Multi-Scale Simulation Modeling for Prevention and Public Health Management of Diabetes in Pregnancy and Sequelae

Diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) is an increasing public health priority in the Australian Capital Territory, particularly due to its impact on risk for developing Type 2 diabetes. While earlier diagnostic screening results in greater capacity for early detection and treatment, such benefits must be balanced with the greater demands this imposes on public health services. To address such planning challenges, a multi-scale hybrid simulation model of DIP was built to explore the interaction of risk factors and capture the dynamics underlying the development of DIP. The impact of interventions on health outcomes at the physiological, health service and population level is measured. Of particular central significance in the model is a compartmental model representing the underlying physiological regulation of glycemic status based on beta-cell dynamics and insulin resistance. The model also simulated the dynamics of continuous BMI evolution, glycemic status change during pregnancy and diabetes classification driven by the individual-level physiological model. We further modeled public health service pathways providing diagnosis and care for DIP to explore the optimization of resource use during service delivery. The model was extensively calibrated against empirical data.Comment: 10 pages, SBP-BRiMS 201

Resection of the liver for colorectal carcinoma metastases - A multi-institutional study of long-term survivors

In this review of a collected series of patients undergoing hepatic resection for colorectal metastases, 100 patients were found to have survived greater than five years from the time of resection. Of these 100 long-term survivors, 71 remain disease-free through the last follow-up, 19 recurred prior to five years, and ten recurred after five years. Patient characteristics that may have contributed to survival were examined. Procedures performed included five trisegmentectomies, 32 lobectomies, 16 left lateral segmentectomies, and 45 wedge resections. The margin of resection was recorded in 27 patients, one of whom had a positive margin, nine of whom had a less than or equal to 1-cm margin, and 17 of whom had a greater than 1-cm margin. Eighty-one patients had a solitary metastasis to the liver, 11 patients had two metastases, one patient had three metastases, and four patients had four metastases. Thirty patients had Stage C primary carcinoma, 40 had Stage B primary carcinoma, and one had Stage A primarycarcinoma. The disease-free interval from the time of colon resection to the time of liver resection was less than one year in 65 patients, and greater than one year in 34 patients. Three patients had bilobar metastases. Four of the patients had extrahepatic disease resected simultaneously with the liver resection. Though several contraindications to hepatic resection have been proposed in the past, five-year survival has been found in patients with extrahepatic disease resected simultaneously, patients with bilobar metastases, patients with multiple metastases, and patients with positive margins. Five-year disease-free survivors are also present in each of these subsets. It is concluded that five-year survival is possible in the presence of reported contraindications to resection, and therefore that the decision to resect the liver must be individualized. © 1988 American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons

Flavour physics from an approximate U(2)^3 symmetry

The quark sector of the Standard Model exhibits an approximate U(2)^3 flavour symmetry. This symmetry, broken in specific directions dictated by minimality, can explain the success of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa picture of flavour mixing and CP violation, confirmed by the data so far, while allowing for observable deviations from it, as expected in most models of ElectroWeak Symmetry Breaking. Building on previous work in the specific context of supersymmetry, we analyze the expected effects and we quantify the current bounds in a general Effective Field Theory framework. As a further relevant example we then show how the U(2)^3 symmetry and its breaking can be implemented in a generic composite Higgs model and we make a first analysis of its peculiar consequences. We also discuss how some partial extension of U(2)^3 to the lepton sector can arise, both in general and in composite Higgs models. An optimistic though conceivable interpretation of the considerations developed in this paper gives reasons to think that new physics searches in the flavour sector may be about to explore an interesting realm of phenomena.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure

Collaborative development of predictive toxicology applications

OpenTox provides an interoperable, standards-based Framework for the support of predictive toxicology data management, algorithms, modelling, validation and reporting. It is relevant to satisfying the chemical safety assessment requirements of the REACH legislation as it supports access to experimental data, (Quantitative) Structure-Activity Relationship models, and toxicological information through an integrating platform that adheres to regulatory requirements and OECD validation principles. Initial research defined the essential components of the Framework including the approach to data access, schema and management, use of controlled vocabularies and ontologies, architecture, web service and communications protocols, and selection and integration of algorithms for predictive modelling. OpenTox provides end-user oriented tools to non-computational specialists, risk assessors, and toxicological experts in addition to Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for developers of new applications. OpenTox actively supports public standards for data representation, interfaces, vocabularies and ontologies, Open Source approaches to core platform components, and community-based collaboration approaches, so as to progress system interoperability goals

Calibration of GENEActiv accelerometer wrist cut-points for the assessment of physical activity intensity of pre-school aged children

