 (31 January 2013)

Circadian Behaviour in Neuroglobin Deficient Mice

Neuroglobin (Ngb), a neuron-specific oxygen-binding globin with an unknown function, has been proposed to play a key role in neuronal survival. We have previously shown Ngb to be highly expressed in the rat suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN). The present study addresses the effect of Ngb deficiency on circadian behavior. Ngb-deficient and wild-type (wt) mice were placed in running wheels and their activity rhythms, endogenous period and response to light stimuli were investigated. The effect of Ngb deficiency on the expression of Period1 (Per1) and the immediate early gene Fos was determined after light stimulation at night and the neurochemical phenotype of Ngb expressing neurons in wt mice was characterized. Loss of Ngb function had no effect on overall circadian entrainment, but resulted in a significantly larger phase delay of circadian rhythm upon light stimulation at early night. A light-induced increase in Per1, but not Fos, gene expression was observed in Ngb-deficient mice. Ngb expressing neurons which co-stored Gastrin Releasing Peptide (GRP) and were innervated from the eye and the geniculo-hypothalamic tract expressed FOS after light stimulation. No PER1 expression was observed in Ngb-positive neurons. The present study demonstrates for the first time that the genetic elimination of Ngb does not affect core clock function but evokes an increased behavioural response to light concomitant with increased Per1 gene expression in the SCN at early night