Designing and analysing feasibility studies of complex interventions: challenges related to assessing stop/go criteria

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are time-consuming and costly so funders often require evidence of feasibility before they will fund large scale trials1. Feasibility studies can provide invaluable evidence relating to the practicalities of conducting large RCTs and can improve their likelihood of success. However, conducting feasibility studies of complex interventions and deciding whether or not to proceed to a full RCT, is not always straightforward. We will present the challenges encountered during the design and analysis of two feasibility studies: OBI (Optimised Behavioural Intervention for avoidant chronic low back pain patients) and MIDSHIPS (Multicentre Intervention Designed for Self-Harm using Interpersonal Problem Solving) and discuss the steps taken to overcome them. Recruiting and treating participants in a limited number of centres, with few therapists, is a complex challenge for both of these feasibility studies and crucial to determining their success; we will present the lessons learnt from our experience. We will also discuss the impact of missing data on our ability to assess stop/go criteria with respect to proof-of-concept. Estimating follow-up questionnaire response rates is an important objective in both studies, hence we will discuss the methods employed to maximise data collection and present our approach for providing robust estimates of response rates for the phase III trials

The Emergence of Miller's Magic Number on a Sparse Distributed Memory

Human memory is limited in the number of items held in one's mind—a limit known as “Miller's magic number”. We study the emergence of such limits as a result of the statistics of large bitvectors used to represent items in memory, given two postulates: i) the Sparse Distributed Memory; and ii) chunking through averaging. Potential implications for theoretical neuroscience are discussed

The construction of ethnic identity: insights from identity process theory

Ethnicity has received much empirical and theoretical attention in the social sciences. Yet, it has scarcely been explored in terms of its relationship with the motivational principles of identity. Here it is argued that there is much heuristic and predictive value in applying identity process theory (IPT), a socio-psychological model of identity threat, to the substantive literature on ethnicity. The paper explores the potential psychological benefits of ethnic identification. Key theoretical strands from anthropology and sociology, such as the ‘relational self’ in ethnic identification, are discussed in relation to IPT. The intergroup dimension of ethnic identification is explored through the discussion of ethnic 'boundaries'. Finally, the paper discusses the construct of 'hybridization' in relation to social psychology. This paper attempts to reconcile psychological and sociological perspectives on ethnic identification, advocating a multi-methodological approach. Key theoretical points are outlined in the form of testable hypotheses which are open to empirical exploration

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Redox Modulation at Work: Natural Phytoprotective Polysulfanes From Alliums Based on Redox-Active Sulfur

Purpose of review: This article provides a brief overview of natural phytoprotective products of allium with a special focus on the therapeutic potential of diallyl polysulfanes from garlic, their molecular targets and their fate in the living organisms. A comprehensive overview of antimicrobial and anticancer properties of published literature is presented for the reader to understand the effective concentrations of polysulfanes and their sensitivity towards different human pathogenic microbes, fungi, and cancer cell lines. Recent findings: The article finds polysulfanes potentials as new generation novel antibiotics and chemo preventive agent. The effective dose rates of polysulfanes for antimicrobial properties are in the range of 0.5–40 mg/L and for anticancer 20–100 μM. The molecular targets for these redox modulators are mainly cellular thiols as well as inhibition and/or activation of certain cellular proteins in cancer cell lines. Summary: Antimicrobial and anticancer activities of polysulfanes published in the literature indicate that with further development, they could be promising candidates for cancer prevention due to their selectivity towards abnormal cells

Delivering an Optimised Behavioural Intervention (OBI) to people with low back pain with high psychological risk; results and lessons learnt from a feasibility randomised controlled trial of Contextual Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CCBT) vs. Physiotherapy

Background: Low Back Pain (LBP) remains a common and costly problem. Psychological obstacles to recovery have been identified, but psychological and behavioural interventions have produced only moderate improvements. Reviews of trials have suggested that the interventions lack clear theoretical basis, are often compromised by low dose, lack of fidelity, and delivery by non-experts. In addition, interventions do not directly target known risk mechanisms. We identified a theory driven intervention (Contexual Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, CCBT) that directly targets an evidence-based risk mechanism (avoidance and ensured dose and delivery were optimised. This feasibility study was designed to test the credibility and acceptability of optimised CCBT against physiotherapy for avoidant LBP patients, and to test recruitment, delivery of the intervention and response rates prior to moving to a full definitive trial. Methods: A randomised controlled feasibility trial with patients randomised to receive CCBT or physiotherapy. CCBT was delivered by trained supervised psychologists on a one to one basis and comprised up to 8 one-hour sessions. Physiotherapy comprised back to fitness group exercises with at least 60 % of content exercise-based. Patients were eligible to take part if they had back pain for more than 3 months, and scored above a threshold indicating fear avoidance, catastrophic beliefs and distress. Results: 89 patients were recruited. Uptake rates were above those predicted. Scores for credibility and acceptability of the interventions met the set criteria. Response rates at three and six months fell short of the 75 % target. Problems associated with poor response rates were identified and successfully resolved, rates increased to 77 % at 3 months, and 68 % at 6 months. Independent ratings of treatment sessions indicated that CCBT was delivered to fidelity. Numbers were too small for formal analysis. Although average scores for acceptance were higher in the CCBT group than in the group attending physiotherapy (increase of 7.9 versus 5.1) and change in disability and pain from baseline to 6 months were greater in the CCBT group than in the physiotherapy group, these findings should be interpreted with caution. Conclusions: CCBT is a credible and acceptable intervention for LBP patients who exhibit psychological obstacles to recovery

