Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Deriving phytoplankton size classes from satellite data: Validation along a trophic gradient in the eastern Atlantic Ocean

In recent years, the global distribution of phytoplankton functional types (PFT) and phytoplankton size classes (PSC) has been determined by remote sensing. Many of these methods rely on interpretation of phytoplankton size or type from pigment data, but independent validation has been difficult due to lack of appropriate in situ data on cell size. This work uses in situ data (photosynthetic pigments concentration and cell abundances) from the north-east Atlantic, along a trophic gradient, sampled from 2005 to 2010, as well as Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) data for the same region, to test a previously developed conceptual model, which calculates the fractional contributions of pico-, nano- and micro-plankton to total phytoplankton chlorophyll biomass (Brewin et al., 2010). The application of the model proved to be successful, as shown by low mean absolute error between data and model fit. However, regional values obtained for the model parameters had some effect on the relative distribution of size classes as a function of chlorophyll-a, compared with the results according to the original model. The regional parameterisation yielded a dominance of micro-plankton contribution for chlorophyll-a concentrations greater than 0.5 mg m− 3, rather than from 1.3 mg m− 3 in the original model. Intracellular chlorophyll-a (Chla) per cell, for each size class, was computed from the cell enumeration results (microscope counts and flow cytometry) and the chlorophyll-a concentration for that size class given by the model. The median intracellular chlorophyll-a values computed were 0.004, 0.224 and 26.78 pg Chla cell− 1 for pico-, nano-, and micro-plankton respectively. This is generally consistent with the literature, thereby providing an indirect validation of the method based on pigments to assign size classes. Using a satellite-derived composite image of chlorophyll-a for the study area, a map of cell abundance was generated based on the computed intracellular chlorophyll-a for each size-class, thus extending the remote-sensing method for mapping size classes of phytoplankton from chlorophyll-a concentration to mapping cell numbers in each class. The map reveals the ubiquitous presence of pico-plankton, and shows that all size classes are more abundant in more productive areas

Boosting BCG with recombinant modified vaccinia ankara expressing antigen 85A: Different boosting intervals and implications for efficacy trials

Objectives. To investigate the safety and immunogenicity of boosting BCG with modified vaccinia Ankara expressing antigen 85A (MVA85A), shortly after BCG vaccination, and to compare this first with the immunogenicity of BCG vaccination alone and second with a previous clinical trial where MVA85A was administered more than 10 years after BCG vaccination. Design. There are two clinical trials reported here: a Phase I observational trial with MVA85A; and a Phase IV observational trial with BCG. These clinical trials were all conducted in the UK in healthy, HIV negative, BCG naı¨ve adults. Subjects were vaccinated with BCG alone; or BCG and then subsequently boosted with MVA85A four weeks later (short interval). The outcome measures, safety and immunogenicity, were monitored for six months. The immunogenicity results from this short interval BCG prime–MVA85A boost trial were compared first with the BCG alone trial and second with a previous clinical trial where MVA85A vaccination was administered many years after vaccination with BCG. Results. MVA85A was safe and highly immunogenic when administered to subjects who had recently received BCG vaccination. When the short interval trial data presented here were compared with the previous long interval trial data, there were no significant differences in the magnitude of immune responses generated when MVA85A was administered shortly after, or many years after BCG vaccination. Conclusions. The clinical trial data presented here provides further evidence of the ability of MVA85A to boost BCG primed immune responses. This boosting potential is not influenced by the time interval between prior BCG vaccination and boosting with MVA85A. These findings have important implications for the design of efficacy trials with MVA85A. Boosting BCG induced anti-mycobacterial immunity in either infancy or adolescence are both potential applications for this vaccine, given the immunological data presented here. Trial Registration. ClinicalTrials.Oxford University was the sponsor for all the clinical trials reported here

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase

Prophylactic Effect of a Therapeutic Vaccine against TB Based on Fragments of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The prophylactic capacity of the RUTI® vaccine, based on fragmented cells of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, has been evaluated in respect to aerosol challenge with virulent bacilli. Subcutaneous vaccination significantly reduced viable bacterial counts in both lungs and spleens of C57Bl mice, when challenged 4 weeks after vaccination. RUTI® protected the spleen less than BCG. Following a 9 month vaccination-challenge interval, protection was observed for the lungs, but not for the spleen. Survival of infected guinea pigs was prolonged by vaccination given 5 weeks before challenge. Inoculations of RUTI® shortly after infection significantly reduced the viable bacterial counts in the lungs, when compared with infected control mice. Thus, vaccination by RUTI® has potential for both the prophylaxis and immunotherapy of tuberculosis

Polyfunctional T cell responses in children in early stages of chronic Trypanosoma cruzi infection contrast with monofunctional responses of long-term infected adults

