Mortality From Cardiovascular Diseases in Sub-saharan Africa, 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis of Data From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been the leading cause of death in developed countries for most of the last century. Most CVD deaths, however, occur in low- and middle-income, developing countries (LMICs) and there is great concern that CVD mortality and burden are rapidly increasing in LMICs as a result of population growth, ageing and health transitions. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where all countries are part of the LMICs, the pattern, magnitude and trends in CVD deaths remain incompletely understood, which limits formulation of data-driven regional and national health policies

Reporting of health estimates prior to GATHER: a scoping review

Background: Generating estimates of health indicators at the global, regional, and country levels is increasingly in demand in order to meet reporting requirements for global and country targets, such as the sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, such estimates are sensitive to availability of input data, underlying analytic assumptions, variability in statistical techniques, and often have important limitations. From a user perspective, there is often a lack of transparency and replicability. In order to define best practices in reporting data and methods used to calculate health estimates, the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) working group developed a minimum checklist of 18 items that must be reported within each study publishing health estimates, so that users may make an assessment of the quality of the estimate. Objective: We conducted a scoping review to assess the state of reporting amongst a cross-sectional sample of studies published prior to the publication of GATHER. Methods: We generated a sample of UN reports and journal articles through a combination of a Medline search and hand-searching published health estimates. From these studies we extracted the percentage of studies correctly reporting each item on the checklist, the proportion of items reported per study (the GATHER performance score), and how this score varied depending on study type. Results: The average proportion of items reported per study was 0.47, and the poorest-performing items related to documentation and availability of input data, availability of the statistical code used and the subsequent output data, and a complete detailed description of all the steps of the data analysis. Conclusions: Methods for health estimates are not currently fully reported, and the implementation of the GATHER guidelines will improve the availability of information required to make an assessment of study quality

Tranexamic acid for the prevention of postpartum bleeding in women with anaemia: study protocol for an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) is responsible for about 100,000 maternal deaths every year, most of which occur in low- and middle-income countries. Tranexamic acid (TXA) reduces bleeding by inhibiting the enzymatic breakdown of fibrin blood clots. TXA decreases blood loss in surgery and reduces death due to bleeding after trauma. When given within 3 h of birth, TXA reduces deaths due to bleeding in women with PPH. However, for many women, treatment of PPH is too late to prevent death. Over one third of pregnant women in the world are anaemic and many are severely anaemic. These women have an increased risk of PPH and suffer more severe outcomes if PPH occurs. There is an urgent need to identify a safe and effective way to reduce postpartum bleeding in anaemic women. METHODS/DESIGN: The WOMAN-2 trial is an international, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to quantify the effects of TXA on postpartum bleeding in women with moderate or severe anaemia. Ten thousand women with moderate or severe anaemia who have given birth vaginally will be randomised to receive 1 g of TXA or matching placebo by intravenous injection immediately (within 15 min) after the umbilical cord is cut or clamped. The primary outcome is the proportion of women with a clinical diagnosis of primary PPH. The cause of PPH will be described. Data on maternal health and wellbeing, maternal blood loss and its consequences, and other health outcomes will be collected as secondary outcomes. The main analyses will be on an 'intention-to-treat' basis, irrespective of whether the allocated treatment was received. Results will be presented as appropriate effect estimates with a measure of precision (95% confidence intervals). Subgroup analyses will be based on the severity of anaemia (moderate versus severe) and type of labour (induced or augmented versus spontaneous). A study with 10,000 patients will have over 90% power to detect a 25% relative reduction from 10 to 7.5% in PPH. The trial will be conducted in hospitals in Africa and Asia. DISCUSSION: The WOMAN-2 trial should provide reliable evidence for the effects of TXA for preventing postpartum bleeding in women with anaemia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN62396133 . Registered on 7 December 2017; ClincalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03475342 . Registered on 23 March 2018

Investigation of relative risk estimates from studies of the same population with contrasting response rates and designs

Background: There is little empirical evidence regarding the generalisability of relative risk estimates from studies which have relatively low response rates or are of limited representativeness. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in exposure-outcome relationships in studies of the same population with different response rates and designs by comparing estimates from the 45 and Up Study, a population-based cohort study (self-administered postal questionnaire, response rate 18%), and the New South Wales Population Health Survey (PHS) (computer-assisted telephone interview, response rate ~60%). Methods: Logistic regression analysis of questionnaire data from 45 and Up Study participants (n = 101,812) and 2006/ 2007 PHS participants (n = 14,796) was used to calculate prevalence estimates and odds ratios (ORs) for comparable variables, adjusting for age, sex and remoteness. ORs were compared using Wald tests modelling each study separately, with and without sampling weights. Results: Prevalence of some outcomes (smoking, private health insurance, diabetes, hypertension, asthma) varied between the two studies. For highly comparable questionnaire items, exposure-outcome relationship patterns were almost identical between the studies and ORs for eight of the ten relationships examined did not differ significantly. For questionnaire items that were only moderately comparable, the nature of the observed relationships did not differ materially between the two studies, although many ORs differed significantly. Conclusions: These findings show that for a broad range of risk factors, two studies of the same population with varying response rate, sampling frame and mode of questionnaire administration yielded consistent estimates of exposure-outcome relationships. However, ORs varied between the studies where they did not use identical questionnaire items