Anti-cyanobacterial activity of Moringa oleifera seeds

Filtrates from crushed Moringa oleifera seeds were tested for their effects on growth and Photosystem II efficiency of the common bloom-forming cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa. M. aeruginosa populations exhibited good growth in controls and treatments with 4- and 8-mg crushed Moringa seeds per liter, having similar growth rates of 0.50 (±0.01) per day. In exposures of 20- to 160-mg crushed Moringa seeds L−1, growth rates were negative and on average −0.23 (±0.05) .day−1. Presumably, in the higher doses of 20- to 160-mg crushed seeds per liter, the cyanobacteria died, which was supported by a rapid drop in the Photosystem II efficiency (ΦPSII), while the ΦPSII was high and unaffected in 0, 4, and 8 mg L−1. High-density populations of M. aeruginosa (chlorophyll-a concentrations of ∼270 µg L−1) were reduced to very low levels within 2 weeks of exposure to ≥80-mg crushed seeds per liter. At the highest dosage of 160 mg L−1, the ΦPSII dropped to zero rapidly and remained nil during the course of the experiment (14 days). Hence, under laboratory conditions, a complete wipeout of the bloom could be achieved. This is the first study that yielded evidence for cyanobactericidal activity of filtrate from crushed Moringa seeds, suggesting that Moringa seed extracts might have a potential as an effect-oriented measure lessening cyanobacterial nuisance

Prevention of delirium (POD) for older people in hospital: study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility trial

Background: Delirium is the most frequent complication among older people following hospitalisation. Delirium may be prevented in about one-third of patients using a multicomponent intervention. However, in the United Kingdom, the National Health Service has no routine delirium prevention care systems. We have developed the Prevention of Delirium Programme, a multicomponent delirium prevention intervention and implementation process. We have successfully carried out a pilot study to test the feasibility and acceptability of implementation of the programme. We are now undertaking preliminary testing of the programme. Methods/Design: The Prevention of Delirium Study is a multicentre, cluster randomised feasibility study designed to explore the potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Prevention of Delirium Programme. Sixteen elderly care medicine and orthopaedic/trauma wards in eight National Health Service acute hospitals will be randomised to receive the Prevention of Delirium Programme or usual care. Patients will be eligible for the trial if they have been admitted to a participating ward and are aged 65 years or over. The primary objectives of the study are to provide a preliminary estimate of the effectiveness of the Prevention of Delirium Programme as measured by the incidence of new onset delirium, assess the variability of the incidence of new-onset delirium, estimate the intracluster correlation coefficient and likely cluster size, assess barriers to the delivery of the Prevention of Delirium Programme system of care, assess compliance with the Prevention of Delirium Programme system of care, estimate recruitment and follow-up rates, assess the degree of contamination due to between-ward staff movements, and investigate differences in financial costs and benefits between the Prevention of Delirium Programme system of care and standard practice. Secondary objectives are to investigate differences in the number, severity and length of delirium episodes (including persistent delirium); length of stay in hospital; inhospital mortality; destination at discharge; health-related quality of life and health resource use; physical and social independence; anxiety and depression; and patient experience. Discussion: This feasibility study will be used to gather data to inform the design of a future definitive randomised controlled trial. Trial registration: ISRCTN01187372. Registered 13 March 2014

Reproductive health and access to healthcare facilities: risk factors for depression and anxiety in women with an earthquake experience

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The reproductive and mental health of women contributes significantly to their overall well-being. Three of the eight Millennium Development Goals are directly related to reproductive and sexual health while mental disorders make up three of the ten leading causes of disease burden in low and middle-income countries. Among mental disorders, depression and anxiety are two of the most prevalent. In the context of slower progress in achieving Millennium Development Goals in developing countries and the ever-increasing man-made and natural disasters in these areas, it is important to understand the association between reproductive health and mental health among women with post-disaster experiences.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 387 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) randomly selected from the October 2005 earthquake affected areas of Pakistan. Data on reproductive health was collected using the Centers for Disease Control reproductive health assessment toolkit. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, while earthquake experiences were captured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. The association of either depression or anxiety with socio-demographic variables, earthquake experiences, reproductive health and access to health facilities was estimated using multivariate logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Post-earthquake reproductive health events together with economic deprivation, lower family support and poorer access to health care facilities explained a significant proportion of differences in the experiencing of clinical levels of depression and anxiety. For instance, women losing resources for subsistence, separation from family and experiencing reproductive health events such as having a stillbirth, having had an abortion, having had abnormal vaginal discharge or having had genital ulcers, were at significant risk of depression and anxiety.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The relationship between women's post-earthquake mental health and reproductive health, socio-economic status, and health care access is complex and explained largely by the socio-cultural role of women. It is suggested that interventions that consider gender differences and that are culturally appropriate are likely to reduce the incidence.</p