Background: Adults with chronic Trypanosoma cruzi exhibit a poorly functional T cell compartment, characterized by monofunctional (IFN-γ-only secreting) parasite-specific T cells and increased levels of terminally differentiated T cells. It is possible that persistent infection and/or sustained exposure to parasites antigens may lead to a progressive loss of function of the immune T cells. Methodology/Principal Findings: To test this hypothesis, the quality and magnitude of T. cruzi-specific T cell responses were evaluated in T. cruzi-infected children and compared with long-term T. cruzi-infected adults with no evidence of heart failure. The phenotype of CD4+ T cells was also assessed in T. cruzi-infected children and uninfected controls. Simultaneous secretion of IFN-γ and IL-2 measured by ELISPOT assays in response to T. cruzi antigens was prevalent among T. cruzi-infected children. Flow cytometric analysis of co-expression profiles of CD4+ T cells with the ability to produce IFN-γ, TNF-α, or to express the co-stimulatory molecule CD154 in response to T. cruzi showed polyfunctional T cell responses in most T. cruzi-infected children. Monofunctional T cell responses and an absence of CD4+TNF-α+-secreting T cells were observed in T. cruzi-infected adults. A relatively high degree of activation and differentiation of CD4+ T cells was evident in T. cruzi-infected children. Conclusions/Significance: Our observations are compatible with our initial hypothesis that persistent T. cruzi infection promotes eventual exhaustion of immune system, which might contribute to disease progression in long-term infected subjects.Fil: Albareda, María Cecilia. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Parasitología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud. Hospital Interzonal de Agudos "Eva Perón"; ArgentinaFil: de Rissio, Ana María. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Parasitología; ArgentinaFil: Tomas, Gonzalo. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Parasitología; ArgentinaFil: Serjan, Alicia. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos "Juan A. Fernández"; ArgentinaFil: Alvarez, María Gabriela. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud. Hospital Interzonal de Agudos "Eva Perón"; ArgentinaFil: Viotti, Rodolfo Jorge. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud. Hospital Interzonal de Agudos "Eva Perón"; ArgentinaFil: Fichera, Laura Edith. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Parasitología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Esteva, Mónica Inés. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Parasitología; ArgentinaFil: Potente, Daniel Fernando. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud. Hospital Interzonal de Agudos "Eva Perón"; ArgentinaFil: Armenti, Alejandro. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud. Hospital Interzonal de Agudos "Eva Perón"; ArgentinaFil: Tarleton, Rick L.. University of Georgia; Estados UnidosFil: Laucella, Susana Adriana. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud. Instituto Nacional de Parasitología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Analytical methods in wineries: is it time to change?

A review of the methods for the most common parameters determined in wine—namely, ethanol, sulfur dioxide, reducing sugars, polyphenols, organic acids, total and volatile acidity, iron, soluble solids, pH, and color—reported in the last 10 years is presented here. The definition of the given parameter, official and usual methods in wineries appear at the beginning of each section, followed by the methods reported in the last decade divided into discontinuous and continuous methods, the latter also are grouped in nonchromatographic and chromatographic methods because of the typical characteristics of each subgroup. A critical comparison between continuous and discontinuous methods for the given parameter ends each section. Tables summarizing the features of the methods and a conclusions section may help users to select the most appropriate method and also to know the state-of-the-art of analytical methods in this area

Erufosine, a novel alkylphosphocholine, in acute myeloid leukemia: single activity and combination with other antileukemic drugs

Alkylphosphocholines represent a new class of cytostatic drugs with a novel mode of action. Erufosine (ErPC3), the first compound of this class that can be administered intravenously, has recently been shown to be active against human tumor and leukemic cell lines. METHODS: In order to evaluate the antileukemic potential of ErPC3 in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) the lethal concentration 50% (LC 50) was determined using WST-1 assay. For analysis of cell death, staining for Annexin V and activated caspase 3 was performed. An interaction analysis was performed by calculation of combination index and construction of isobolograms. RESULTS: The LC 50 was 7.4 microg/ml after 24 h and 3.2 microg/ml after 72 h in HL 60 cells and 30.1 and 8.6 microg/ml, respectively, in 19 fresh samples from patients with AML. ErPC3 was found to be cytotoxic in HL60 cells with distinct activation of caspase 3. ErPC3 was not cross-resistant with cytarabine, idarubicine and etoposide as shown by the linear relation of respective LC 50s. The latter agents, however, exerted an additive cytotoxicity in combination with ErPC3 as revealed by isobologram analysis and combination index, although results are uneven for idarubicine. CONCLUSION: Based on these data ErPC3 appears as a novel antileukemic candidate drug, which needs to be explored further in the treatment of AML

Predicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices

BACKGROUND: Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. RESULTS: Baseline scenario calculations show that close to 200 mil ha or around 5% of todays forest area will be lost between 2006 and 2025, resulting in a release of additional 17.5 GtC. Today's forest cover will shrink by around 500 million hectares, which is 1/8 of the current forest cover, within the next 100 years. The accumulated carbon release during the next 100 years amounts to 45 GtC, which is 15% of the total carbon stored in forests today. Incentives of 6 US$/tC for vulnerable standing biomass payed every 5 year will bring deforestation down by 50$/year. On the other hand a carbon tax of 12 $/tC harvested forest biomass will also cut deforestation by half. The tax income will, if enforced, decrease from 6 billion US$ in 2005 to 4.3 billion US$in 2025 and 0.7 billion US$ in 2100 due to decreasing deforestation speed. CONCLUSION: Avoiding deforestation requires financial mechanisms that make retention of forests economically competitive with the currently often preferred option to seek profits from other land uses. Incentive payments need to be at a very high level to be effective against deforestation. Taxes on the other hand will extract budgetary revenues from the regions which are already poor. A combination of incentives and taxes could turn out to be a viable solution for this problem. Increasing the value of forest land and thereby make it less easily prone to deforestation would act as a strong incentive to increase productivity of agricultural and fuelwood production, which could be supported by revenues generated by the deforestation tax

Lambda and Antilambda polarization from deep inelastic muon scattering

We report results of the first measurements of Lambda and Antilambda polarization produced in deep inelastic polarized muon scattering on the nucleon. The results are consistent with an expected trend towards positive polarization with increasing x_F. The polarizations of Lambda and Antilambda appear to have opposite signs. A large negative polarization for Lambda at low positive x_F is observed and is not explained by existing models.A possible interpretation is presented.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure