The future burden of lung cancer attributable to current modifiable behaviours: a pooled study of seven Australian cohorts

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of preventable disease and differences in disease burden can inform public health action to improve health and health equity. We quantified the future lung cancer burden preventable by behavioural modifications across Australia. METHODS: We pooled seven Australian cohort studies (n = 367 058) and linked them to national registries to identify lung cancers and deaths. We estimated population attributable fractions and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for modifiable risk factors, using risk estimates from the cohort data and risk factor exposure distribution from contemporary national health surveys. RESULTS: During the first 10-year follow-up, there were 2025 incident lung cancers and 20 349 deaths. Stopping current smoking could prevent 53.7% (95% CI, 50.0-57.2%) of lung cancers over 40 years and 18.3% (11.0-25.1%) in 10 years. The smoking-attributable burden is highest in males, those who smoke <20 cigarettes per day, are <75 years of age, unmarried, of lower educational attainment, live in remote areas or are healthy weight. Increasing physical activity and fruit consumption, if causal, could prevent 15.6% (6.9-23.4%) and 7.5% (1.3-13.3%) of the lung cancer burden, respectively. Jointly, the three behaviour modifications could prevent up to 63.0% (58.0-67.5%) of lung cancers in 40 years, and 31.2% (20.9-40.1%) or 43 300 cancers in 10 years. The preventable burden is highest among those with multiple risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains responsible for the highest burden of lung cancer in Australia. The uneven burden distribution distinguishes subgroups that could benefit the most from activities to control the world's deadliest cancer

Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST)- sitting-up vs lying-flat positioning of patients with acute stroke: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Positioning a patient lying-flat in the acute phase of ischaemic stroke may improve recovery and reduce disability, but such a possibility has not been formally tested in a randomised trial. We therefore initiated the Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) to determine the effects of lying-flat (0°) compared with sitting-up (≥30°) head positioning in the first 24 hours of hospital admission for patients with acute stroke. Methods/Design We plan to conduct an international, cluster randomised, crossover, open, blinded outcome-assessed clinical trial involving 140 study hospitals (clusters) with established acute stroke care programs. Each hospital will be randomly assigned to sequential policies of lying-flat (0°) or sitting-up (≥30°) head position as a ‘business as usual’ stroke care policy during the first 24 hours of admittance. Each hospital is required to recruit 60 consecutive patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), and all patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (an estimated average of 10), in the first randomised head position policy before crossing over to the second head position policy with a similar recruitment target. After collection of in-hospital clinical and management data and 7-day outcomes, central trained blinded assessors will conduct a telephone disability assessment with the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. The primary outcome for analysis is a shift (defined as improvement) in death or disability on this scale. For a cluster size of 60 patients with AIS per intervention and with various assumptions including an intracluster correlation coefficient of 0.03, a sample size of 16,800 patients at 140 centres will provide 90 % power (α 0.05) to detect at least a 16 % relative improvement (shift) in an ordinal logistic regression analysis of the primary outcome. The treatment effect will also be assessed in all patients with ICH who are recruited during each treatment study period. Discussion HeadPoST is a large international clinical trial in which we will rigorously evaluate the effects of different head positioning in patients with acute stroke. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02162017 (date of registration: 27 April 2014); ANZCTR identifier: ACTRN12614000483651 (date of registration: 9 May 2014). Protocol version and date: version 2.2, 19 June 2014

Vertical Binocular Disparity is Encoded Implicitly within a Model Neuronal Population Tuned to Horizontal Disparity and Orientation

Primary visual cortex is often viewed as a “cyclopean retina”, performing the initial encoding of binocular disparities between left and right images. Because the eyes are set apart horizontally in the head, binocular disparities are predominantly horizontal. Yet, especially in the visual periphery, a range of non-zero vertical disparities do occur and can influence perception. It has therefore been assumed that primary visual cortex must contain neurons tuned to a range of vertical disparities. Here, I show that this is not necessarily the case. Many disparity-selective neurons are most sensitive to changes in disparity orthogonal to their preferred orientation. That is, the disparity tuning surfaces, mapping their response to different two-dimensional (2D) disparities, are elongated along the cell's preferred orientation. Because of this, even if a neuron's optimal 2D disparity has zero vertical component, the neuron will still respond best to a non-zero vertical disparity when probed with a sub-optimal horizontal disparity. This property can be used to decode 2D disparity, even allowing for realistic levels of neuronal noise. Even if all V1 neurons at a particular retinotopic location are tuned to the expected vertical disparity there (for example, zero at the fovea), the brain could still decode the magnitude and sign of departures from that expected value. This provides an intriguing counter-example to the common wisdom that, in order for a neuronal population to encode a quantity, its members must be tuned to a range of values of that quantity. It demonstrates that populations of disparity-selective neurons encode much richer information than previously appreciated. It suggests a possible strategy for the brain to extract rarely-occurring stimulus values, while concentrating neuronal resources on the most commonly-occurring situations

Spatial Stereoresolution for Depth Corrugations May Be Set in Primary Visual Cortex

