Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Leg disorders in broiler chickens : prevalence, risk factors and prevention

Broiler (meat) chickens have been subjected to intense genetic selection. In the past 50 years, broiler growth rates have increased by over 300% (from 25 g per day to 100 g per day). There is growing societal concern that many broiler chickens have impaired locomotion or are even unable to walk. Here we present the results of a comprehensive survey of commercial flocks which quantifies the risk factors for poor locomotion in broiler chickens.We assessed the walking ability of 51,000 birds, representing 4.8 million birds within 176 flocks.We also obtained information on approximately 150 different management factors associated with each flock. At a mean age of 40 days, over 27.6% of birds in our study showed poor locomotion and 3.3% were almost unable to walk. The high prevalence of poor locomotion occurred despite culling policies designed to remove severely lame birds from flocks. We show that the primary risk factors associated with impaired locomotion and poor leg health are those specifically associated with rate of growth. Factors significantly associated with high gait score included the age of the bird (older birds), visit (second visit to same flock), bird genotype, not feeding whole wheat, a shorter dark period during the day, higher stocking density at the time of assessment, no use of antibiotic, and the use of intact feed pellets. The welfare implications are profound. Worldwide approximately 261010 broilers are reared within similar husbandry systems.We identify a range of management factors that could be altered to reduce leg health problems, but implementation of these changes would be likely to reduce growth rate and production. A debate on the sustainability of current practice in the production of this important food source is required

Scintillator-based ion beam profiler for diagnosing laser-accelerated ion beams

Next generation intense, short-pulse laser facilities require new high repetition rate diagnostics for the detection of ionizing radiation. We have designed a new scintillator-based ion beam profiler capable of measuring the ion beam transverse profile for a number of discrete energy ranges. The optical response and emission characteristics of four common plastic scintillators has been investigated for a range of proton energies and fluxes. The scintillator light output (for 1 MeV > Ep < 28 MeV) was found to have a non-linear scaling with proton energy but a linear response to incident flux. Initial measurements with a prototype diagnostic have been successful, although further calibration work is required to characterize the total system response and limitations under the high flux, short pulse duration conditions of a typical high intensity laser-plasma interaction

Multiwavelength Observations of Pulsar Wind Nebulae

The extended nebulae formed as pulsar winds expand into their surroundings provide information about the composition of the winds, the injection history from the host pulsar, and the material into which the nebulae are expanding. Observations from across the electromagnetic spectrum provide constraints on the evolution of the nebulae, the density and composition of the surrounding ejecta, the geometry of the central engines, and the long-term fate of the energetic particles produced in these systems. Such observations reveal the presence of jets and wind termination shocks, time-varying compact emission structures, shocked supernova ejecta, and newly formed dust. Here I provide a broad overview of the structure of pulsar wind nebulae, with specific examples from observations extending from the radio band to very-high-energy gamma-rays that demonstrate our ability to constrain the history and ultimate fate of the energy released in the spin-down of young pulsars.Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures. Invited review to appear in Proc. of the inaugural ICREA Workshop on "The High-Energy Emission from Pulsars and their Systems" (2010), eds. N. Rea and D. Torres, (Springer Astrophysics and Space Science series

An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation

BACKGROUND PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. METHODS Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. RESULTS In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40. CONCLUSIONS The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer

Measuring Energy Expenditure in Sub-Adult and Hatchling Sea Turtles via Accelerometry

Measuring the metabolic of sea turtles is fundamental to understanding their ecology yet the presently available methods are limited. Accelerometry is a relatively new technique for estimating metabolic rate that has shown promise with a number of species but its utility with air-breathing divers is not yet established. The present study undertakes laboratory experiments to investigate whether rate of oxygen uptake (o2) at the surface in active sub-adult green turtles Chelonia mydas and hatchling loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta correlates with overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA), a derivative of acceleration used as a proxy for metabolic rate. Six green turtles (25–44 kg) and two loggerhead turtles (20 g) were instrumented with tri-axial acceleration logging devices and placed singly into a respirometry chamber. The green turtles were able to submerge freely within a 1.5 m deep tank and the loggerhead turtles were tethered in water 16 cm deep so that they swam at the surface. A significant prediction equation for mean o2 over an hour in a green turtle from measures of ODBA and mean flipper length (R2 = 0.56) returned a mean estimate error across turtles of 8.0%. The range of temperatures used in the green turtle experiments (22–30°C) had only a small effect on o2. A o2-ODBA equation for the loggerhead hatchling data was also significant (R2 = 0.67). Together these data indicate the potential of the accelerometry technique for estimating energy expenditure in sea turtles, which may have important applications in sea turtle diving ecology, and also in conservation such as assessing turtle survival times when trapped underwater in fishing nets

Ovine pedomics : the first study of the ovine foot 16S rRNA-based microbiome

We report the first study of the bacterial microbiome of ovine interdigital skin based on 16S rRNA by pyrosequencing and conventional cloning with Sanger-sequencing. Three flocks were selected, one a flock with no signs of footrot or interdigital dermatitis, a second flock with interdigital dermatitis alone and a third flock with both interdigital dermatitis and footrot. The sheep were classified as having either healthy interdigital skin (H), interdigital dermatitis (ID) or virulent footrot (VFR). The ovine interdigital skin bacterial community varied significantly by flock and clinical condition. The diversity and richness of operational taxonomic units was greater in tissue from sheep with ID than H or VFR affected sheep. Actinobacteria, Bacteriodetes, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria were the most abundant phyla comprising 25 genera. Peptostreptococcus, Corynebacterium and Staphylococcus were associated with H, ID and VFR respectively. Sequences of Dichelobacter nodosus, the causal agent of ovine footrot, were not amplified due to mismatches in the 16S rRNA universal forward primer (27F). A specific real time PCR assay was used to demonstrate the presence of D. nodosus which was detected in all samples including the flock with no signs of ID or VFR. Sheep with ID had significantly higher numbers of D. nodosus (104-109 cells/g tissue) than those with H or VFR feet

Effects of ocean acidification on invertebrate settlement at volcanic CO<inf>2</inf> vents

We present the first study of the effects of ocean acidification on settlement of benthic invertebrates and microfauna. Artificial collectors were placed for 1 month along pH gradients at CO2 vents off Ischia (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). Seventy-nine taxa were identified from six main taxonomic groups (foraminiferans, nematodes, polychaetes, molluscs, crustaceans and chaetognaths). Calcareous foraminiferans, serpulid polychaetes, gastropods and bivalves showed highly significant reductions in recruitment to the collectors as pCO2 rose from normal (336-341 ppm, pH 8.09-8.15) to high levels (886-5,148 ppm) causing acidified conditions near the vents (pH 7.08-7.79). Only the syllid polychaete Syllis prolifera had higher abundances at the most acidified station, although a wide range of polychaetes and small crustaceans was able to settle and survive under these conditions. A few taxa (Amphiglena mediterranea, Leptochelia dubia, Caprella acanthifera) were particularly abundant at stations acidified by intermediate amounts of CO2 (pH 7. 41-7.99). These results show that increased levels of CO2 can profoundly affect the settlement of a wide range of benthic organisms. © 2010 Springer-Verlag