This study sought to validate cut-points for use of wrist worn GENEActiv accelerometer data, to analyse preschool children’s (4 to 5 year olds) physical activity (PA) levels via calibration with oxygen consumption values (VO2). This was a laboratory based calibration study. Twenty-one preschool children, aged 4.7 ± 0.5 years old, completed six activities (ranging from lying supine to running) whilst wearing the GENEActiv accelerometers at two locations (left and right wrist), these being the participants’ non-dominant and dominant wrist, and a Cortex face mask for gas analysis. VO2 data was used for the assessment of criterion validity. Location specific activity intensity cut points were established via Receiver Operator Characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. The GENEActiv accelerometers, irrespective of their location, accurately discriminated between all PA intensities (sedentary, light, and moderate and above), with the dominant wrist monitor providing a slightly more precise discrimination at light PA and the non-dominant at the sedentary behaviour and moderate and above intensity levels (Area Under the Curve (AUC) for non-dominant = 0.749-0.993, compared to AUC dominant = 0.760-0.988). Conclusion: This study establishes wrist-worn physical activity cut points for the GENEActiv accelerometer in pre-schoolers.N/

Importance of factors determining the effective lifetime of a mass, long-lasting, insecticidal net distribution: a sensitivity analysis

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) reduce malaria transmission by protecting individuals from infectious bites, and by reducing mosquito survival. In recent years, millions of LLINs have been distributed across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Over time, LLINs decay physically and chemically and are destroyed, making repeated interventions necessary to prevent a resurgence of malaria. Because its effects on transmission are important (more so than the effects of individual protection), estimates of the lifetime of mass distribution rounds should be based on the effective length of epidemiological protection. METHODS: Simulation models, parameterised using available field data, were used to analyse how the distribution's effective lifetime depends on the transmission setting and on LLIN characteristics. Factors considered were the pre-intervention transmission level, initial coverage, net attrition, and both physical and chemical decay. An ensemble of 14 stochastic individual-based model variants for malaria in humans was used, combined with a deterministic model for malaria in mosquitoes. RESULTS: The effective lifetime was most sensitive to the pre-intervention transmission level, with a lifetime of almost 10 years at an entomological inoculation rate of two infectious bites per adult per annum (ibpapa), but of little more than 2 years at 256 ibpapa. The LLIN attrition rate and the insecticide decay rate were the next most important parameters. The lifetime was surprisingly insensitive to physical decay parameters, but this could change as physical integrity gains importance with the emergence and spread of pyrethroid resistance. CONCLUSIONS: The strong dependency of the effective lifetime on the pre-intervention transmission level indicated that the required distribution frequency may vary more with the local entomological situation than with LLIN quality or the characteristics of the distribution system. This highlights the need for malaria monitoring both before and during intervention programmes, particularly since there are likely to be strong variations between years and over short distances. The majority of SSA's population falls into exposure categories where the lifetime is relatively long, but because exposure estimates are highly uncertain, it is necessary to consider subsequent interventions before the end of the expected effective lifetime based on an imprecise transmission measur

Renal histomorphology in dogs with pyometra and control dogs, and long term clinical outcome with respect to signs of kidney disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Age-related changes in renal histomorphology are described, while the presence of glomerulonephritis in dogs with pyometra is controversial in current literature.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Dogs with pyometra were examined retrospectively for evidence of secondary renal damage and persisting renal disease through two retrospective studies. In Study 1, light microscopic lesions of renal tissue were graded and compared in nineteen dogs with pyometra and thirteen age-matched control bitches. In Study 2, forty-one owners of dogs with pyometra were interviewed approximately 8 years after surgery for evidence ofclinical signs of renal failure in order to document causes of death/euthanasia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Interstitial inflammation and tubular atrophy were more pronounced in dogs with pyometra than in the control animals. Glomerular lesions classified as glomerular sclerosis were present in both groups. No unequivocal light microscopic features of glomerulonephritis were observed in bitches in any of the groups.</p> <p>Two bitches severely proteinuric at the time of surgery had developed end stage renal disease within 3 years. In five of the bitches polyuria persisted after surgery. Most bitches did not show signs of kidney disease at the time of death/euthanasia.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Tubulointerstitial inflammation was observed, but glomerular damage beyond age-related changes could not be demonstrated by light microscopy in the dogs with pyometra. However, severe proteinuria after surgery may predispose to development of renal failure.</p

Patterns of adiposity, vascular phenotypes and cognitive function in the 1946 British Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between long-term exposure to whole body or central obesity and cognitive function, as well as its potential determinants, remain controversial. In this study, we assessed (1) the potential impact of 30 years exposure to different patterns of whole body and central adiposity on cognitive function at 60-64 years, (2) whether trajectories of central adiposity can provide additional information on later cognitive function compared to trajectories of whole body adiposity, and (3) the influence of vascular phenotypes on these associations. METHODS: The study included 1249 participants from the prospective cohort MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and vascular (carotid intima-media thickness, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity) and cognitive function (memory, processing speed, reaction time) data, at 60-64 years, were used to assess the associations between different patterns of adult WC or BMI (from 36 years of age) and late midlife cognitive performance, as well as the proportion of this association explained by cardiovascular phenotypes. RESULTS: Longer exposure to elevated WC was related to lower memory performance (p < 0.001 for both) and longer choice reaction time (p = 0.003). A faster gain of WC between 36 and 43 years of age was associated with the largest change in reaction time and memory test (P < 0.05 for all). Similar associations were observed when patterns of WC were substituted with patterns of BMI, but when WC and BMI were included in the same model, only patterns of WC remained significantly associated with cognitive function. Participants who dropped one BMI category and maintained a lower BMI had similar memory performance to those of normal weight during the whole follow-up. Conversely, those who dropped and subsequently regained one BMI category had a memory function similar to those with 30 years exposure to elevated BMI. Adjustment for vascular phenotypes, levels of cardiovascular risk factors, physical activity, education, childhood cognition and socioeconomic position did not affect these associations. CONCLUSIONS: Longer exposure to elevated WC or BMI and faster WC or BMI gains between 36 and 43 years are related to lower cognitive function at 60-64 years. Patterns of WC in adulthood could provide additional information in predicting late midlife cognitive function than patterns of BMI. The acquisition of an adverse cardiovascular phenotype associated with adiposity is unlikely to account for these relationships

Simulated Impact of RTS,S/AS01 Vaccination Programs in the Context of Changing Malaria Transmission

INTRODUCTION: The RTS,S/AS01 pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine is in phase III clinical trials. It is critical to anticipate where and how it should be implemented if trials are successful. Such planning may be complicated by changing levels of malaria transmission. METHODS/RESULTS: Computer simulations were used to examine RTS,S/AS01 impact, using a vaccine profile based on phase II trial results, and assuming that protection decays only slowly. Settings were simulated in which baseline transmission (in the absence of vaccine) was fixed or varied between 2 and 20 infectious mosquito bites per person per annum (ibpa) over ten years. Four delivery strategies were studied: routine infant immunization (EPI), EPI plus infant catch-up, EPI plus school-based campaigns, and EPI plus mass campaigns. Impacts in changing transmission settings were similar to those in fixed settings. Assuming a persistent effect of vaccination, at 2 ibpa, the vaccine averted approximately 5-7 deaths per 1000 doses of vaccine when delivered via mass campaigns, but the benefit was less at higher transmission levels. EPI, catch-up and school-based strategies averted 2-3 deaths per 1000 doses in settings with 2 ibpa. In settings where transmission was decreasing or increasing, EPI, catch-up and school-based strategies averted approximately 3-4 deaths per 1000 doses. DISCUSSION: Where transmission is changing, it appears to be sufficient to consider simulations of pre-erythrocytic vaccine impact at a range of initial transmission levels. At 2 ibpa, mass campaigns averted the most deaths and reduced transmission, but this requires further study. If delivered via EPI, RTS,S/AS01 could avert approximately 6-11 deaths per 1000 vaccinees in all examined settings, similar to estimates for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in African infants. These results support RTS,S/AS01 implementation via EPI, for example alongside vector control interventions, providing that the phase III trials provide support for our assumptions about efficacy

ACL injury prevention, more effective with a different way of motor learning?

What happens to the transference of learning proper jump-landing technique in isolation when an individual is expected to perform at a competitive level yet tries to maintain proper jump-landing technique? This is the key question for researchers, physical therapists, athletic trainers and coaches involved in ACL injury prevention in athletes. The need for ACL injury prevention is clear, however, in spite of these ongoing initiatives and reported early successes, ACL injury rates and the associated gender disparity have not diminished. One problem could be the difficulties with the measurements of injury rates and the difficulties with the implementation of thorough large scale injury prevention programs. A second issue could be the transition from conscious awareness during training sessions on technique in the laboratory to unexpected and automatic movements during a training or game involves complicated motor control adaptations. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the issue of motor learning in relation to ACL injury prevention and to post suggestions for future research. ACL injury prevention programs addressing explicit rules regarding desired landing positions by emphasizing proper alignment of the hip, knee, and ankle are reported in the literature. This may very well be a sensible way, but the use of explicit strategies may be less suitable for the acquisition of the control of complex motor skills (Maxwell et al. J Sports Sci 18:111-120, 2000). Sufficient literature on motor learning and it variations point in that direction