Stereo “3D” depth perception requires the visual system to extract binocular disparities between the two eyes' images. Several current models of this process, based on the known physiology of primary visual cortex (V1), do this by computing a piecewise-frontoparallel local cross-correlation between the left and right eye's images. The size of the “window” within which detectors examine the local cross-correlation corresponds to the receptive field size of V1 neurons. This basic model has successfully captured many aspects of human depth perception. In particular, it accounts for the low human stereoresolution for sinusoidal depth corrugations, suggesting that the limit on stereoresolution may be set in primary visual cortex. An important feature of the model, reflecting a key property of V1 neurons, is that the initial disparity encoding is performed by detectors tuned to locally uniform patches of disparity. Such detectors respond better to square-wave depth corrugations, since these are locally flat, than to sinusoidal corrugations which are slanted almost everywhere. Consequently, for any given window size, current models predict better performance for square-wave disparity corrugations than for sine-wave corrugations at high amplitudes. We have recently shown that this prediction is not borne out: humans perform no better with square-wave than with sine-wave corrugations, even at high amplitudes. The failure of this prediction raised the question of whether stereoresolution may actually be set at later stages of cortical processing, perhaps involving neurons tuned to disparity slant or curvature. Here we extend the local cross-correlation model to include existing physiological and psychophysical evidence indicating that larger disparities are detected by neurons with larger receptive fields (a size/disparity correlation). We show that this simple modification succeeds in reconciling the model with human results, confirming that stereoresolution for disparity gratings may indeed be limited by the size of receptive fields in primary visual cortex

Modelling human visual navigation using multi-view scene reconstruction

It is often assumed that humans generate a 3D reconstruction of the environment, either in egocentric or world-based coordinates, but the steps involved are unknown. Here, we propose two reconstruction-based models, evaluated using data from two tasks in immersive virtual reality. We model the observer’s prediction of landmark location based on standard photogrammetric methods and then combine location predictions to compute likelihood maps of navigation behaviour. In one model, each scene point is treated independently in the reconstruction; in the other, the pertinent variable is the spatial relationship between pairs of points. Participants viewed a simple environment from one location, were transported (virtually) to another part of the scene and were asked to navigate back. Error distributions varied substantially with changes in scene layout; we compared these directly with the likelihood maps to quantify the success of the models. We also measured error distributions when participants manipulated the location of a landmark to match the preceding interval, providing a direct test of the landmark-location stage of the navigation models. Models such as this, which start with scenes and end with a probabilistic prediction of behaviour, are likely to be increasingly useful for understanding 3D vision

The influence of journal submission guidelines on authors' reporting of statistics and use of open research practices.

From January 2014, Psychological Science introduced new submission guidelines that encouraged the use of effect sizes, estimation, and meta-analysis (the "new statistics"), required extra detail of methods, and offered badges for use of open science practices. We investigated the use of these practices in empirical articles published by Psychological Science and, for comparison, by the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, during the period of January 2013 to December 2015. The use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) was extremely high at all times and in both journals. In Psychological Science, the use of confidence intervals increased markedly overall, from 28% of articles in 2013 to 70% in 2015, as did the availability of open data (3 to 39%) and open materials (7 to 31%). The other journal showed smaller or much smaller changes. Our findings suggest that journal-specific submission guidelines may encourage desirable changes in authors' practices

Bringing the real world into the fMRI scanner: Repetition effects for pictures versus real objects

Our understanding of the neural underpinnings of perception is largely built upon studies employing 2-dimensional (2D) planar images. Here we used slow event-related functional imaging in humans to examine whether neural populations show a characteristic repetition-related change in haemodynamic response for real-world 3-dimensional (3D) objects, an effect commonly observed using 2D images. As expected, trials involving 2D pictures of objects produced robust repetition effects within classic object-selective cortical regions along the ventral and dorsal visual processing streams. Surprisingly, however, repetition effects were weak, if not absent on trials involving the 3D objects. These results suggest that the neural mechanisms involved in processing real objects may therefore be distinct from those that arise when we encounter a 2D representation of the same items. These preliminary results suggest the need for further research with ecologically valid stimuli in other imaging designs to broaden our understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying human vision

On the Inverse Problem of Binocular 3D Motion Perception

It is shown that existing processing schemes of 3D motion perception such as interocular velocity difference, changing disparity over time, as well as joint encoding of motion and disparity, do not offer a general solution to the inverse optics problem of local binocular 3D motion. Instead we suggest that local velocity constraints in combination with binocular disparity and other depth cues provide a more flexible framework for the solution of the inverse problem. In the context of the aperture problem we derive predictions from two plausible default strategies: (1) the vector normal prefers slow motion in 3D whereas (2) the cyclopean average is based on slow motion in 2D. Predicting perceived motion directions for ambiguous line motion provides an opportunity to distinguish between these strategies of 3D motion processing. Our theoretical results suggest that velocity constraints and disparity from feature tracking are needed to solve the inverse problem of 3D motion perception. It seems plausible that motion and disparity input is processed in parallel and integrated late in the visual processing hierarchy

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors: an economic modelling study from Australia

BackgroundA large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.MethodsSimulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.ResultsOver the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.ConclusionsReductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.<br /

Cigarette smoke induces genetic instability in airway epithelial cells by suppressing FANCD2 expression

Chromosomal abnormalities are commonly found in bronchogenic carcinoma cells, but the molecular causes of chromosomal instability (CIN) and their relationship to cigarette smoke has not been defined. Because the Fanconi anaemia (FA)/BRCA pathway is essential for maintenance of chromosomal stability, we tested the hypothesis that cigarette smoke suppresses that activity of this pathway. Here, we show that cigarette smoke condensate (CSC) inhibited translation of FANCD2 mRNA (but not FANCC or FANCG) in normal airway epithelial cells and that this suppression of FANCD2 expression was sufficient to induce both genetic instability and programmed cell death in the exposed cell population. Cigarette smoke condensate also suppressed FANCD2 function and induced CIN in bronchogenic carcinoma cells, but these cells were resistant to CSC-induced apoptosis relative to normal airway epithelial cells. We, therefore, suggest that CSC exerts pressure on airway epithelial cells that results in selection and emergence of genetically unstable somatic mutant clones that may have lost the capacity to effectively execute an apoptotic programme. Carcinogen-mediated suppression of FANCD2 gene expression provides a plausible molecular mechanism for CIN in bronchogenic carcinogenesis