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk factors 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. Methods: GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. Results: CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. Conclusions: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country’s performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country

Serious adverse events reported in placebo randomised controlled trials of oral naltrexone: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Naltrexone is an opioid antagonist used in many different conditions, both licensed and unlicensed. It is used at widely varying doses from 3 - 250 mg. The aim of this review was to evaluate the safety of oral naltrexone by examining the risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of naltrexone compared to placebo. Methods A systematic search of Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, other databases and clinical trials registries was undertaken up to March 2018. Parallel placebo-controlled RCTs longer than 4 weeks published after 1/1/2001, of oral naltrexone at any dose were selected. Any condition and age group were included, excluding only studies for opioid or ex-opioid users, due to possible opioid/opioid antagonist interactions. The systematic review used the guidance of the Cochrane Handbook throughout. Numerical data was independently extracted by two people and cross-checked. Risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Meta-analyses were performed using Stata 15 and R, using random and fixed effects models throughout. Results Eighty-nine RCTs with 11194 participants were found, studying alcohol use disorders, various psychiatric disorders, impulse control disorders, other addictions, obesity, Crohn’s disease, fibromyalgia and cancers. Twenty-six studies (4,960 participants) recorded SAEs occurring by arm of study. There was no evidence of increased risk of SAEs for naltrexone compared to placebo, relative risk (RR) 0.84 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.06). Sensitivity analyses pooling risk differences supported this conclusion (RD = -0.01 (-0.02, 0.00)) and subgroup analyses showed that results were consistent across different doses and disease groups. The quality of evidence for this outcome was judged high using the GRADE criteria. Conclusions Naltrexone does not appear to increase the risk of SAEs over placebo. These findings confirm the safety of naltrexone when used in licensed indications and encourage investments to undertake efficacy studies in unlicensed indications

Red clover-derived isoflavones and mammographic breast density: a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial [ISRCTN42940165]

INTRODUCTION: Isoflavones are hypothesized to protect against breast cancer, but it is not clear whether they act as oestrogens or anti-oestrogens in breast tissue. Our aim was to determine the effects of taking a red clover-derived isoflavone supplement daily for 1 year on mammographic breast density. Effects on oestradiol, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), lymphocyte tyrosine kinase activity and menopausal symptoms were also assessed. METHODS: A total of 205 women (age range 49–65 years) with Wolfe P2 or DY mammographic breast patterns were randomly assigned to receive either a red clover-derived isoflavone tablet (26 mg biochanin A, 16 mg formononetin, 1 mg genistein and 0.5 mg daidzein) or placebo. Change in mammographic breast density, serum oestradiol, FSH, LH, menopausal symptoms and lymphocyte tyrosine kinase activity from baseline to 12 months were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 177 women completed the trial. Mammographic breast density decreased in both groups but the difference between the treatment and placebo was not statistically significant. There was a significant interaction between treatment group and oestrogen receptor (ESR1) PvuII polymorphism for the change in estimated percentage breast density (mean ± standard deviation): TT isoflavone 1.4 ± 12.3% and TT placebo -9.6 ± 14.2%; CT isoflavone -5.2 ± 12.0% and CT placebo -2.8 ± 10.3%; and CC isoflavone -3.4 ± 9.7% and CC placebo -1.1 ± 9.5%. There were no statistically significant treatment effects on oestradiol, FSH, or LH (assessed only in postmenopausal women), or on lymphocyte tyrosine kinase activity. Baseline levels of menopausal symptoms were low, and there were no statistically significant treatment effects on frequency of hot flushes or other menopausal symptoms. CONCLUSION: In contrast to studies showing that conventional hormone replacement therapies increase mammographic breast density, the isoflavone supplement did not increase mammographic breast density in this population of women. Furthermore, there were no effects on oestradiol, gonadotrophins, lymphocyte tyrosine kinase activity, or menopausal symptoms

The Medical Genome Reference Bank contains whole genome and phenotype data of 2570 healthy elderly

Population health research is increasingly focused on the genetic determinants of healthy ageing, but there is no public resource of whole genome sequences and phenotype data from healthy elderly individuals. Here we describe the first release of the Medical Genome Reference Bank (MGRB), comprising whole genome sequence and phenotype of 2570 elderly Australians depleted for cancer, cardiovascular disease, and dementia. We analyse the MGRB for single-nucleotide, indel and structural variation in the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes. MGRB individuals have fewer disease-associated common and rare germline variants, relative to both cancer cases and the gnomAD and UK Biobank cohorts, consistent with risk depletion. Age-related somatic changes are correlated with grip strength in men, suggesting blood-derived whole genomes may also provide a biologic measure of age-related functional deterioration. The MGRB provides a broadly applicable reference cohort for clinical genetics and genomic association studies, and for understanding the genetics of healthy ageing